Country risk March 2011: Middle East drops, sub-Saharan Africa rises
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Current risk score | |||||||||
Current rank | Sept '10 | Country name | Current score | Economic (% score, 30% weighting) | Political (% score, 30% weighting) | Structural (% score, 10% weighting) | Credit rating (score out of 10, weighting 10%) | Debt indicators (score out of 10, weighting 10%) | Access to capital markets (score out of 10, weighting 10%) |
1 | 1 | Norway | 93.44 | 90.40 | 92.97 | 84.10 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
2 | 6 | Luxembourg | 91.03 | 81.00 | 93.67 | 86.25 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
3 | 2 | Switzerland | 89.59 | 82.50 | 87.23 | 86.71 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
4 | 4 | Denmark | 89.21 | 78.33 | 92.10 | 83.25 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
5 | 3 | Sweden | 88.74 | 78.17 | 90.83 | 82.83 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
6 | 12 | Singapore | 87.48 | 78.25 | 86.28 | 83.75 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
7 | 5 | Finland | 86.96 | 74.00 | 89.29 | 79.71 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
8 | 8 | Netherlands | 86.67 | 75.60 | 87.38 | 77.70 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
9 | 7 | Canada | 86.17 | 73.50 | 88.97 | 76.75 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
10 | 10 | Australia | 85.36 | 74.50 | 85.65 | 77.63 | 9.79 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
11 | 9 | Hong Kong | 84.84 | 81.67 | 82.83 | 83.25 | 9.17 | 10.00 | 8.00 |
12 | 13 | Germany | 84.43 | 70.92 | 84.59 | 77.79 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
13 | 11 | Austria | 84.01 | 72.20 | 82.28 | 76.65 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
14 | 14 | New Zealand | 83.62 | 62.67 | 91.15 | 81.50 | 9.58 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
15 | 17 | United States | 81.60 | 60.67 | 85.25 | 78.35 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
16 | 16 | United Kingdom | 80.04 | 59.80 | 82.91 | 74.80 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
17 | 23 | Taiwan | 80.04 | 74.60 | 75.89 | 74.70 | 7.92 | 10.00 | 9.50 |
18 | 17 | France | 79.89 | 62.56 | 79.30 | 73.39 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
19 | 22 | Cyprus | 77.02 | 67.00 | 75.97 | 74.29 | 7.71 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
20 | 20 | Belgium | 76.87 | 62.25 | 78.82 | 71.75 | 9.38 | 10.00 | 8.00 |
21 | 21 | Qatar | 75.53 | 79.75 | 66.17 | 59.81 | 8.75 | 10.00 | 7.00 |
22 | 30 | Macau | 75.52 | 80.00 | 60.00 | 74.00 | 8.13 | 10.00 | 8.00 |
