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Saving the world, one bond at a time
July 2017
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It is rare for financial market professionals to feel they are helping to save the world, but a new capital markets deal from the World Bank to help the poorest countries cope with pandemics might be doing just that.
FX: CLS and Traiana extend aggregation service to four EM currencies
July 2017
The past few years have seen CLS beef up its offerings in operational risk management well beyond its core settlement business, with services such as netting and compression; the expansion of its aggregation service to emerging market (EM) FX is the latest string to its bow.
Regulation: Chile to adopt Basel III
July 2017
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Implementation of global standard will lead to higher tier-1 capital levels; banks well capitalized but predictions of sovereign downgrades cloud outlook.
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International Bank of Azerbaijan: Stating the obvious
July 2017
Azeri default reminds investors that implicit guarantees aren’t worth the paper they’re not written on.
CEEMEA Eurobond sales top $133 billion in record first half
July 2017
Spreads at multi-year lows as demand remains buoyant; Investors reverse underweight positions.
Serbia’s credit risk is lower than the rating agencies suggest
July 2017
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The economy is on the mend and it is high time the raters take notice.
Moroccan bank targets stake in Bank of Kigali
July 2017
Morocco’s Banque Centrale Populaire has entered into negotiations with Bank of Kigali to acquire a minority stake in the Rwandan bank.
Home truths from emerging markets
July 2017
It has been a challenging few years in emerging market banking, so it is hard to blame lenders for wanting to put a positive spin on difficult situations.
Mexico’s leading banks face new competition
June 2017
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Wave of IPOs could propel ‘mid-sized’ banks; HSBC emerging as a potentially serious player.
Optimism about Argentina bubbling over
June 2017
High-yield sovereign issuer sells a $2.75 billion century bond; bank valuations ‘hyped’ but room still seen to grow.
Dana Gas puts Islamic finance to the test
June 2017
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Dana Gas, an Emirati gas company, is using Shariah non-compliance as an argument in its sukuk restructuring talks. That remarkable move, if successful, could undermine the whole system of trust built around Islamic finance in the Middle East.
Qatar crisis shatters its low-risk credentials
June 2017
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The decision to isolate Doha for its links to Islamist terrorism has plunged the region into turmoil and sent its creditworthiness into a spin.
Philippines' Espenilla: publicly positive appointment, but behind closed doors…
June 2017
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Middle East: Lebanese banks step back from Syria
June 2017
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Several banks write off Syrian operations; they continue to be big shareholders.
Malaysia merger mania speaks to changing domestic and regional challenges
June 2017
A suggested merger of two of Malaysia’s large banks and the sale of half of another’s international brokerage to a Chinese peer have shaken up the country’s financial services industry in the space of a week – what’s happening?
Lebanon central bank’s Salamé prepares for the next storm
June 2017
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After another tumultuous year for banking in Lebanon, the central bank governor discusses the political pushback against his actions, the potential impact of a new US law targeting Hezbollah and the prospects for his reappointment.
Emerging Europe banking: EU pressure pays off
June 2017
European authorities deserve credit for pushing through reform of Slovenia’s banking sector.
Emerging Europe: Croatia’s banks welcome return of credit demand after six-year lull
June 2017
Economic recovery encourages borrowers; fiscal consolidation revives eurozone entry talk.
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Asia: Indonesia’s tax amnesty bears fruit
May 2017
Mulyani’s programme finds success much closer to home than expected.
Central Asia: Kazakhstan rallies equity investors for latest privatization drive
May 2017
First dual listings promised for early 2018; investors set to seek reassurance on minority rights.
Asia: Indonesia’s side of the JPMorgan row
May 2017
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It turns out that part of the reason Indonesia reacted so badly to the JPMorgan equities call was because it was downgraded more than Brazil.
Emerging Europe: Hungary’s bankers breathe again as mortgage fears subside
May 2017
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The central bank’s plan to encourage lenders to make consumer-friendly home loans doesn’t appear to be an attack on their profits. Yet.
FX: Pragma unleashes algo traders on NDF market
May 2017
The non-deliverable forward (NDF) market has been among the fastest growing corners of the FX market, as investors looking for yield increasingly turn their attention to emerging market (EM) currencies. Now, with Pragma’s algo-trading clients joining the party, liquidity could be set to surge even higher.
Azerbaijan’s risks are spiralling
May 2017
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Confidence in the oil producer is wavering as a bank crisis unfolds.
Ukraine: A courageous central banker
May 2017
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Ukraine’s Gontareva should be lauded for her efforts to clean up Ukraine’s rotten banking system.
Emerging Europe banking: How do you solve a problem like Moldova?
May 2017
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Moldova is troubled even by the standards of eastern Europe, but at the central bank Sergiu Cioclea, a former BNP Paribas corporate financier, is trying to bring order to his home country’s chaotic banking sector.
Middle East: Keeping Lebanon central bank's Salamé was the right call
May 2017
After months of uncertainty, the Lebanese government has finally approved Riad Salamé’s renewal at the head of the country’s central bank. It was right to reappoint him; now he should be left to work unfettered by political interests.
Africa: Afreximbank pushes at history’s wheel
May 2017
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Africa’s natural resource exporters, reliant on revenue from oil, gas, gold, cocoa or other commodities to prop up their budgets, have suffered the most.
May 2017
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The country’s last administration borrowed heavily from banks to sustain inefficient state-owned energy companies at the expense of the private sector – can the newly elected government repay the debt and get banks lending again?
Middle East: Can the crowd fund Gulf SMEs?
May 2017
Beehive and Eureeca are using online crowdfunding to raise debt and equity for small businesses in the Middle East. Becoming regulated will allow them to grow rapidly. In time, they could eat the banks’ lunch, or the banks just might swallow them.
Africa: Ken Ofori-Atta – the man to make Ghana fly
May 2017
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The country’s new minister of finance has ambitions to build factories, cut taxes and combat corruption. His background as an entrepreneur and banker may mean his plans can get off the ground.
Middle East: Saudi banks breathe as liquidity fears ease
May 2017
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The liquidity issues that have plagued the Kingdom’s banks for months appear to have abated. But a persistently low oil price and the impending generational reform programme mean that Saudi Arabia’s financial sector still faces some big challenges.
Banking: Consolidation starting in Argentina as Macro targets Patagonia
April 2017
Banco Macro seeks equity sale to finance Patagonia acquisition; outlook for banking consolidation heating up.
New Kuwait highlights the same old problems
April 2017
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The emir of Kuwait has revealed a grand plan to transform the country into a regional financial centre by 2035. The country’s bankers and businessmen say they’ve heard it all before. Can Kuwait finally deliver on its promises?
Kuwaiti silence speaks volumes
April 2017
The country needs constructive criticism to pull it out of its stasis. But who will speak up?
Kuwait leads and follows with bond debut
April 2017
Emirate last in GCC to issue bond debut; Kuwaiti issuers to follow the sovereign.
Philippine banks boom despite the politics
April 2017
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The Philippines has perhaps the only president in the world more confrontational than Donald Trump. Yet business is good for banks and their customers. The political volatility trade-off will need progress on infrastructure to be a success.
Philanthropy gears up with Asian altruism
April 2017
With increasing wealth and a desire to create sustainable social and environmental impacts, Asia is overtaking the US as the driver of innovation in philanthropy. It’s also creating a great opportunity for private banks and others.
Election cycle could yet prove taxing for Czech banks
April 2017
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Another election cycle, another chance for a bit of bank-bashing. This time the venue is the Czech Republic, where prime minister Bohuslav Sobotka is trying to drum up support for his Social Democrat Party (SDP) before parliamentary elections in October by promising to tax the country’s banks.
Banking: Consolidation starting in Argentina as Macro targets Patagonia
April 2017
Banco Macro seeks equity sale to finance Patagonia acquisition; outlook for banking consolidation heating up.
Poland: The case for EBA in the east
April 2017
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Its HQ has to leave London – why not go to Warsaw?
Political protests could impede Paraguay’s new fiscal responsibility law
April 2017
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New counter-structural rules were planned for next government; aversion to higher government debt could impact infrastructure.
LatAm banking: Supervielle flying in Argentina
April 2017
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Bank maintaining momentum from its IPO and international bond; acquisitions not planned given size of organic opportunity.
Country risk: Mexico’s EM attraction questioned
March 2017
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Mexico is considered the most attractive emerging market (EM) by Bloomberg, but is not the safest according to Euromoney’s country risk metrics.
Striking back: Indonesia offers an alternative to other large EMs
March 2017
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The borrower’s gradually improving risk profile could see it overtake Brazil and Turkey before too long.
Grupo Aval’s Sarmiento says Odebrecht fallout in Colombia is limited
March 2017
Subsidiary Corficolombiana minority shareholder in cancelled toll road PPP; Sarmiento says impairment charge already taken and losses manageable.
Asia: Malaysia’s IOSCO coup might kick-start Asean progress
March 2017
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Malaysia is proud to be IOSCO’s first non-Madrid hub, but the deeper significance will be if it spurs long-delayed regional market integration.
High-risk Egypt is poised for a comeback
March 2017
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Egypt’s fall from grace is one of the more noteworthy of recent years.
Latin America: UBS spies inflection point for EM banks’ valuations
March 2017
Cost of equity (COE) dips under return on equity (ROE) as outperformance forecast; long decline in ROE since 2007 seen to have ‘bottomed-out’.
Israel and Palestine – the practical partnership
March 2017
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Whisper it quietly, but a special relationship of sorts has grown between the monetary authorities of Israel and the Palestinian territories, between whom a needs-must spirit of cooperation, engagement and mutual respect exists. Euromoney lifts the lid on technocrats managing to do business amid the noise of politics.
Country risk: Erdogan is wrong – Turkey’s creditworthiness is waning March 10, 2017
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Euromoney’s survey experts continue to downgrade the borrower, disagreeing with the president’s claims there is no justification for it.
Africa finds its own path for fintech development
March 2017
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Fintechs in Africa are developing along different lines to their counterparts in Europe and the US, sourcing funding and support away from the banks.
South African FX settlement portends more to come
March 2017
A recent settlement between Citibank and the South African Competition Commission relating to FX manipulation could portend further lawsuits in several other jurisdictions, including the US and UK, but the prospects for potential claimants rely heavily on the outcome of the European Commission’s own investigation.
Middle East: Moelis clinches Saudi Aramco advisory role
March 2017
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Boutique firm is first to win mandate; more could join, as IPO will be ‘very complex’.
Argentina moves to promote private banking
March 2017
Local regulation will formalize wealth management industry; Argentine tax amnesty has provided another boost to AuM.
Latin America: Mexico’s banks brace for Trump stress test
March 2017
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The country’s bankers are confident they can overcome any fall-out from their northern neighbour’s new regime. But falling consumer confidence is adding to pressure on the nation’s economy.
Mexico’s resilient banks offer outperformance March 2017
Expected to ‘de-couple’ from weakening macro; alternative valuation highlights growth potential.
Central Asia: A tale of two bank bailouts
March 2017
Spectre of BTA comes back to haunt KKB; currency collapse adds to pressure on IBA.
Emerging Europe: Unlu & Co recasts Turkish private banking
March 2017
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Since 1996, Turkey’s leading local investment bank has not only held its own against international competitors but maintained a dizzying pace of expansion. Now chairman and founder, Mahmut Unlu, is looking to transform the country’s private banking market.
Latin America: Peña presses on as Paraguay outperforms
March 2017
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Five years of strong economic growth have seen Paraguay decouple from its larger, troubled neighbours. International investors have taken note. Finance minister Santiago Peña is not resting on his laurels – bond deals, PPP initiatives and pro-business policies are all in the pipeline.
Emerging Europe: Funding belies Turkey’s bank conundrum
February 2017
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Political and market turmoil in Turkey has once again turned the spotlight on its banks’ dependence on external financing. Are foreign investors really fickle or are sector fundamentals strong enough to withstand repeated turbulence?
Lebanon vs the money launderers
February 2017
Abdul Hafiz Mansour, the head of Lebanon’s Special Investigation Commission, has a reputation as a tough adversary of financial crime. In a rare interview, he tells Euromoney why his unit is so effective, and why so much money laundering still goes unpunished.
Emerging Europe: Local firms show how to ride the CEE roller coaster
February 2017
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They have out-lasted their local competitors and seen off the bulge bracket banks. Now a cohort of hardy regional investment banks across emerging Europe are preparing for a new wave of M&A and capital markets activity.
Latin America: Paraguay to focus on trade at IDB
February 2017
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Country will promote the development of intra-regional trade at IDB annual meetings; Trump 'could be good' for Paraguay’s Pacific Alliance aspirations.
