Sometimes, I am pleased to say, I get there before others. Those who are successful normally spot signals before they become trends and navigate accordingly. I can think of many examples: Howard Schultz, the founder of Starbucks, who realized people would pay £2.50 for a half decent cup of coffee; Steve Jobs, who saw that consumers wanted design as well as functionality; and even Barack Obama, who recognized in 2008 that the US public were desperate for change. Of course, Obama now faces a difficult re-election battle as it is not clear his tenure delivered the change that he promised.
As a journalist, one tries to be first: either first with the breaking news or first with the most insightful analysis. In my October column, I highlighted two stories that had not yet been picked to pieces by the financial media. The first story was that Larry Fink, the high-profile chief executive of BlackRock, was a possible contender for Treasury secretary should Obama be re-elected. Since my article was written, many other journalists have picked up on Larry’s ambitions. Also in October, I probed the wheels coming off the Bumi wagon. I urged readers to "follow developments at the company closely because this is one opera where the fat lady hasn’t sung yet".