23 | 28 | Malta | 75.27 | 66.67 | 70.41 | 78.75 | 7.29 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
24 | 29 | Czech Republic | 74.77 | 69.55 | 71.83 | 65.59 | 7.29 | 10.00 | 8.50 |
25 | 19 | Japan | 74.66 | 53.80 | 76.79 | 70.80 | 8.54 | 10.00 | 9.88 |
26 | 24 | Slovenia | 74.45 | 57.50 | 76.22 | 65.81 | 8.75 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
27 | 15 | Chile | 73.61 | 75.63 | 75.42 | 68.34 | 7.50 | 7.95 | 6.00 |
28 | 27 | Slovak Republic | 73.42 | 66.00 | 71.79 | 63.20 | 7.50 | 10.00 | 8.25 |
29 | 25 | Korea South | 72.28 | 65.75 | 67.86 | 69.13 | 7.29 | 10.00 | 8.00 |
30 | 32 | Italy | 71.20 | 57.71 | 65.94 | 70.00 | 8.13 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
31 | 40 | Poland | 70.99 | 64.36 | 69.67 | 58.02 | 6.46 | 10.00 | 8.50 |
32 | 39 | Kuwait | 70.47 | 76.00 | 55.34 | 55.00 | 8.54 | 10.00 | 7.00 |
33 | 34 | United Arab Emirates | 69.70 | 67.50 | 59.71 | 53.96 | 8.13 | 10.00 | 8.00 |
34 | 37 | Spain | 67.73 | 44.11 | 71.26 | 67.61 | 9.38 | 10.00 | 7.00 |
35 | 41 | Oman | 67.65 | 71.25 | 61.99 | 54.63 | 7.19 | 10.00 | 5.00 |
36 | 38 | Bahrain | 67.39 | 71.67 | 60.47 | 58.58 | 6.88 | 10.00 | 5.00 |
37 | 31 | Israel | 66.83 | 59.00 | 68.11 | 71.25 | 7.08 | 10.00 | 4.50 |
38 | 35 | Saudi Arabia | 65.12 | 72.14 | 51.67 | 53.36 | 8.13 | 10.00 | 4.50 |
39 | 60 | Malaysia | 64.75 | 60.80 | 60.63 | 65.40 | 6.25 | 8.04 | 7.50 |
40 | 36 | China | 63.55 | 66.88 | 48.47 | 52.41 | 7.71 | 8.73 | 7.25 |
41 | 42 | Brazil | 63.22 | 67.75 | 64.50 | 60.92 | 4.38 | 8.56 | 4.50 |
42 | 45 | Thailand | 63.00 | 65.33 | 52.89 | 66.00 | 5.42 | 9.03 | 6.50 |
43 | 26 | Ireland | 61.72 | 38.27 | 66.69 | 73.52 | 7.92 | 10.00 | 5.00 |
44 | 33 | Portugal | 61.35 | 42.14 | 64.31 | 61.36 | 7.29 | 10.00 | 6.00 |
45 | 63 | Panama | 60.42 | 69.33 | 61.50 | 41.25 | 4.38 | 8.62 | 4.00 |
46 | 47 | Iceland | 59.84 | 41.50 | 73.49 | 61.88 | 4.17 | 10.00 | 5.00 |
47 | 53 | Hungary | 59.67 | 47.55 | 59.41 | 55.89 | 5.00 | 10.00 | 7.00 |
48 | 44 | South Africa | 59.20 | 55.44 | 60.36 | 54.31 | 5.83 | 9.18 | 4.00 |
49 | 65 | Bahamas | 59.16 | 38.00 | 62.74 | 50.00 | 5.94 | 10.00 | 8.00 |
50 | 51 | Estonia | 58.79 | 62.75 | 70.32 | 67.88 | 7.08 | 0.00 | 5.00 |
51 | 48 | Colombia | 58.72 | 64.22 | 61.30 | 58.36 | 3.75 | 8.47 | 3.00 |
52 | 61 | Indonesia | 58.27 | 62.75 | 51.72 | 53.38 | 3.33 | 8.50 | 6.75 |
53 | 43 | Mexico | 58.13 | 56.00 | 55.14 | 62.88 | 5.21 | 8.81 | 4.50 |
54 | 50 | Turkey | 57.07 | 60.94 | 60.07 | 56.70 | 3.33 | 7.25 | 4.50 |
55 | 55 | Lithuania | 57.05 | 47.00 | 62.48 | 57.83 | 5.21 | 6.72 | 6.50 |
56 | 49 | India | 56.96 | 57.00 | 49.66 | 51.82 | 4.38 | 8.40 | 7.00 |