Fiscal risks take the shine off Ghana’s prospects
February 2017
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The country has disappointed investors by revealing undisclosed liabilities, which is underlining how African borrowers must be treated with caution.
Africa: Letshego moves into Ghana
February 2017
Letshego has the ambition of becoming Africa’s leading inclusive finance group. In January, the group announced that it was continuing its continent-wide expansion with the acquisition of a small finance outlet in Ghana.
Africa: Mozambique must make the right noise for debt
February 2017
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The country’s finances are in such a parlous state that it must treat the IMF and bondholders with all due respect to get the result it needs.
Emerging Europe: The past is not the future for Addiko
February 2017
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When Austria’s Hypo Alpe Adria collapsed after the financial crisis, it left a network of small Balkan banks – private equity firm Advent International has taken up the challenge of turning them into a profitable franchise, rebranded, root-and-branch reformed and under new management. CEO Ulrich Kissing is open-eyed about the challenges Addiko Bank faces.
Malaysia chases the big money in Islamic finance
February 2017
Shariah savings scheme could be a game-changer; wealth push follows success in sukuk market.
Middle East: The new foreign minister of Investcorp
January 2017
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At the largest private-sector investment firm in the Persian Gulf, the line between business and politics has always been blurred – its well-connected new executive chairman Mohammed bin Mahfoodh Al Ardhi seems a perfect fit for that curious tradition.
Country risk: Croatia is heading for investment grade
February 2017
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Leaping into tier three, the country is on course to regain the rating it lost four years ago.
Czech koruna prepares for lift-off as speculators dive in
January 2017
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The Czech currency came under sustained upward pressure in the middle of January, as investors piled in on bets that faster inflation would spur the central bank to abandon a cap that has kept a lid on the koruna for the past three years.
Emerging Europe: KBC bulks up in Bulgaria
January 2017
Belgian group wins bidding for NBG subsidiary; further consolidation seen likely in crowded market.
Emerging Europe: Western banks return to Russian IPOs
January 2017
International investors regain appetite for Russian stocks; Sovcomflot privatization on the table again.
Middle East: Iran’s banks struggle with expectations
January 2017
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Banks in Iran have made progress since the signing of the nuclear deal, yet many obstacles to doing business internationally remain; for every step forward, there seems to be one back.
Turkey’s not-so-independent central bank under pressure to hike rates
January 2017
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A challenging inflation outlook, sluggish economic activity and the steep slide in the value of the lira look set to force the Turkish central bank to oppose the wishes of its president and hike interest rates.
Asia: Banning JPMorgan won’t help Indonesia
January 2017
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Cutting off a bank for an anodyne macro equities call is an over-reaction and a backward step.
Argentina's Prat-Gay becomes Macri’s fall guy
January 2017
President’s decision reveals concern regarding 2017’s mid-term elections; no change expected to finance minister's economic policy as recovery predicted this year.
Investors give high-risk Mongolia a wide berth
January 2017
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The borrower is on its knees, crippled by a huge debt burden and in need of an external lifeline. Only an IMF deal can improve its fortunes.
Middle East: Amer throws the ball into Egyptian banks’ court
January 2017
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The Egyptian central bank’s decision to allow the pound to float freely in November caught many bankers in Cairo by surprise. But it was a long-held ambition of governor Tarek Amer, a veteran of Egyptian finance with a reputation as a straight-shooter. Now he needs to show the move heralds a cultural, positive shift for Egypt’s economy.
Myanmar could be a high-risk gamble worth taking
December 2016
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Its risk score is still improving, but it should not be ignored the borrower is still an acute-risk, tier-five option, a year on from the elections.
Lebanon: Banks perk up as Hariri picks cabinet
December 2016
End to multi-year political impasse; factions jostle for ministerial roles.
EU finance post-Brexit: London, Paris, Frankfurt … Vilnius?
December 2016
Perhaps size is an advantage for an innovation centre – small size, that is. It means you are nimble. So says Lithuania.
Iran: Nothing cements treaties like money
December 2016
Commerce could reverse Trump’s vow to dismantle the Iran nuclear deal.
Country risk expert insight: Georgia is the most resilient player across Black Sea territories
December 2016
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Georgia’s overall ECR score has been rising steadily throughout 2016. It improved by more than one point in the third quarter of the year, scoring 44.97, up from 43.88 in the previous quarter.
Egypt’s central bank floats pound
December 2016
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IMF responds with $12 billion loan approval; banks’ long-term prospects improve.
Africa: Mozambique looks to IMF as debt woes resume
December 2016
Country deems debt unsustainable; IMF support may be imminent.
Emerging Europe: Statist streak ‘domesticates’ Polish banks
December 2016
Deutsche joins list of sellers; public-sector buyers in driving seat.
Argentina’s banks seek growth and acquisitions
December 2016
Banco Patagonia sale piques interest of main players; consolidation of smaller banks coming in next two years.
Malaysia riskier than its credit rating suggests
December 2016
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The fall in the currency could have repercussions for investor safety, extending the downward trend in its country risk score.
BCP points to strong 2017 for Peru’s banks
December 2016
New president has boosted confidence, investment and growth; sol-denominated lending lifts profits.
Against the tide: Trumping globalization
December 2016
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The rise of populism in general, and Trumpism in particular, brings severe geopolitical and economic risks and could have a disastrous impact on growth and productivity.
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Argentina: Galicia’s Grinenco looks through the regulatory lens
December 2016
The outside world is still happy to see the market-based reforms in Argentina through rose-tinted glasses, but the country’s banks are battling a poor economy and tough regulatory challenges. Banco Galicia’s chairman, Sergio Grinenco, has a pragmatic view of the outlook for Argentina’s banks.
Dave Seleski: Cuba’s unlikely banking pioneer
December 2016
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When the history of banking in communist Cuba is written, Dave Seleski, head of Florida-based Stonegate Bank, may well be hailed as a leader who triumphed against the odds.
Iran’s bankers wait for Trump’s next move
December 2016
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Immediately after Donald Trump’s election victory, Euromoney visited Tehran to gauge the reaction of one group likely to be affected more than most – Iran’s banking community. Throughout his campaign Trump threatened to tear up the nuclear agreement that has allowed Iran to take its first tentative steps towards international rehabilitation. But bankers in Tehran are determined to hold on to their hard-won gains.
Emerging Europe: Lithuania goes all in on fintech
December 2016
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Of all the cities lining up to poach London’s business post-Brexit, Vilnius might seem the most unlikely. Yet the Lithuanian capital has much to offer financial firms, from liveability and local talent to cutting-edge fintech regulation. Euromoney visits a small city with big ambitions.
Argentina: Blejer credits Macri administration for Hipotecario’s global local currency bond
November 2016
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Former adviser to Macri’s opponent in the presidential election endorses macro-economic progress; level of corruption in previous administration a ‘shocking surprise’.
Latin America: Mexico to bear the brunt of Trump
November 2016
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Regional FX volatility and capital outflows likely to hit LatAm; biggest risk comes from protectionism policies in the medium term.
Citi’s $1 billion push ‘won’t alter’ Mexican dynamics
November 2016
Internal analytics, not retail price war, behind the move; strong growth expectations prompt high bank valuations.
Middle East: Saudi raises doubts as well as debt
November 2016
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Investors should not get too carried away by Saudi’s bond market triumph: there is still much that can derail its long-term strategy.
Njoroge battles Kenya’s conflict of interest
November 2016
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In his first 16 months as governor of Kenya’s central bank, Patrick Njoroge has had to work through constant concerns about the health of the country’s economy and financial sector. Now he faces his biggest challenge yet: a piece of financial regulation he believes will deeply hurt Kenyan banks and their consumers.
Macaskill on Markets: The lucrative new Saudi ‘MBS’ market
November 2016
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A recent $17.5 billion bond issue by Saudi Arabia was hailed as a resounding success by capital market participants who have a strong interest in further fundraising by the kingdom, including an expected IPO of Saudi Aramco that could break records with a size around $100 billion.
Private equity funds line up for central Europe bonanza
November 2016
Sale of Poland’s Allegro sets regional record; local currency liquidity adds comfort for global buyers.
Turkish borrowers shake off sovereign downgrade
November 2016
Eurobonds back after three-month post-coup shutdown; October supply tops $3.5 billion.
Morocco’s Attijariwafa enters Egypt
November 2016
Resumes African expansion as Barclays retreats; hints of more jobs to match Egypt’s economic growth.
Russia investment banking: VTB Capital faces down the doubters
November 2016
Russia’s leading investment bank has seen its fortunes fluctuate over the past two years. Alexei Yakovitsky, VTB Capital’s chief executive, talks to Euromoney about Brexit, Africa and state ownership and explains why sanctions have proved more of a blessing than a curse.
Saudi Arabia aims to capitalize on bond blowout
November 2016
Kingdom’s debut is largest ever EM deal; Vision 2030 chimes with investors.
Latin America: Investment bankers optimistic for upturn
November 2, 2016
Revenues still depressed by poor ECM; DCM and M&A resilient but at low levels.
Saudi’s new finance minister brings unique style
November 2016
The younger and energetic Mohammed Al-Jadaan has a record of transformation.
Correspondent banking: Transfer window closing
November 2016
For countless countries in the emerging markets, remittances are a boon to the economy. In some cases, they are a lifeline.
Asia: Mulyani rides to Indonesia’s rescue (again)
October 2016
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Recalled from Washington by a reform-minded president struggling to fulfil his election promises, Sri Mulyani Indrawati is pushing through a wholesale reform of Indonesia’s tax system. But it is not just about boosting revenues; for Mulyani it also symbolizes the beginning of a new era for the country.
Latin America: Mexico leads way in green-bond push
October 2016
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Some landmark deals from international banks are pioneering the green-bond structure in Latin America. But until the region begins to sell in local currency to local investors, the potential will remain unfulfilled.
Asia: Myanmar's banks at a cash and credit crossroad
October 2016
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The investment case for Myanmar is well known: the resources, the population and the convenient neighbours. What about the reality of banking on the ground? Banks may be growing fast, but they face challenges ranging from an absence of mortgages to changing rules and a national obsession with cash.
Libya: LIA loses the Goldman case
October 2016
Libyan Investment Authority fails to convince court US bank duped it; Société Générale case even bigger but LIA is rudderless.
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Azerbaijan’s risk score slide underlines the region’s red-flag warning
October 2016
Although the CIS is learning to adjust to low oil prices, the recovery is slow, the political risks complex, and with fiscal deficits widening living standards are failing to keep pace with other emerging markets.
Slovenia’s sunny outlook a bright spot amid gloomy neighbours
October 2016
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Citi rebrands in Mexico as HSBC signals it will stay October 2016 Citi seeks to commit to Mexico after Latin America withdrawal; HSBC injects capital but commitment questioned.
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Euromoney Finance Minister of the Year 2016
October 2016
Argentina’s Prat-Gay named Euromoney Finance Minister of the Year 2016.
Prat-Gay lays the ground for a new Argentina
October 2016
Argentina’s ground-breaking return to the bond markets captured the headlines, but finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay’s credibility and rapid reactions have played a vital role in its restored standing.
Latin America: Argentina's Prat-Gay faces his biggest hurdle
October 2016
After Mauricio Macri took power in Argentina at the end of last year, finance minister Alfonso Prat-Gay scored a number of quick and important wins. He settled with the holdout bond investors, removed FX restrictions and started to tackle inflation. But now he faces his toughest challenge – tackling the fiscal deficit.
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Euromoney Central Bank Governor of the Year 2016
October 2016
Pakistan’s Wathra named Euromoney Central Bank Governor of the Year 2016.
Wathra’s way wins plaudits for Pakistan
October 2016
Pakistan’s central bank governor Ashraf Wathra has played a crucial role in boosting the country’s financial credibility among the international community. Locals now hope to reap the benefits in both banking and capital markets.
Ashraf Wathra ushers in a new era for Pakistan
October 2016
Ashraf Wathra is a different choice as head of the State Bank of Pakistan. An outsider brought in to the inner sanctum of monetary policy, he is keen to promote market-based reforms, boost the banking sector and break the reliance on the IMF. Can he profit from the new positivity about Pakistan and cope with his critics?
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Africa: Bank de-risking hits money transfer firms
October 2016
African money movers lose correspondents; remitters turn to informal channels.
Paraguay’s banks contend with slowdown
October 2016
Moody’s downgrades banking system outlook to negative; Concerns over lower demand for credit and higher NPLs.
Banking: Two’s company in Georgia
October 2016
Banking sector concentration, rather than proliferation, is the lesser of two evils.
Middle East: Iran’s markets come in from the cold
October 2016
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The country’s financial system is still not easy to access; money has trickled rather than flooded into its stock exchange since January’s deal with the US to lift sanctions. Nevertheless, as the country emerges from years of isolation, important changes are taking place that could herald a new era for Iran’s capital markets.
Country risk: Morocco’s investment grade in doubt
September 2016
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The sovereign borrower still struggles to convince the experts as the elections draw near.
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Emerging Europe: Citi stands firm in CEE as rivals pull back September 2016
Collapsing investment banking volumes have prompted global players to pull back from emerging Europe over the past two years. But Citi’s Jim Cowles, CEO for EMEA, has alternative sources of revenue to fall back on.
CEE sovereigns: Slovenia regains top-tier borrower status
September 2016
Banks’ sovereign coverage models in the spotlight; consistency is key, say market leaders.
Saudi Arabia: IPOs open to foreigners in new shake-up
September 2016
Foreign funds expected to rush in; move coincides with privatisation drive.
Africa: Rabobank cuts reg risk in new venture
September 2016
Regional stakes join FMO and Norfund assets; indirect, lower ownership reduces liability.
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Argentina’s banks seek path to normalization
September 2016
Argentina’s banks are facing a difficult transition period as the government and the central bank (BCRA) attempt to lower inflation and the country’s base rates, as well as facing subdued credit demand thanks to the economic recession.
Central bank becomes Yemen’s latest battleground
September 2016
The Central Bank of Yemen has avoided taking sides in the civil war – until September, when the president replaced the governor and moved the bank, infuriating political opponents and setting off alarm bells for some observers.
ECR correctly predicts S&P’s Hungary upgrade – Bulgaria is surely next
September 2016
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The decision to reassign Hungary’s investment grade will bring delight to Budapest, bringing the sovereign borrower correctly in line with Romania, but S&P needs to take note – Euromoney’s country risk survey is shining the spotlight on another country that is closely aligned.
Electronic trading shows scope for FX growth in Middle East
September 2016
Despite a substantial fall in trading volumes in Bahrain during the past three years and the ability of Saudi Arabia to defend its currency peg, increased electronic trading volumes suggest the Middle East FX market has scope for further development.
Banks at the heart of Cuba's existential battle for reform
September 2016
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Cuba’s return to the international community will be long, complex and fraught with contradictions – not least in financial services. Reform remains a dirty word in a system where banking services for the masses are non-existent. The authorities talk a good game about attracting foreign investment – but how will they attract capital when the central bank won’t even discuss what reserves it holds?
How Argentina beat the bondholder stand-off
September 2016
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As judge Thomas Griesa wrote in his ruling: ‘Put simply, President Macri’s election changed everything.’
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CIMB's Nazir battles Malaysia’s demons
September 2016
Nazir Razak has a complicated bio: one of Malaysia’s most talented bankers, architect of CIMB’s expansion into Asean, and brother of besieged prime minister Najib Razak. Despite a clean image, he was dragged into the 1MDB scandal in March, suspended himself from the bank, and was cleared. Now back at work, he discusses the challenges facing his bank, his country and the region.
Asia: Mongolia fights fiscal fall-out
September 2016
Mongolia is living through interesting times. August alone featured, in this order: the revelation of a vast and unexpected deficit, the collapse of the currency, a 4.5 percentage point hike in interest rates in a single hit, a sovereign downgrade, and the subsequent downgrade of almost the entire national banking sector.
Financial inclusion: Fintech & fraud – microfinance faces balancing act in Africa
September 2016
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When microfinance banks in Africa speak of the rise of new technology, they usually focus on its potential and, perhaps disingenuously, play down the risks. They say the spread of mobile phones and internet access enables small loans to reach Africa’s rural poor more efficiently than ever before. But while international microfinancier Finca is aware of these opportunities, it knows from painful experience in Uganda that new technology opens up new vulnerabilities too.
Taiwan’s banks struggle on multiple fronts
September 2016
Sluggish economy, declining profits, slower loan growth; political rift with Beijing dulls Asia expansion hopes.
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Latin America: Valenzuela rides into a new world of challenges
September 2016
When Banorte’s former CEO left Mexico’s top-tier domestic bank, few expected to see him return on a motorbike chasing gym owners for overdue loan payments. But in taking over challenger Banco Azteca, Alejandro Valenzuela has accepted a completely new professional and personal task – running a bank for the previously unbanked.
Middle East: Gulf moves from buyouts to mergers
September 2016
NBAD’s merger with FGB gives Abu Dhabi a bank with a similar market cap to firms such as DBS and Standard Chartered. At the same time, the emirate is merging two of the Gulf’s most powerful state investment companies, Ipic and Mubadala. Amid low oil prices, Gulf states are finding new strategies for national champions.
Middle East: Constantly tested, Lebanese banks remain resilient
September 2016
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Shaken by war on its border, a political crisis that has left it without an elected president for two years, and a collapse in the price of oil, Lebanon’s economy is facing challenges unseen since the country’s own civil war.
Emerging Europe: Latvia looks beyond its big bank clean-up
September 2016
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Its banking sector has earned an unenviable reputation thanks to the growth of financial institutions serving non-residents – principally from Russia. Regulators are now, finally, cleaning house. But the challenge for local banks remains: how to make money in a small, over-banked domestic market.
Emerging Europe: EBRD keeps its appetite for risk
September 2016
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From Moldova to Mongolia, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has earned a reputation for going where other institutions fear to tread. Now it is putting its balance sheet to work plugging holes in banks’ capital bases.
Africa: Mozambique runs on empty
September 2016
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When Mozambique struck gas in 2010, it was supposed to herald a bright, lucrative future for the poor African state. It hasn’t turned out that way. Rising debt, sluggish growth and a corrosive financial crisis have culminated in the IMF freezing payments to the struggling state. Its banking industry is one of the few brighter spots.
Bulge bracket gets slimmer in Asian investment banking revenues
September 2016
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Moody’s should stop kicking its heels – a Polish downgrade is overdue
September 2016
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Poland’s declining risk score trend in Euromoney’s survey signals the rating agency is lagging experts in the field.
IMF deal holds the key to Sri Lanka’s improving prospects
September 2016
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The borrower will not challenge Indian safety for the foreseeable future, but faith in the emerging market (EM) is justified by its improving risk score.
Asia: GIC’s Vietcombank stake shows long-awaited EM shift
August 2016
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Singapore’s GIC has promised to expand in emerging markets (EMs) for years. The Vietcombank stake is a good way of doing it.
Zambia’s crumbling commodity-led economy ‘must diversify’
August 2016
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The southern African country’s reliance on copper and recent disorderly elections have seen increased instability in the region, potentially adding to the deterioration in its ECR scores.
Latin America: Supreme Court deals blow to Argentina’s recovery plan
August 2016
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Prat-Gay warns on negative impact to FDI flows; cutting energy subsidies ‘the biggest bomb’ from past administration.
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Asia: Driven Kapoor breaks the mould August 2016
Yes Bank, started just 12 years ago, is one of India’s fastest growing lenders – and the most interesting by far. Its founder and CEO sits down with Euromoney to discuss risk management, cost cutting, divine intervention and why he doesn’t do the ‘wow’ factor.
Malaysia stays ahead with sukuk
August 2016
Dominance of global volumes continues; why aren’t others catching up?
Digital can be Shariah-compliant
August 2016
Digital initiatives boost Hong Leong Islamic Bank; Islamic finance fertile ground for fintech.
Asia: Sitohang’s mission to save Credit Suisse
August 2016
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With growth hard to come by elsewhere in Credit Suisse’s global network, CEO Tidjane Thiam has turned to Asia. He has given Asia Pacific chief Helman Sitohang not only tough targets, but also a degree of autonomy. Can he deliver?
Emerging Europe: Making the most of Moneta
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August 2016
Tomas Spurny has headed some of the biggest banks in emerging Europe. Now he has the task of transforming Czech consumer lender Moneta Money Bank into a digital leader. He talks about technology, regional risk and the joys of returning to Prague.
Brazilian banks’ share rally to falter?
August 2016
Best global performers so far this year; Rally technical; fundamentals remain poor.
Binbasgil pilots Akbank through Turkey’s turbulence
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August 2016
Hakan Binbasgil has built Akbank into one of the most impressive financial institutions in the emerging markets. Can he keep the bank on track?
Mexico’s banks enjoy strong growth conditions
August 2016
Credit growth and positive margins offset Trump risks; HSBC Mexico still failing to flourish amid sale rumours.
Mexico’s investor risk spikes as the US elections approach
August 2016
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Uncertainty is increasing for peso assets as the fight for the White House heats up. Even a victory for Hillary Clinton comes with reservations attached, demonstrating how it is not just the possibility of Donald Trump winning that is ringing alarm bells.
Latin America: Lacerda plays a grown-up game
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August 2016
The downturn in Brazil does not faze Ricardo Lacerda, founding partner of local investment bank BR Partners. Advisory remains the bedrock of his business, but political instability makes him think the next five years could undermine the last 20.
Galicia opens Argentina’s new FIG market
August 2016
Regulatory-driven tier-2 deal trades up; Brazil banks still prefer local funding.
Skye fall underlines worries over Nigerian banks
August 2016
Central bank’s first post-2008 intervention; Claims Nigeria’s banks remain healthy.
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Middle East: Accad wakes up ABK
August 2016
Two years into what he says will be the last job of his career, ABK’s chief executive Michel Accad has already taken the bank from a domestic to a regional player and begun much-needed modernization.
Tension rises between Lebanon's banks and Hezbollah
July 2016
A US law to curb Hezbollah’s access to finance has caused weeks of turmoil in Lebanon, where the rules were quickly implemented, and even exceeded, by a financial sector eager to avoid US sanctions. The explosion of a bomb outside the Beirut headquarters of the country’s second-biggest bank, Blom Bank, this summer has been even interpreted as a warning signal to bankers to not apply US regulations too zealously.
Ed Royce: ‘Lebanese banks are doing the right thing’
July 2016
The Hezbollah International Financing Prevention Act (HIFPA), a US law aimed at blocking Hezbollah’s access to the financial sector, has caused weeks of commotion in Lebanon, where the central bank’s decision to implement the rules has led to tension between the country’s banks and the Lebanese Shi’ite group. For the first time since the law’s implementation in Lebanon, the instigator of HIFPA, US congressman Ed Royce, reacts to the situation in the country.
Europe’s bank stability is in question, say country risk experts
July 2016
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Country-by-country assessments of Europe’s banking sector show that risks are at new highs, as the financial services industry struggles to cope with the aftershocks of the 2007/08 crisis. Resolving the Italian bank crisis is key to how it will all pan out.
The DoJ 1MDB complaint analysed: how the named banks fare
July 2016
Who comes out best and worst from the DoJ report into 1MDB?
July 2016
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The UK’s decision to withdraw from the EU has opened a Pandora’s box for global investors at a time when commodity prices are depressed, sovereign bond yields are sinking to new lows and prospects are still dimming for many emerging markets (EMs).
Colombia remains risky despite landmark peace deal
June 2016
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The signing of a ceasefire agreement ending five decades of civil war is nothing short of monumental, but laying down the weapons will not fully resolve the issues and will most likely lead to fiscal repercussions with the economy already under pressure.
What does emerging Europe get out of banking union? June 2016
In the great debate on banking union, the smaller markets of emerging Europe are often overlooked. Yet, with banking sectors dominated by eurozone groups, they are uniquely vulnerable to changing regulatory regimes.
June 2016
The old pan-regional banking model is under threat but that presents opportunities for new champions to emerge.
June 2016
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Naci Agbal spent most of his career as a technocrat at the Turkish ministry of finance. Euromoney spoke to Agbal about his new role as finance minister when the world around him seems to be falling apart.
Croatia remains a risky prospect as Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania improve
June 2016
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Four months after a new coalition was formed, the economy is brightening, but Croatia remains mired in a political crisis weighing on its country risk rating.
Banks caught up in Nigeria anti-corruption push
June 2016
Access Bank questioned over safe deposit box; law enforcement agency targets two other banks.
Slovenia to privatize NLB in public listing
June 2016
‘Cumbersome’ lender may struggle for demand; Apollo targets 25% market share for NKBM.
Saudi banks see a future in Vision 2030
June 2016
As depressed oil prices continue to hit Saudi Arabia’s banks hard, the Kingdom’s plan for radical economic change is being seized upon as cause for optimism.