57 | 52 | Russia | 56.83 | 61.56 | 44.30 | 49.04 | 5.21 | 8.45 | 6.50 |
58 | 46 | Peru | 56.70 | 65.25 | 51.76 | 47.56 | 4.38 | 8.95 | 3.50 |
59 | 54 | Croatia | 56.47 | 46.17 | 56.63 | 57.67 | 4.38 | 10.00 | 5.50 |
60 | 66 | Sri Lanka | 54.86 | 56.33 | 52.01 | 71.00 | 1.88 | 8.41 | 5.00 |
61 | 58 | Philippines | 54.46 | 52.67 | 50.08 | 57.50 | 2.92 | 8.23 | 6.75 |
62 | 102 | Botswana | 54.00 | 47.00 | 50.96 | 33.33 | 6.56 | 8.69 | 6.00 |
63 | 59 | Bulgaria | 53.82 | 57.50 | 52.57 | 42.80 | 4.58 | 6.91 | 5.00 |
64 | 68 | Latvia | 52.47 | 46.17 | 61.14 | 54.67 | 3.96 | 6.85 | 4.00 |
65 | 56 | Greece | 52.38 | 38.85 | 56.12 | 59.52 | 3.96 | 10.00 | 4.00 |
66 | 88 | Brunei | 51.81 | 59.00 | 50.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.00 | 9.00 |
67 | 62 | Morocco | 51.28 | 46.67 | 52.21 | 51.75 | 4.17 | 8.78 | 3.50 |
68 | 67 | Jordan | 50.42 | 46.67 | 54.76 | 48.00 | 3.13 | 9.06 | 3.00 |
69 | 83 | Armenia | 49.66 | 52.00 | 51.11 | 50.92 | 2.81 | 7.57 | 3.25 |
70 | 91 | Bermuda | 49.48 | 0.00 | 69.00 | 0.00 | 8.96 | 10.00 | 9.75 |
71 | 75 | Vietnam | 49.46 | 46.00 | 44.26 | 50.83 | 2.29 | 8.27 | 6.75 |
72 | 73 | Romania | 49.09 | 49.78 | 44.79 | 45.19 | 3.96 | 6.99 | 5.25 |
73 | 74 | Costa Rica | 48.81 | 39.00 | 54.44 | 54.38 | 3.33 | 8.02 | 4.00 |
74 | 72 | Kazakhstan | 47.91 | 55.00 | 44.76 | 52.00 | 4.79 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
75 | 57 | Uruguay | 47.79 | 54.50 | 34.72 | 63.13 | 2.92 | 8.33 | 3.50 |
76 | 71 | Georgia | 47.77 | 44.00 | 55.34 | 60.56 | 1.88 | 8.56 | 1.50 |
77 | 77 | Namibia | 47.65 | 50.00 | 63.03 | 58.75 | 4.38 | 0.00 | 3.50 |
78 | 87 | Azerbaijan | 46.95 | 52.75 | 38.91 | 28.44 | 3.96 | 9.12 | 3.50 |
79 | 81 | Libya | 46.85 | 62.67 | 40.52 | 54.58 | 5.94 | 0.00 | 4.50 |
80 | 114 | Honduras | 46.34 | 54.00 | 43.00 | 48.00 | 1.25 | 8.19 | 3.00 |
81 | 69 | Tunisia | 45.41 | 35.50 | 43.22 | 49.69 | 5.00 | 7.35 | 4.50 |
82 | 80 | El Salvador | 45.16 | 50.00 | 45.36 | 36.25 | 3.13 | 6.78 | 3.00 |
83 | 85 | Gabon | 44.85 | 53.00 | 32.07 | 56.50 | 2.50 | 8.21 | 3.00 |
84 | 105 | Mauritius | 44.78 | 29.50 | 43.98 | 31.88 | 5.00 | 9.54 | 5.00 |
85 | 95 | Ghana | 44.71 | 47.71 | 46.94 | 38.39 | 1.56 | 8.89 | 2.00 |
86 | 70 | Serbia | 44.34 | 43.25 | 48.23 | 58.81 | 2.50 | 6.54 | 2.00 |
87 | 90 | Macedonia (FYR) | 44.23 | 46.67 | 44.61 | 38.33 | 3.44 | 7.06 | 2.50 |
88 | 64 | Egypt | 44.01 | 38.11 | 39.69 | 43.36 | 3.54 | 9.30 | 3.50 |
89 | 78 | Ukraine | 43.97 | 46.62 | 42.48 | 54.73 | 1.46 | 6.58 | 3.75 |
90 | 86 | Argentina | 43.73 | 45.63 | 41.68 | 57.03 | 1.04 | 8.32 | 2.50 |
91 | 76 | Lebanon | 43.53 | 45.25 | 45.58 | 61.31 | 1.46 | 7.22 | 1.50 |