Saudi accelerates capital markets reform
June 2016
Stock market opens up further; influx of foreign money still capped.
Peru: Segura eyes further regional integration
June 2016
Mila just the start, says Peru’s finance minster; pan-Andean market liquidity coming.
Transaction services: MNCs hit by EM liquidity squeeze
June 2016
Tighter funding in the emerging markets is beginning to affect even the largest multinationals. Banks are being forced to think on their feet to develop workable products to meet the new demands. Is distributor finance the answer?
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Country risk: Kenya, Gabon, Ghana among the borrowers contemplating sub-Saharan shock
May 2016
Euromoney’s country risk survey shows the safety of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) issuers is once again in question, as economies flounder, debts spiral and capital access tightens.
May 2016
Turkey has made progress in reducing its debts, while expectations for rate rises in the US have abated in recent months. But political upheaval in the country has led investors to run for cover, and a new and relatively unknown central bank governor faces a dilemma on interest rate policy.
Country risk: It’s high time S&P took the plunge on Indonesia
May 2016
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It seems an appropriate time for the Asian borrower to regain its full complement of investment-grade ratings as it becomes safer in Euromoney’s country risk survey.
Latin America: Peru prospers by playing the long game May 2016
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Peru’s strong fundamentals protected the country from the harsh economic conditions in the region. But as solid commodity-led growth returns, will the chance to diversify into a broader economic model be lost?
Country risk: Peru’s risks ease on copper surge and election prospects May 2016
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The borrower is beginning to shine with the presidential race guaranteeing a pro-market candidate winning and the economy improving due to increased copper-mining capacity.
VietJet IPO set to soar May 2016
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Vietnamese carrier has outsized ambitions; seeking $300 million in HK or Singapore IPO.
Argentina makes a speedy return May 2016
Strong demand for new issue; perfect timing as bonds soar.
FX: Pakistan’s climb to the emerging-markets club May 2016
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Pakistan’s economic reform programme is starting to bear fruit, but a huge appreciation in the real exchange rate during the past two years is hurting the country’s export market, warns the IMF, amid expectations the country will soon join the MSCI emerging markets (EMs) index.
Ukraine: The perils of PrivatBank May 2016
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Assailed by conflict and politics, Alexander Dubilet admits that the task of running Ukraine’s biggest bank is complicated. But he insists that PrivatBank can cope with the loss of large parts of its network and dismisses rumours about secret loans and the need for state support.
UAE credit fears return as defaults rise May 2016
Oil rout weakens corporate debt sustainability; Rakbank and UAB suffer in SME downturn. Country risk: In search of the next investment grade April 2016
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Emerging markets: Fintech for the unbanked
April 2016
If digital payment providers share the cost of building new networks, they might profit handsomely from high volumes of low-value payments between two billion people unserved today by the world’s conventional banks, and become a new testing ground for fintech.
Country risk: Oil crisis sharpens Nigeria’s investor risks
April 2016
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A plunging country risk score illustrates how the problems are still mounting for Africa’s largest economy.
Bangladesh debate: Bangladesh gears up for growth
April 2016
The country faces many challenges as it prepares to make itself the global growth leader of tomorrow, not least in infrastructure, capital-market development and up-skilling its workforce. Part of the solution is to make itself more attractive to foreign investors.
April 2016
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Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year. Risk scores have now reached levels that do not preclude another global shock if China hits the skids.
Latin America: Reit turn ahead?
April 2016
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Latin America’s real-estate investment trust market has stalled in the face of a general pullback in emerging market investing. In the longer term, however, this could be the shock that spurs on a sector held back by asset size and asset scarcity.
Citi plots next stage of development in Asia
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April 2016
Citi’s Asia-Pacific business is the ultimate test of its universal banking model. New regional CEO Francisco Aristeguieta knows he needs to build on its strong component parts, not just to maintain its position in Asia, but to push the bank forward globally.
Sovereign debt: Uruguay juggles cheap yields and regional flux
April 2016
Plans to pre-fund 2017 in second quarter; Brazil and Argentina imperil growth and investment.
Latin America banking: Packed for good?
April 2016
International banks are picking up the suitcase banking habit in Latin America again. They may find it hard to return.
Sri Lanka debate: Sri Lanka looks to a brighter future
April 2016
With a can-do attitude, the island nation is working hard to move up the league tables by improving domestic conditions for business and inward investment and prompting its international ambitions by signing free-trade agreements with its neighbours.
Bangladesh debate: Bangladesh gears up for growth
April 2016 The country faces many challenges as it prepares to make itself the global growth leader of tomorrow, not least in infrastructure, capital-market development and up-skilling its workforce. Part of the solution is to make itself more attractive to foreign investors.
Middle East: Saudi banks dig deep for debt as liquidity runs dry
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April 2016 A liquidity crunch is affecting banks worldwide and Saudi Arabia is no exception. Deposits are falling as the government pulls out cash to fund the deficit, yet lending continues to grow. Will the banks change their lending models or turn to the capital markets for funding?
Middle East: Scale of Gulf-wide credit crunch comes clear
April 2016
$94 billion coming due by end-2017; Bahrain pays up after downgrade.
Africa: Njoroge stresses need for Kenya banks to innovate
April 2016
After 20 years at the IMF, Patrick Njoroge gave up life in Washington for the rough and tumble of public life in Kenya. It was a culture shock for the new central bank governor. Now his robust approach is proving to be a shock to the Kenyan system.
Kenya central bank governor Njoroge: Calling it as he sees it
April 2016
Patrick Njoroge has spent much of his career outside Kenya, mostly in Washington at the IMF as a senior economist. Two decades in that role took him around the world, occasionally as its ambassador, more often in a team of firemen fixing damaged economies.
Regulation: Banking’s dark side reaches Australia April 2016 Asic launches investigations; ANZ, Macquarie and CBA probed.
Barclays Africa eyes growth despite group sale
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April 2016
CEO to press on with pan-African investment; PLC exit comes as African business turns round.
MNCs search for help in EM liquidity squeeze
March 2016
Funding constraints of the kind familiar to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are now starting to impact multinational corporations (MNCs) with emerging-market (EM) exposure, pushing them to look to their banks for new options to obtain financing.
Emerging Europe: Romania’s new champion steps into i-banking
April 2016
Bank snaps up local advisory firm; M&A activity ‘on upward trajectory’, says CEO.
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March 2016
There is no need for panic. Emerging market credit is outperforming US high yield and the investor base is stable.
Emerging Europe: Don’t bank on Turkey for a bond market revival
March 2016
Turkish borrowers have become increasingly active in the Eurobond markets in recent years. But with funding costs rising, investment falling and political risk ever-present, could the last large source of new bonds in emerging Europe be about to dry up?
Are Kazakh banks back to the brink?
March 2016
Seven years after the first default of Kazakhstan’s largest bank, its lenders are once again under pressure. Can the sector survive an economic slowdown and dramatic devaluation?
Saudi Arabia plans institutional fund revamp
March 2016
Advice sought on new fund; Shoura eyes GOSI shake-up.
Latin America: Investors seek solace in resilience of corp credit
March 2016
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LatAm fixed income markets have seen a collapse in primary issuance and yields have jumped in the secondary market. But investors and bankers are pointing to a new-found maturity that augers well.
LatAm debt markets have ‘high-yield feel’
March 2016
Subdued supply and demand hit deal flow; More European focus at start of 2016.
Latin America: Citi pulls out of more markets
March 2016
Citi has confirmed it is to exit retail banking in Brazil, Colombia and Argentina in a further round of retrenchment from the region – with these latest three joining six other regional businesses sold in the past two years.
Latin America: Ruling raises Argentina debt hopes
March 2016
New York judge lifts injunction; market return could bring $10 billion issuance.
Emerging Europe: Citadele Banka – back from the dead
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February 2016
The bailout of Parex Banka at the height of the financial crisis helped push Latvia into deep recession. Today, reborn as Citadele and with a global all-star cast of owners, the bank is well on the way to becoming a national asset.
Banks frustrated as Iran's swift return is held up
February 2016
Teething troubles for messaging system; ICBC at vanguard of interested foreign banks.
Emerging Europe: Romania’s rocky road to recovery
February 2016
The country’s banking sector has staged a remarkable comeback over the past two years and is well-positioned to support growth and investment. Whether or not that will materialize, however, depends on its politicians.
Kuwait’s banks brace for property crash
February 2016
Market set to slump, claims new report; financials make up 80% of bourse.
Oil slump raises Venezuela default risk
February 2016
Sovereign highly exposed to oil price drop; default still not fully priced into bonds.
Latin America: Will 2016 be the year of euro DCM?
February 2016
Volatility slams international DCM shut; choppy access but strong liquidity in 2016.
Middle East: From differentiation pains to diversification gains?
February 2016
Qatar Financial Centre always wanted to be different to the other Middle East hubs. But the model was confused. Now it aims to be the engine for the broader transformation of the country’s economy.
Middle East: Worried Saudis float an Aramco IPO
February 2016
Saudi Aramco is a behemoth: the world’s most valuable company and the lifeblood of the Saudi state and royal family. Bankers and investors have mixed emotions over plans to list it; this could be a huge opportunity, but is it feasible?
Estonia offers safer option than France or South Korea
January 2016
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The Baltic state leapfrogged both sovereigns in the global ratings last year, making its credit ratings outdated.
Sanction removal unveils Iran currency hopes
January 2016
Iran is emerging from the shadows to re-establish itself as a prime player in the Middle East. Moves are afoot to rid the country of its black-market exchange rate and develop a working currency forward market.
Lending growth coming, says Ukraine’s CB governor
February 2016
Banking sector clean-up to continue; UniCredit heads for the exit.
Poland should have heeded Hungary’s lesson
February 2016
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Even robots can be made to learn from experience nowadays. Given what happened to Hungary, Poland’s downgrade should be no surprise.
West Africa's BRVM aims for expansion
February 2016
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Bourse expects 20 listings in three years; Nigeria and Ghana links planned.
Country risk expert insight: Green shoots showing in Ukraine
February 2016
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Ukraine finished 2015 with a slightly improved score year-on-year, despite seeing turbulence on all fronts in the ECR scoring categories throughout the year. Its score dipped in the fourth quarter of 2015, but ECR experts see some reasons for hope amid the gloom.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2015: China, Brazil and South Africa lead EM credit rout January 2016
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Poland’s plummeting political risk score foreshadows downgrade
January 2016
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Poland’s sovereign bond spreads are in turmoil, after a shock downgrade by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) late last week. The move follows a sharp drop in its political risk score in the latest Euromoney Country Risk (ECR) survey.
Country risk: High time Fitch upped its game on the Philippines January 2016
Why is Fitch so reticent to upgrade the sovereign when country risk experts and other credit rating agencies say it is overdue?
Latin America: Ditching the left, right?
January 2016
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International investors will swiftly return to Latin America if they see clear evidence of economic progress.
January 2016
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The South African president’s recent erratic changes in the ministry of finance highlight his flailing leadership.
GCC liquidity: Islamic advantage
January 2016
Islamic banks in the GCC may have two advantages over their conventional counterparts at a time of weak liquidity: loyal retail money and the ability to tap two investor markets.
Scrapping over the scraps – a dog-eat-dog world in CEE IB
January 2016
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Investment-banking volumes in emerging Europe have fallen to their lowest levels for more than a decade. Some international banks are withdrawing capacity, while there is little sign of a pick up in the capital markets. So why are some of the universal banks still making positive noises?
US funds play catch-up in Africa
January 2016
American private equity sees sub-Saharan Africa as an opportunity in an era of slow growth, but have been slow to tap in to the region’s long-term potential.
Middle East: Network International shows up dearth of Gulf deals
January 2016
Secondary buyout trumps IPO; Gulf markets need more liquidity.
Asia: The Untouchables – Indonesia's Widjajas
January 2016
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Default? What default? Asia Pulp & Paper, Sinar Mas and the Widjaja family, once pariahs of the international financial markets, have bounced back with a vengeance. Are the memories of the banks financing them too short? Or are they backing a group that can deliver on both its repurposed business and environmental credentials?
LatAm capital markets: Rebound prospects look gloomy January 2016
Brazil or Argentina need to spark revival; Latin America investment banking’s worst year since 2009.
Middle East liquidity crunch starts to bite
December 2015
Commercial Bank of Dubai pays up; Gulf Investment Corporation cancels deal.
AIIB spells out conservative approach
December 2015
New Asia lender caps lending at $100 billion; dollars, not RMB, will fund projects.
Argentina: Macri defuses Cristina’s bomb
December 2015
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Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has left a toxic legacy for newly elected president Mauricio Macri. Asset prices were buoyed by his election victory the mid-term outlook for the Argentine economy is brimming with potential, but he must get through the next six months unscathed and consolidate a weak political base.
Country risk: Vietnam is bouncing back
December 2015
Of all the frontier markets competing for inward investment, the one-party state is still one of the more attractive prospects.
Middle East: Saudi Arabia takes cautious first steps to an open market
December 2015
Saudi Arabia is six months into its programme to attract international institutional investors to its stock market. The verdict so far: an impressive willingness to listen and communicate, but slow progress in terms of getting any money in.
Saudi credit rating still too high despite S&P downgrade
December 2015
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Depressed oil prices are sending shockwaves through the Kingdom as it looks at ways to mitigate the macro-fiscal implications.
Georgia Healthcare gets London IPO away
December 2015
Pricing slashed as emerging market IPOs struggle; political in-fighting ‘threatens Georgia’s reform record’.
Africa: Ethiopia takes a different path
December 2015
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The government insists that its banking sector will remain closed to external investment. But can the country’s economy thrive without better access to international credit?
Uruguay’s debt record set for tough challenge
December 2015 Record low yields for sovereign’s recent deals; slowing economy, deteriorating fundamentals.
LatAm DCM bankers wind down dismal 2015
December 2015
Meek year-end further weakens annual total; euro deal resurgence brings some cheer.
Latin America: Lessons from Colombia
December 2015
Road-building is a classic tool to boost a flagging economy. But as Luis Fernando Andrade, president of Colombia’s national infrastructure agency, tells it, it isn’t plain sailing.
EMFX ripe for electronic trading, vows start-up R5FX
November 2015
The new trading platform for emerging-market currencies is now live with the Indian rupee, Brazilian real, Chilean peso and Colombian peso.
Poland stronger than Hungary, despite political risks
November 2015
A new government emphasizing Hungarian-style nationalist, unorthodox policies with increased public spending has raised uncertainty over Poland’s risk profile. However, the sovereign borrower is in a strong position and is less indebted than Hungary.
Country risk: Hungary, India and Thailand among EMs resilient to shocks
November 2015
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As sovereigns from Brazil and China to Malaysia and Mexico bomb, the search is on for increased safety for emerging market (EM) investors.
Country risk expert insight: Argentina faces struggle to modernize economy
November 2015
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Euromoney Country Risk experts believe drastic change is in the pipeline for Argentina — but its newly elected government has a fight on its hands to push through economic reforms.
Country risk: Angolan investors ignore risks
November 2015
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Investors snapped up Angola’s $1.5 billion Eurobond debut this month, and yet the sovereign borrower’s country-risk score has plunged, putting it among the world’s worst default risks.
November 2015
Fears over emerging market corporate debt burdens took centre stage at the IMF/World Bank meeting.
Asia banking: Myanmar’s makeover
November 2015
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Bangladesh: Rahman touches the ground and it bears fruit
November 2015GDP forecast up by 6.5% in 2015; reserves increase fourfold.
Iran issues $300m equivalent domestic bond
November 2015Interest rate of 26% for 165-day notes; international return inked in for 2016.
Trans-Pacific Partnership to the rescue
November 2015Latin America’s economies are suffering a rapid and severe shift in their terms of trade. The development of free trade areas may provide a way forward and global initiatives, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership, could transform the region’s future.
Turkey’s banks sweat the small stuff
November 2015
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November 2015They may be well-capitalized, but their funding needs are rising, just as the buyer base falls away.
Gulf markets: the liquidity well runs dry
November 2015The drop in the oil price has combined with a general lack of liquidity to put issuers from Gulf states in an unfamiliar position. There may be no need to fear a crunch, but the region’s issuers must get used to the fact that they will have to pay up to raise capital.
Yield for Ghana bond hits double digits
November 2015Highest mark of any African Eurobond in 2015; debt sustainability questions linger.
Risk survey endorses Hungary’s investment-grade prospects
October 2015
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SteelyNabiullina fights Russia’s fires
October 2015
Elvira Nabiullina, Euromoney’s central bank governor of the year, is staunchly sticking to her controversial crisis-fighting plan as Russia reels from its biggest financial crisis since 1998. As sanctions and falling commodity prices threaten Putin’s oil-financed state patronage, the central bank – the last bastion of economic orthodoxy – is battling to craft a new growth model. Can Nabiullina turn crisis into opportunity? Finance Minister of the Year: Cardenas steadies the ship
October 2015
Colombia, more than any other Latin American country, has used the favourable winds of recent years to prepare for the rainy days ahead. But has finance minister Mauricio Cárdenas done enough to ensure Colombia stays afloat if there is a prolonged emerging market downturn?
Eurobond option still on the cards for Angola
October 2015
Armando Manuel, Angola’s finance minister, says that Angola will still issue a Eurobond despite recurring delays.
ECR survey results Q3 2015 dominated by China’s jitters, Brazilian crisis and EM capital shock
October 2015
China’s risk score fell 1.5 points, to below 60 out of 100, for the first time in almost two years in Q3 2015. With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.
Pakistan's central bank chief eyes balancing act
October 2015
Economic adjustment is well on track, but security and fiscal-consolidation challenges remain a drag on sustainable growth, warns State Bank of Pakistan governor Ashraf Mahmood Wathra.
Thailand's Apisak tells foreign banks they can’t compete
October 2015
Limited opportunity under military junta; domestic banks have retail dominance.
Malaysia central bank: Zeti’s last stand
October 2015
Before she leaves, Malaysia’s respected central bank governor could do her country a big favour by standing up to the prime minister.
Brazil central bank: We thought 'good times would last forever'
October 2015
Commodity exports overvalued the real; manufacturing went 'down the drain'.
Brazil: Downgrade sparks fears of sell-off spiral
October 2015
IRB Brasil Re delays IPO pricing; debt markets down 52% on year.
Debt capital markets: Colombian bond reflects LatAm’s new reality
October 2015
Big premium sets pricing reference; euro market remains attractive.
Central America: Panama moves against illicit finance
October 2015
Correspondent banking relationships strained; Venezuelan currency crisis adds to headwinds.
Latin America investment banking: Fees’ big freeze
October 2015
Investment banking fees in LatAm are on the way down and international banks face a tricky choice of whether to stick or twist.
Nabiullina rages against the banking machine
October 2015
In 2013, Russia’s central bank became a mega-regulator, overseeing a slew of credit institutions, from banks, insurance agencies, investment vehicles, micro-finance houses to pawnshops. That makes Elvira Nabiullina the most powerful central banker in modern Russian history.
Emerging Europe: Tinkoff defies Russian consumer squeeze
October 2015
Bad debts spark second wave of sector losses; CEO says low-cost, credit card model key to success.
Seychelles to snub Eurobond market
October 2015
Finance minister of heavily indebted nation sees no need to access international capital markets in the coming years.
New Ecobank CEO shelves Nigeria-stake sale plans
October 2015
Ade Ayeyemi says plans to sell a stake in Ecobank’s Nigerian business have been put on hold as current market conditions are not conducive to a successful sale.
October 2015
Overall clarity still lacking; US financial system firmly out of bounds.
Africa: Nigerian central bank offers relief to bank sector
October 2015
Cuts capital reserve requirement; currency still under pressure.
Tunisia optimism in spite of torrid time for tourism
October 2015
Reforms are expected to gather pace in 2016, boosting the country’s investment prospects.
Riskexperts losing faith in Malaysia
September 2015
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Further falls in the sovereign’s risk score signal the possibility of a credit rating downgrade.
Banking: Taiwan’s feet of clay
September 2015
The island’s biggest lenders are pushing hard into Asia, snapping up regional banks in a quest for growth and higher returns. Back at home, though, the island’s banking sector remains as moribund as ever, hobbled by too small a market and powerful unions.
China private banking debate: Managing a wealth of riches in China
September 2015
The nation’s private banking industry is blossoming, but even as it flourishes, leading players have to move fast to keep up with a changing market and an increasingly demanding and diverse client base. Euromoney gathered together a panel of private bankers, wealth managers and economists to discuss the market’s key issues in July.
Chinese investment banks: Calmer chameleons
September 2015
Asia’s growing band of big, local investment banks won’t let short-term market fluctuations affect their planned transitions from national to regional leadership
Sri Lanka: Showdown at the central bank
September 2015
Current and former governors trade blows; Mahendran and Cabraal at loggerheads.
Sovereign wealth fund: Mongolia’s Temasek fixation
September 2015
In establishing its sovereign wealth fund, Mongolia had a wide range of forebears to learn from. Singapore’s Temasek may not be the best choice.
Beware EM liquidity imbalances
September 2015
Tighter dollar liquidity will be bad news for emerging market banks and their lending boom of recent years is about to grind to a halt.
Emerging-market crisis is key test for banks
September 2015
Lenders were offered a valuable real-life stress test in late August, when investor concerns about the Chinese authorities’ bungled response to slowing growth in China following the devaluation of the yuan led to plunging Chinese and world equity prices, slumping commodity valuations and spikes in volatility across currency and securities markets.
Asia: Byambasaikhan offers Mongolia a fresh exchange of ideas
September 2015
Rich in resources, Mongolia has yet to find a way to mine them in such a way to enable the country to throw off its communist legacy. There are high hopes the new head of the state investment bank may be the man for the job.
Peru: Q&A – Bayly paints a brighter picture for BCP
September 2015
Strategic planning has helped Banco de Crédito del Peru outperform despite economic headwinds. The CEO explains how that and rigorous control of risk and costs – all the way down to how much paint is used in its branches – can keep returns on equity above 20%.
Argentina: To the winner, the spoilt economy
September 2015
This year’s presidential election in Argentina is likely to be the first to be decided in a second and final round of voting since the constitution was changed in the 1990s. The outcome for the country – and its economy – will be as important as it will likely be close. Euromoney talks to economic advisers to the two leading candidates about how they view 2016 and beyond.
Puerto Rico: Too late for alarm
September 2015
Puerto Rico should have seen the warning signs three years ago, when the long-term investors moved out and the hedge funds moved in.
Regional banks battle to fill Central America vacuum
September 2015
Colombian banks are moving into Central America as international banks depart. Regulation could drive further consolidation. The locals will need strength to survive – and thrive.
Central America: Money laundering – consolidation from the bottom?
September 2015
Roberto Zamora, president of Lafise, says that money-laundering regulation is the pertinent driver of consolidation throughout the region.
Infrastructure finance: Projecting Brazil’s future
September 2015
The Brazilian government is pinning its hopes on infrastructure finance to boost GDP growth and help woeful productivity rates. But the source of finance and the viability of some of the proposed projects mean that an infrastructure-led recovery won’t be coming to Brazil’s rescue any time soon.
Brazil banking: Bradesco buoyant, HSBC on back foot
September 2015
Brazil deal lifts Bradesco; UK bank fights to retain Mexico.
FinanceMinister of the Year 2015: Cárdenas clinches Colombian credibility
September 2015
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Mauricio Cárdenas’ fiscal credibility and investment plans have bolstered the country’s defences amid the emerging market rout, while boasting the best economic growth in the region.
Nicaragua canal to improve flow of economy
September 2015
No start date for project; canal would turbocharge GDP.
Brazil private banking debate: Private bankers cushion the blows in Brazil
September 2015
The country’s economy is going through tough times, putting a greater onus on private bankers to look after their clients’ investments. An emphasis on overseas diversification of portfolios is crucial. However, domestic investments still take up the greater share and require careful management
Latin America: Oil pours trouble on Venezuela’s economy
September 2015
Parallel FX rate rockets; default more and more likely.
Municipal bonds: Puerto Rico sparks long-term muni market fears
September 2015
Questions over Chicago; moral obligation bonds may carry more risk.
Brazil banking: Beyond the blame game
September 2015
It is time for Brazil’s central bank to encourage some competition and shake up the cosy world of its domestic institutions.
Latin America's fragmented treasury markets brought into focus
September 2015
Bankers and corporates are establishing systems to facilitate cross-border payments and FX processes as intra-regional trade grows.
Markets mull Brazil junk-rating impact
September 2015
Battle-ready long-term investors could pick up equity and debt on the cheap, according to research, as S&P finally cuts Brazil to junk after Euromoney Country Risk rankings.
Igor Kim: Russia's great consolidator
September 2015
A prolific bank buyer but notoriously publicity-shy, Igor Kim is little known outside his native Russia. In his first major interview with the international media, he talks about expanding into Europe, surviving a spell on Canada’s sanctions list and why global banking models are doomed to failure.