92 | 82 | Albania | 42.77 | 38.00 | 41.47 | 48.38 | 1.88 | 8.48 | 3.75 |
93 | 92 | Venezuela | 42.47 | 47.67 | 32.16 | 53.67 | 1.88 | 9.30 | 2.00 |
94 | 118 | Mongolia | 42.09 | 44.33 | 40.85 | 30.00 | 1.88 | 7.63 | 4.00 |
95 | 110 | Nigeria | 42.05 | 45.56 | 33.67 | 45.75 | 2.19 | 9.54 | 2.00 |
96 | 79 | Paraguay | 40.33 | 51.00 | 24.70 | 53.25 | 1.25 | 9.07 | 2.00 |
97 | 112 | Seychelles | 40.27 | 45.00 | 51.00 | 60.00 | 0.63 | 3.37 | 1.50 |
98 | 96 | Belarus | 39.84 | 43.75 | 34.38 | 27.81 | 1.88 | 8.73 | 3.00 |
99 | 101 | Algeria | 39.50 | 45.80 | 37.40 | 50.60 | 0.00 | 5.50 | 4.00 |
100 | 100 | Mozambique | 38.79 | 41.00 | 47.00 | 0.00 | 1.56 | 8.74 | 2.00 |
With special thanks to the World Bank, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service, Fitch IBCA and the following economists/institutions for their contributions: Adam Antoniak, Bank BPH SA; Anjali Verma, MF Global Sify Securities I Pvt Ltd; Azusa Kato, BNP Paribas; Bernard Musyck, Frederick University; Camilo Perez, Banco de Bogota; Cheng Cheng-Mount, Citibank Taiwan; Colen Garrow, Brait SA Ltd; Dr Olga Mrinska, Institute of Local and Regional Initiatives; Eduard Hagara, ING Barings; Francesca Panelli, Aletti Gestielle SGR SPA; Hans Holzhacker, Nenci Francesca and Rozália Pál, UniCredit Group; Helena Horska, Raiffeisenbank; John R. Harris, Boston University; Julien Manceaux and Dmitry Polevoy, ING; Madan Sabnavis, Credit Analysis and Research Ltd; Maristella Ansanelli, Banco Fibra; Michael Kappeler, LGT Capital Management; Michael Loufir, National Bank of Greece; Nassib Ghobril, Byblos Bank; Nuchjarin Panarode, Capital Nomura Securities; Olena Bilan, Dragon-Capital; Oliver Kovacs, ICEG European Center; Panicos Demetriades, University of Leicester; Peter Meister, BHF Bank Aktien Gesellschaft; Philip Hanson, Chatham House; Plamen Plantev, ISIS; Pornthep Jubandhu, Siam Commercial Bank; Robin Clements, UBS; Shakill K. Hasssan, University of Cape Town, Tiina Helenius, Handelsbanken; Vicky Redwood, Capital Economics; Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, BG Capital; Henry Mo, Credit Suisse; Lana Soelistianingsih, PT Samuel Sekuritas; Michal Dybula, BNP Paribas; Georgy Y. Ganev, Centre for Liberal Strategies; Wei Li, Standard Chartered Bank China; Pragrom Pathomboorn, Siam Commercial Bank; Aysegul Aykol Kocabas; Tekstil Bankasi; Martin Pelucha, University of Economics in Prague ; Galina Borisova Hale, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Ilias Lekkos, Piraeus bank, Athens; Dalton Gardimam, Banco Bradesco; M. Nicolas J. Firzli, Canadian European Economic Council; Yasuo Yamamoto, Mizuho Research Institute.