Croatia's Vujcic stares down the doom-mongers
September 2015
The country’s bloated public sector and rapidly rising government debt burden have alarmed analysts and prompted comparisons with Greece. As the nation emerges from six years of recession, however, central bank governor Boris Vujcic argues that there is much to celebrate.
Poland: Bank M&A threat from Swiss franc mortgage move
September 2015
$5.8 billion bill for loan conversion; portfolios ‘impossible to price’, say analysts.
Lira rout sharpens Turkish bank risks
September 2015
Banks and corporates have continued to ratchet up foreign-currency borrowing over the past two years. The big lira sell off this summer amid a local political crisis highlights how much higher funding costs could bring trouble for Turkish banks.
Turkish risk experts run for cover
September 2015
Far from stabilizing, the sovereign’s economic imbalances and political uncertainties are behind another round of downgrades.
Iran plots path from sanctions to action
September 2015
The country’s return to the fold of international finance is likely to be as long and winding as the road to the lifting of sanctions. But that hasn’t stopped forward-thinkers in Tehran’s financial elite plotting a vision for their banks and financial markets. Can it possibly live up to its billing in some quarters as ‘the most exciting investment in the world’?
Iran: On the road outside the capital
September 2015
Iran is big. Iranians are fond of telling visitors that it experiences four distinct climates at any one time, from snowbound mountains to deserts, and its 80 million people are spread across a multitude of diverse locations outside Tehran; indeed, the tourist industry, should it ever truly take off, will be pretty much everywhere but the traffic-throttled, daunting sprawl of the capital.
September 2015
Angola, which has recently emerged from civil war, is in the process of building its own identity. A systematic drive towards diversification of the economy away from the oil sector and the process of de-dollarization are pivotal parts of this process. How are banks, the government and locals coping as this transformation takes hold?
Angola's de-dollarization drive
September 2015
The country’s radical programme has put pressure on the banking sector, which in its short existence has relied heavily on the business brought in by foreign exchange. How can banks stay afloat with a lack of dollars in the system?
Africa: Is cross-border regulation the next big problem?
September 2015
As pan-African banks expand across the continent at lightening speed, experts have started to highlight the inadequacy of cross-border banking regulation. Regulatory progress is slow, while pan-African banks admit that the issue is not yet top of their priority list.
Palestine: Exchange chief calls for recognition
September 2015
CEO: ‘We’re ready for World Federation’; on FTSE Frontier index watchlist.
Angola: New exchange faces liquidity question
September 2015
Chief executive admits concerns; equity trading planned for 2016.
Angola goes after diversification
September 2015
The fall in the oil price and the de-dollarization of the economy has done even more to highlight Angola’s over-dependence on oil. As a result, the diversification of the economy is higher-up on the government’s agenda than ever before.
Angola’s de-dollarization dilemma
September 2015
The drive away from the dollar and towards meaningful use of the kwanza could make Angola’s poor even more vulnerable.
The debt case for Middle East investment
September 2015
Saudi Arabia and Iran have been presented chiefly as an opportunity on the equity side, but both markets are attracting interest from the fixed income community as well.
Middle East: Fund management moves to the forefront
September 2015
Recent developments in the stock markets of the Middle East have caught the attention of international investors. But they also have the potential to invigorate something that the region has long lacked – a powerful domestic asset management industry.
UAE/UK debate: Partnership and trust take on the trade challenge
September 2015
The UK and UAE sailed past their original bilateral trade target two years ahead of schedule and have now set the bar even higher – to hit £25 billion a year by 2020. Banks and advisory firms, along with government-sponsored bodies and trade fairs are encouraging small and medium sized enterprises to lead the way. Euromoney gathered representatives from several of these organizations to discuss the future of this burgeoning market
Risk experts losing faith in Malaysia
September 2015
Further falls in the sovereign’s risk score signal the possibility of a credit rating downgrade.
August 2015
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The contingent lifting of western sanctions on the world's biggest untapped market has been met with cautious optimism by the financial industry.
Mexico: Banorte prepares infrastructure fund
August 2015Combines pensions and investors; structural reforms in place for growth.
Latin America: Average deal fees slump
August 2015
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Country risk: Why betting on Ukraine is for the fortuitous or foolhardy
August 2015Only time will tell if snapping up Ukrainian bonds before its creditor negotiations are complete is fortuitous or foolhardy, but what cannot be denied are the enormous risks involved.
Mozambique warned on resource boom
August 2015Lessons to learn from rest of Africa; local banks may be left behind.
LatAm markets: Return of political risk
August 2015Latin America’s markets need a shot in the arm; instead they’re getting a shot in the face.
Argentina central bank creditworthiness questioned
August 2015Rapid growth in bond issuance; banks keen for returns.
LatAm markets: Return of political risk
August 2015Latin America’s markets need a shot in the arm; instead they’re getting a shot in the face.
Frontier investors prepare to enter Iran
August 2015Well-functioning stock market; structural surprises still likely.
Union Capital seeks a slice of the Nigeria investment banking pie
July 2015Union Capital executives reveal why now is the right time to set up shop in Africa's largest market, despite a competitive banking landscape and the current deal-flow drought.
No respite for embattled Zimbabwe stocks
July 2015
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No Eurobond plan for Nigeria Access Bank post Moody's rating
July 2015Access Bank has become the second bank in Nigeria to receive a rating from Moody’s, illustrating the bank’s strengths despite challenging macroeconomic conditions.
Nigerian pensions chief signals new era
July 2015The head of the Nigerian public pension fund commission reveals governance and diversification reforms, amid a bull market for savings in Africa's largest economy.
Ghana’s $1.5 billion Eurobond plan to test weary investor appetite
July 2015As Ghana prepares to return to the Eurobond market, bankers say the sovereign’s debt sustainability will be tested, amid weak real-money appetite for frontier economies.
Markets eye further Nigerian currency devaluation
July 2015While the central bank has ruled out further currency devaluation, markets continue to price in a weaker naira and the prospect of weak foreign capital inflows.
Country risk: Southeast Asia braces itself for US Fed rate hike
July 2015
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Euromoney Country Risk survey results H1 2015: In search of safe havens with Greece on the brink
July 2015The latest quarterly round-up from Euromoney’s crowd-sourcing country risk survey – a unique poll of more than 440 expert participants – shows no fewer than 80 of the world’s 186 sovereigns becoming riskier during the first half of 2015.
HSBC doubles down on EM IB gamble
July 2015
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Investment banking rivals may scoff, but HSBC’s Asia shift could prove a canny piece of business.
Abu Dhabi: Adia accelerates in-sourcing push
July 2015
Up to $120 billion moved in-house in three years; not relying on outside firms for alpha.
Investment banking: LatAm IB fees in a slump
July 2015
Faltering Brazil a big drag on bank income; Mexico offers cause for optimism.
Emerging Europe: NPL sales pick up in CEEJuly 2015
Global funds pile into Romania; Hungary, Slovenia next hot spots.
Nigeria’s investment banks feel the squeeze
July 2015
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Nigeria's troubles hold lessons for corporate IB
July 2015
Commodity price drop will drive NPLs; difficulties could help local capital markets.
Military grip on Myanmar is a reminder of the extreme risks
July 2015
The glowing appeal of this frontier market is overshadowed by an array of problems, notably stemming from the junta’s resistance to democratic reform.
Poor project design still blights Africa infra outlook
June 2015
To fill Africa’s substantial infrastructure gap, governments need to work with investors to produce viable and worthy projects. South Africa is illustrative.
Kurdistan bond debut not for the faint-hearted
June 2015
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The semi-autonomous Iraqi state is set to be the latest sovereign issuer despite its geopolitical quagmire – posing an allocation dilemma for yield-hungry institutional investors.
Sri Lanka risk-score undermined by political and economic challenges
June 2015
The sovereign is still struggling in Euromoney’s risk survey as economic and fiscal indicators deteriorate, corruption investigations dampen China-sourced foreign investment and a looming general election makes it uncertain whether the new president’s parliamentary backers can produce a majority.
Tunisia’s credit-rating actions seem unconvincing
June 2015
Fitch and Moody’s altered the outlooks on their BB-/Ba3 ratings from negative to stable in recent months, but experts taking part in Euromoney’s country risk survey are still to be persuaded.
Azerbaijan stands out in a region still succumbing to increased riskJune 2015The sovereign has become comparatively safer in Euromoney’s country risk survey as its CIS neighbours find it hard to escape the blow-back from Russia’s meltdown and currency devaluations prompted by the new oil metrics.
EM currencies: are options the way forward?June 2015Recent currency movements have highlighted the limitations of the forward as a hedging option for emerging market (EM) currencies.
Latin America’s fixed income markets bloomJune 2015Activity picks up across sub-asset classes; volumes set to rise despite volatility in H2.
Changing Saudi prepares to open upJune 2015The Saudi Arabian Capital Markets Authority, unveiled its final rules in May, heralding the opening of the country’s stock market to foreign institutional capital in mid June. How will the market change as foreigners come in, and who benefits? And how long will it take before foreign institutions are comfortable enough with the technical side of Saudi trading to move in?
Foreign banks head for Turkey’s exit doorJune 2015Are currency depreciation and an uncertain political environment pushing international banks away from Turkish assets? The expected sale of HSBC’s local unit could hold the answer.
Fund managers set their investment sights on Saudi stock marketsJune 2015It's not all about oil. There are plenty of other highly rated companies to invest in.
CEE foreign banks: In the firing lineJune 2015Politicians have long been whipping up nationalist sentiment in Russia and Turkey. But now Poland is joining in on the act, banks and investors in CEE have reason for concern.
Sri Lanka: Finance minister embarks on ‘repair job’
June 2015Karunanayake targets ‘ostentatious expenditures’; contracts were ‘marked up ninefold’.
Latin America: Investors circle Argentina
June 2015Investor interest highest for a decade; questions remain over deal flow.
Nigeria: falling oil price, crumbling legitimacy?
June 2015Depressed oil prices mean that government revenue in Nigeria is sliding but raising revenue without alienating Nigeria’s most vulnerable will be a difficult feat.
MENA economic growth: A good start for Egypt
June 2015It is not without its challenges, but the economy is improving – steadily if unspectacularly.
Albania’s risk rating bolstered by reforms
May 2015The sovereign is one to watch in 2015, and not just because of the eurozone recovery, or conversely its vulnerability to Greece.
May 2015
A rising dollar, a falling euro, a vulnerable Chinese currency and critical elections are just some of the reasons why experts predict heightened emerging-market (EM) currency volatility in 2015.
Latin America banking: Risk pendulum swings back to locals
May 2015
New rules to boost risk-weighted assets at G-Sibs are ramping up the pressure on those banks to change their business model, and become less global. Latin American markets, until recently a battleground for global banks, could now see several of them retreat. Are local banks about to benefit from a less competitive environment?
Emerging Europe: CIS counts the cost of Russia
May 2015
The rouble’s crash sent currencies tumbling across the Caucasus and Central Asia. Banks look relatively well placed to withstand an inevitable downturn. But with protracted stagnation looming, is it time for policymakers to build bridges further afield?
Africa: Power shines bright despite Abil collapse
May 2015
Investors and issuers think alternative energy might soothe the bruises left by the failure of African Bank.
Africa: Nigeria’s banks stare down the barrel
May 2015
Inspired by the previous government’s agenda, Nigeria’s banks loaded up on loans to local oil and gas companies. The rapid decline in the price of oil has put many of the companies they lent to in distress. Can the banks cope with the potential fall-out?
Africa: New Islamic finance for a growing continent
May 2015
With expanding economies and hundreds of million Muslims, Africa deserves to be a bigger part of Islamic finance. After a slow start, there are signs the sector is beginning to gain the crucial mass and legislative backing it needs.
Bumpy ride for South African investors
May 2015
The Brics sovereign is still worrying the risk experts – and its downgrades seem likely to continue.
Africa: Adesina sets out stall for AfDB job
May 2015
Nigerian reformer reveals vision for the African Development Bank; blueprint for energy, private-sector loans.
Asia: Taxing times for Indonesia’s new finance minister
May 2015
Technocrat Bambang Brodjonegoro has plans to turn the country’s state-owned enterprises into regional, if not global, leaders. But the fall in the oil price could quickly scupper his ambitions, unless he can improve Indonesia’s terrible record on tax collection.
Poland: ECM bounces back as pension fears fade
May 2015
Funds ‘more selective’, say bankers; private equity exits boost supply.
Peru a safer prospect than Brazil, with Mexico and Colombia in its sights
May 2015
The Andean nation was riskier than Brazil not so long ago, but has risen through the LatAm rankings and might soon become the second-safest credit in the region behind Chile.
Mexico adds euros to century club
May 2015
Critics carp at cheap pricing; High yield and dollar trades fill pipeline.
May 2015
Peaceful elections in Nigeria herald a new era for the country, but will the elation last while depressed oil prices hold back the country’s development?
AFC inaugural Eurobond benefits from Nigeria’s post-election relief
May 2015
Africa Finance Corporation's (AFC) debut bond is buoyed by positive investor sentiment towards sub-Saharan Africa's (SSA) largest economy.
Latin America: Ecuador’s double-digit poser
April 2015
Questions over funding needs; investors spot ‘whiff of desperation’.
Latin America: Oil drop prompts Mexico review
April 2015
Growth rates revised downwards; investors still ‘cautiously’ optimistic.
Emerging market debt: Punishing original sin
April 2015
Emerging-market corporate debt – the fastest-growing asset class in the world – faces its first stress test, thanks to a surging dollar and rising US yields. As developing countries square up to another possible debt crisis, an increasingly inevitable round of corporate defaults threatens to swamp an illiquid market.
Emerging markets real estate: moving in for the long run
April 2015
Property continues to be popular. The big sovereign wealth funds appreciate the long-term prospects of developing countries, and have the flexibility to chase opportunities across structures, markets and cycles.
South Africa: Nene’s balancing act
April 2015South Africa is plagued by slow growth and escalating debt levels. So how can the country’s new minister of finance, Nhlanhla Nene, get the economy moving again while balancing the budget?
South Africa's finance minister sticks to fiscal guns
April 2015South Africa’s deteriorating economic outlook has fuelled fears of a credit downgrade to junk status. Nhlanhla Nene, South Africa’s minister of finance, explains to Euromoney the country's fiscal balancing act.
Middle East: War gives Lebanon’s banks an edge
April 2015Local firms are using the experience of doing business in acute political volatility for the next stage of their international expansion. Braving coups, corruption and violence, banks are expanding into some hair-raising countries.
| Building out Latin America's bond marketsMarch 2015 Currencies’ depreciation will test local appetite Brazil’s local markets brace to take the strain – free to access Mexico – the standard bearer – free to access Chile: Financing their own – free to access Colombia: New issuers needed – free to access Peru: Ready for a big leap forward – free to access |
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Egypt back in vogue, but still a high-risk investment
March 2015
A return to the international capital markets in April is whetting the appetite of yield-hungry investors eager to snap up the $1.5 billion Eurobond likely to herald the first in a series of market offerings. But are the sovereign borrower’s risks being ignored?
Emerging Europe: Turkish M&A on the rise
March 2015
Boosted by a rich run of privatizations, the Turkish M&A market burst into life last year, hitting the highest total value of deals for close to a decade. The hope for 2015 is that the same feat can be repeated. In an election year, anything is possible.
Lebanon sells $2.2 billion of bonds
March 2015
Biggest-ever bond sold in two tranches of 10 and 15 years, underpinned by robust banks.
Poland’s improving fortunes highlight pockets of safety in CEE
March 2015
The majority of Central and Eastern European sovereigns have been upgraded by Euromoney's country risk survey since the third quarter of 2014. Hungary is still irking the experts with its heightened political risks, but elsewhere there are still reasons to be cheerful about the region’s prospects.
Ghana-IMF deal faces hurdles amid likely delay
March 2015
Ghana has been in discussions with the IMF since September over a new programme, but the March deadline is likely to be missed as the administration seeks to resist pre-election giveaways and cut the public-sector wage bill, say analysts.
Emerging Europe: Belarus embarks on a charm offensive
March 2015
Belarus’s leaders are promising a dramatic package of reforms that could overhaul the country’s sclerotic command economy and reduce its dependence on Russia. The only trouble is, no one believes them. Mixed messages to the bond markets haven’t helped.
Belarus pushes private-sector plans
March 2015
Belarus’s first deputy economy minister Alexander Zaborovsky insists that policymakers are keen to boost the share of the private sector in the economy through the development of new businesses. This meets with a high degree of scepticism locally, given the government’s record on the treatment of entrepreneurs.
Emerging Europe: The growing pains of CEE private equity
March 2015
Successive crises have taken their toll on the private-equity industry in emerging Europe and enthusiasm for the region has waned. Nevertheless, its combination of strong growth and opportunities for convergence with western Europe continues to attract a hard core of supporters.
Hungary banking: The price of peace
March 2015
Viktor Orban’s spat with Hungary’s banks has cost the country dear. The bank tax may be on the way out, but the financial sector’s troubles are far from over.
Cote d’Ivoire kicks off African Eurobond market for 2015
February 2015
Cote d’Ivoire’s latest Eurobond and the first out of sub-Saharan Africa this year indicates investor appetite for African sovereign debt and the country’s strong fundamentals.
Ghana-IMF deal faces hurdles amid likely delay
February 2015
Ghana has been in discussions with the IMF since September over a new programme, but the March deadline is likely to be missed as the administration seeks to resist pre-election giveaways and cut the public-sector wage bill, say analysts.
Shake up in Ghana’s ministry of finance and central bank on the cards
February 2015
In a bid to tackle Ghana’s economic woes and restore confidence in government, Euromoney understands that the president might replace the central bank governor and minister of finance in the next couple of months.
Angola to test African Eurobond appetite
February 2015
Angola could become the first African sovereign bond borrower since the great oil price crash this year in a debut deal that will set the tone for frontier-market debt.
Emerging markets: Weak oil prices, stronger Africa
February 2015
The falling oil price has hit oil exporters hard, especially in Africa. But the region has three strengths that should protect its capital markets from the current crisis.
Latin America: Copper-bottomed Chile wrestles with risk
February 2015
Tax reforms from Chile’s new, left-leaning government are having an unsettling effect on the economy, which is also suffering from a plummeting copper price. The country’s new president is looking next to tackle inequality with further reforms, but as a result the pressure will ratchet up its strong credit rating.
Banking since the Arab Spring: Tunisia faces pain before reward
February 2015The World Bank reports that banks need profound reform; analysts catalogue a long list of problems; and the country’s new cabinet has been roundly rejected by most political parties. Can the new president juggle competing political factions and unblock the economic pipeline to bring badly needed growth quick enough?
Peru: Central bank to boost domestic currency lending
February 2015Central bank targets dollarized liabilities; banks will need higher reserves for dollars.
Choice of funding currency set to determine EM FX performance in 2015
February 2015Despite the strengthening dollar and lower oil prices, tactical opportunities in emerging market (EM) foreign exchange abound. The choice of funding currency will be crucial in driving returns in the asset class, say investors.
Default risk rises for emerging and frontier markets
January 2015
Euromoney Country Risk data show emerging and frontier bonds had across-the-board increases in risk in 2014.
African Eurobonds suffer as commodity prices slump
January 2015
African capital markets have been driven by a boom in Eurobond issue during the past two years, but supply and demand has come under fire after plummeting oil and commodity prices.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2014: Negative oil shock creates new threats
January 2015With falling oil prices sending the currencies of hydrocarbons producers tumbling, amid political instability, conflict risk and weak, unbalanced economies persisting, almost half the world’s sovereigns endured higher risk in 2014.
Corporates face long shadow of Ukraine
January 2015The crisis in Ukraine shows no sign of abating and its impact is being felt across the rest of emerging Europe. Phil Bennett, deputy head of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, explains why this is bad news for the region’s companies and what multilaterals can do to help.
Petrobras shuts Brazil out of international markets
January 2015Corruption scandal stymies bond issues; lack of supply may set stage for others.
Africa debt: Ethiopia tops off banner year for sovereigns
January 2015African DCM becoming more sophisticated; debt sustainability a concern.
Baltics: Lithuania seeks solace in eurozone
January 2015Single currency set to cut debt costs; diversifying trade from rampant Russia.
Africa: Regional dreams spur banks and their clients
January 2015Many of South Africa’s leading companies see a once-in-a-generation chance to build businesses across the continent. Banks in South Africa spy an opportunity too, by growing around the region alongside their clients. Can they make the most of it?
Emerging markets brace for stress test
January 2015Emerging market fixed-income and FX markets are poised for a third year of volatility thanks to a slowing China, strengthening dollar, lower oil prices, and the prospect of a US rate hike. The shortage of investable high yielders, as well as the declining creditworthiness of the likes of Russia and Venezuela, will also bedevil markets.
Saudi risk score plummets as oil shock intensifies
December 2015The sovereign’s risk score has fallen in recent days as lower oil prices add to the Kingdom’s existing economic, political and structural weaknesses.
Slowdown in world trade savages EM FX
December 2015Weak global trade and increasing import substitution have signalled bad news for emerging-market FX in 2014, particularly in those countries that rely on a vibrant export sector to drive their economies. 2015 should provide some respite for manufacturers, but commodity exporters will remain in the line of fire.
Emerging markets ride 2014 FX rollercoaster
December 2015EM currencies have taken a savage beating this year, tumbling to a decade low, thanks to falling oil prices, weaker growth, a stronger dollar and fears over reform inertia. Euromoney surveys the FX landscape for 2015.
Ukrainians pray for swift bounce-back for embattled hryvnia
December 2015The Ukrainian hryvnia has been ravaged in 2014, with the conflict with Russia exacerbating the challenges faced by this highly indebted economy.
Navigating Africa’s disparate markets
December 2014
Illiquid markets, limited exchanges and sometimes vague institutional information make Africa’s securities landscape difficult to navigate. Firms such as Imara are in a good place to act as guides.
Myanmar: first-mover advantage?December 2014It is not often new countries open up to international banks. Nine lenders have recently received licences to operate in Myanmar. It gives them a ready advantage in a country that lacks some basic infrastructure.
Teng adds heft to Abu Dhabi’s central ambitionsDecember 2014Second big hire this year; ramps up competition with Dubai.
Saudi Stock Exchange: Ambitious Al-Ghamdi manages expectationsDecember 2014What’s in a name? Adel Saleh Al-Ghamdi is the chief executive of the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul). The brackets are important. They are a sign of the increasing attention he and his institution are paying to the world outside Saudi Arabia.
Colombia faces oil price testDecember 2014No short-term response to price shift; fiscal discipline key to economy.
Gulf investing no longer a one-way streetDecember 2014Growing investor comfort in region; IFA culture developing.
LatAm: Rising rates will limit IPO activityDecember 2014Rising rates deter equity investors; Brazil no longer driving volumes.
Deutsche Börse plots expansion into emerging market FXNovember 2014Deutsche Börse's acquisition of a minority stake in R5FX, the London-based electronic trading venue specializing in emerging markets (EM) FX, is the latest in a series of strategic moves by the exchange to break into the FX market. Up to 20 banks have signed up for the March launch of a bank-to-bank liquidity pool for EM FX. The new normal for EMs
November 2014
China, the dollar and oil. All three are moving in novel directions.
Latin America: Sovereigns shape up for differentiationNovember 2014The time when international fund managers saw Latin America as a homogenous investment call is gone. The days of differentiation are here. And as many of the region’s leading countries look to make the difficult transition from developing to developed economies, their finance ministers are fully aware of the need to create, and tell, their individual investment cases.
IIF warns that Argentina faces a tough 2015November 2014The short- and medium-term outlooks for Argentina are increasingly diverging, says the Institute of International Finance.
Rising USD tide sinks EM boatsOctober 2014The dollar has begun what many expect will be a prolonged march higher after a multi-year bear run. A strengthening greenback has traditionally been bad news for emerging markets and the early signs suggest this time will be no different.
Looming China crisis adds to eurozone and emerging-market threats - ECR Q3
October 2014
The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey point to an unprecedented rise in risk across almost all geographical regions since June, with emerging markets (EMs) taking the biggest hit as doubts over China, the eurozone and US liquidity support weigh heavily on experts’ evaluations.
Argentina: Can Kirchner hold out?October 2014
Argentina’s president has tried to circumvent a New York ruling that caused it to default for the second time in 13 years. Can Cristina Fernández de Kirchner sort out the mess before elections in October 2015?
Structural reforms could pave way for peso resurgence in 2016October 2014It has been a gruelling few days for Latin American currencies, which have borne the brunt of asset allocations away from EMs and into an invigorated greenback, ahead of expected rates rises – but analysts believe the longer-term outlook for the Mexican peso looks brighter than most other EM currencies.
Lira in the eye of the stormOctober 2014Turkey’s embattled investors can be forgiven feeling defensive, with economic challenges closing in on them from every side – from the Middle East crisis and strengthening dollar to the stubborn current-account deficit.
Equity markets: Saudi Arabia’s big step forward
September 2014
Its stock market is the biggest in the region, but impenetrable. That is about to change: the local regulator says foreigners will be allowed to invest from next year. That’s a big deal.
Emaar Malls cements Gulf turnaround story
September 2014
Listing will inject much-needed liquidity; US banks secure key IPO lead mandates.
Bulgaria: Eurozone entry long way off
September 2014
Bulgaria’s ambition to join the euro is slipping further out of reach as the bank run on its fourth-largest lender Corporate Commercial Bank (KTB) brings allegations of corruption and political instability to the fore and further diminishes the country’s standing in Brussels, say analysts.
Angola’s sovereign wealth fund sets sights on alternatives
September 2014
Issues around transparency remain as Angola’s sovereign wealth fund gears up to invest.
Latin America: Destination Peru
September 2014
Lima will host the 2015 World Bank-IMF meetings. But will the country’s moment in the sun be blighted by the dark clouds of an economic slowdown?
Turkey struggles in search for sustainability
September 2014
There’s a new buzzword from Ankara to Istanbul in Turkey’s financial markets: sustainability. Not of the environmental kind, but borne of a desire to keep the positive developments of the country’s economy, and its banks, flowing.
Brics bank: requiem for a dream
September 2014
Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.
Emerging market FX moves to G10 beat
August 2014Emerging market (EM) currencies are behaving more like G10 currencies, at least in terms of the way they respond to changes in US rates, according to research by Nomura.
Samurai bond: Mexico diversifies via Japan
August 2014
Samurai deal consolidated; diversification in face of uncertainty.
Brazil: Local bonds rally on suppressed FX volatility
August 2014
High relative rates draw investors; elections weigh on rally.
CIMB: Malaysia merger moves Asia
August 2014
CIMB power grab looks set to shake up the region’s banking landscape.
Africa: Senegal opens an Islamic window
August 2014
The country is forging ahead in its aim of becoming a regional Islamic finance hub, issuing its debut sukuk in July. However, questions remain as to exactly how dedicated it is to reaching this goal.
Islamic bond market: Wrong way for Senegal
August 2014
Senegal should focus on diversifying funding channels rather than marketing itself as an Islamic finance hub, which could limit investor interest.
August 2014
The Fidesz government has the mandate to convert Hungary’s entire stock of FX retail loans. But that might not be the end of the battle for bankers.
Cote d’Ivoire’s return to Eurobond market prices within Kenya
July 2014
Cote d’Ivoire’s return to the Eurobond market with a $750 million deal, three years after default, saw huge demand and priced within Kenya’s debut issue just a month ago.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results H1 2014: EM rout prompts flight to safety
July 2014
The latest results from the ECR survey show emerging markets becoming riskier during the first half of this year, in contrast to the increasing safety offered by developed countries across the G10 and an improving eurozone.
Cote d’Ivoire’s return to Eurobond market prices within Kenya
July 2014
Cote d’Ivoire’s return to the Eurobond market with a $750 million deal, three years after default, saw huge demand and priced within Kenya’s debut issue just a month ago.
Get smart – reality check for investment banks in emerging markets July 2014Few houses have the wherewithal to be top five players across all asset classes in emerging markets. They should target opportunistic higher margin business.
Philippines set for infrastructure spending
July 2014
Tetangco talks up booming economy; asset bubbles the only danger.
LatAm DCM issuers ‘never had it so good’
July 2014US high yield investors add to demand; lack of supply will stretch into autumn.
Brazil: Investors to ‘return’ shares from Biosev’s IPO
July 2014Louis Dreyfus to repurchase 90% of deal; firm commitment IPOs under question.
Colombian credit hits international radar
July 2014Latin America’s fastest growing economy; international banks eye infrastructure projects.
Turkey debate: Turkey works to bridge its funding gap
July 2014Turkey’s economy is growing fast and the country has a large number of infrastructure projects in the pipeline. But with its corporates also on the hunt for more funding, the country’s banks cannot meet all the demand themselves.
ISIS forces banking rethink in Iraq
July 2014
Iraq’s economic potential may be enticing regional and western banks to develop operations there but the rise of the jihadist group is cause for alarm.
Nigeria banking: spreading their wings July 2014
Expansion beyond their domestic market highlights the ambition of Nigeria’s banks, but their success will be hampered without African cohesion.
Latin American DCM – the beeps squeak July 2014Latin America’s markets are as good as anyone can remember. If you’re an issuer, that is. Investors are not celebrating.Huge demand for Kenya debut Eurobond despite security risks
June 2014
Although terrorist attacks raged in Kenya at the beginning of the week, the country’s first Eurobond and the largest in the continent excluding South Africa was received well, highlighting sustained demand for emerging market debt.
South Korea one of a 'robust five' EMs, say risk experts
June 2014
The Asian tiger heads a select group comprising Poland, Israel, Colombia and Uruguay, all resisting the increased investor risks afflicting other EM sovereigns.
High-net-worth individuals shun emerging-market currenciesJune 2014
Despite the stunning revival of emerging-market currencies, and the fragile five in particular, high and ultra-high net worth individuals remain reluctant to increase their exposure, suggesting many funds have missed out on the rally.
Mongolia’s rising default risk flagged by falling score trendJune 2014
Crashing through ECR’s global rankings, the sovereign’s plight underscores the perils of investing on a risky frontier.
Is India bouncing back?June 2014
The world’s biggest democracy saw its risk score improve in the lead up to the elections, which might be the start of an upward trend.
Taiwan set for financial-sector mergers and acquisitionsJune 2014
Government seeks regional competitors; trade relations boost with China on hold.
Vietnam’s banking woes threaten wider economyJune 2014
Bad debt dents growth; foreign investment hampered by ownership limits.
India's investment bankers: A la ModiJune 2014
A new government could herald a more lucrative time for investment bankers in India.
No need for political pause in ColombiaJune 2014
Both presidential candidates market friendly; issuers’ credit strengths outweigh any political uncertainty.
Energy prices offer investment plays in BrazilJune 2014
Short-term gains for some energy firms and industrials; longer-term energy strategy review needed.
Mexico moves to boost derivatives tradingJune 2014
Standardization of trading and clearing; OTC set to decline.
Brazil’s banks face new portability rulesJune 2014
Will make loan transfers less attractive for banks; technology a main driver of competition.
South Africa shrugs off downgrade as rand holds steady
June 2014
The rand, as a high-beta benchmark for global risk appetite, has been buoyed up by benign international market conditions. However, analysts say a stubborn current-account deficit and weak growth suggest a bearish stance on the rand is appropriate in the medium to long term.
Huge demand for Kenya debut Eurobond despite security risksJune 2014
Although terrorist attacks raged in Kenya at the beginning of the week, the country’s first Eurobond and the largest in the continent excluding South Africa was received well, highlighting sustained demand for emerging market debt.
Banks of Iran: Six pieces of an Iranian jigsawJune 2014
Iran has a heavily populated and complex banking sector, with several large state-owned banks that hold most of the country’s assets and deposits and at least 17 privately owned banks that tend to be smaller but more nimble and entrepreneurial. Euromoney profiles six institutions that represent different parts of the picture.
Waiting for a windfall from IranJune 2014
Can Dubai take advantage of Tehran’s rapprochement with the US to once again become Iran’s de facto financial link to the world?
EM upgrade cements gains for UAE exchangesJune 2014
Markets rising as more investments kept at home; merger between main markets might occur.
Turkey treads waterJune 2014
Over-reliant on foreign investment to balance its books, Turkey is facing an investor retreat in the face of political instability. The long-term solution is a big expansion of domestic investment of untapped savings, but the instability is slowing this too.
Belarus faces a funding conundrumJune 2014
The Ukrainian crisis has come at a bad time for Belarus’s state-driven economy, already in urgent need of external financing to fend off a balance-of-payments crisis.
Bulgaria and Croatia on negative ECR trendJune 2014
Focusing on the larger, fragile EMs has deflected attention away from worrying risk trends afflicting other borrowers.
Fed effect vs Modi effect: the rupee-appreciation storyMay 2014
After the rupee’s spirited rally in line with the ascent of newly installed Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, analysts say rising US yields could undercut the currency, while others claim strong equity inflows and an improvement in the current account suggest appreciation for the rest of the year.
South Korea escapes Asia’s rising risksMay 2014
Asia has succumbed to increased risk during the past year, with experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey downgrading scores for the majority of these sovereigns. South Korea is among a handful bucking the trend.
Brazil: Rousseff’s water tortureMay 2014
A lack of rain to fill the dams that power Brazil is becoming a potential crisis. But as experts call for action to protect dwindling reservoirs the government refuses to act, and running the hydrology risk is becoming increasingly dangerous for it.
Costa Rica takes a surprise 30-year plungeMay 2014
Bond sale just before elections; investors shrug off bad numbers.
Venezuela embraces radical devaluationMay 2014
Barclays estimates 300% fall in bolivar; deficit should fall to 10%.
IFC bond aims to breathe life into Rwandan local debt marketMay 2014
The Rwanda debt market has been given a boost after the successful issue of the International Finance Corporation’s first bond in Rwandan francs, but regulators face an uphill battle to nurture the fledgling bond market.
Nigeria one of several SSA borrowers scaring investorsMay 2014
With faith slowly restored in Brazil, India and Indonesia this year, there is no longer a fragile five of large EMs, leading risk experts to shift focus to the fragility of borrowers in sub-Saharan Africa.
Nigeria’s Diamond Bank debuts with scaled down $200 million EurobondMay 2014
Diamond Bank is the latest Nigerian lender to issue Eurobond; dollar funding is necessary for the oil and gas sector.
The road to TripoliMay 2014
Engaging with the new Libya is no straightforward task for a foreign visitor.
Mozambique seeks to come onstreamMay 2014
The country has new wealth thanks to some big natural resource discoveries. They spell opportunity for both foreign and local institutions. How does such a small economy cope with such big demands?
Euromoney Country Risk Survey results Q1 2014: Confidence in EMs nosedives as eurozone trust returnsApril 2014
The rise in global risk witnessed in 2013 continued during the first quarter of this year as experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey reassessed the investment prospects of EMs versus their developed-country counterparts.
Mongolia: Golomt battles to restore its reputationApril 2014
It was the poster bank for a new Mongolia full of opportunity. But Golomt Bank’s reputation has mined unexpected depths over allegations of hidden defaults, lawsuits with leading financial institutions and a sudden parting of the ways with a globally respected CEO. Now a new group of executives is launching a fightback.
Muhammad Chatib Basri: Fight of the navigatorApril 2014
Indonesia’s finance minister, Muhammad Chatib Basri, has a clear mission: to make government easier to navigate – for its people, its companies and for foreign investors. His pragmatic approach is paying dividends. So much so that he might even be asked to stay on.
Uruguay: UAG waits for valuation rebound before IPOApril 2014
Suppressed valuations of companies in stock indices across Latin American are keeping IPO candidates at bay and the prospects for fresh issuances are remote, according to equity bankers.
Sovereign issuance: Mexico shouts about its entry into the A-clubApril 2014
Makes statement with 100-year sterling bond; more splash than a perp, says issuing official.
Salamé criticizes Lebanon’s low ratingApril 2014
Ratings pressure continues to hurt banks; Central bank pushes for culture change.
Emerging market liquidity squeeze: it’s the US current account, stupidMarch 2014
Did the contraction of the US current account reduce global dollar liquidity, triggering the rout in emerging markets? And would the continued contraction of the US trade balance spark a synchronized collapse in emerging-market deficit nations?
Long way to go but Pakistan’s risk profile steadily improvingMarch 2014
The upward trend in the sovereign’s risk-score has continued since the 2013 elections as the state taps the market for sufficient credit to close a substantial financing gap.
Rout-sizing: How will investment banks cope with the emerging market sell-off?March 2014
The roller coaster in emerging markets threatens one of the few consistent bright spots for investment banks since the global financial crisis. If the rout spreads, they could be faced with a sharp decline in FICC trading and a collapse in deal flow. But bankers remain remarkably sanguine. Could this be the sell-off that finally proves the EM asset class has come of age?
Emerging markets: A crisis of confidence
March 2014
Investors, bankers and policymakers were caught off-guard in early 2014 as new depths of pessimism about emerging markets were plumbed.
Emerging markets: Debt to pleasure
March 2014
Competition and jeopardy are on the way back in EM debt issuance.
Ice grips LatAm's equity markets
March 2014
The data is misleading, say analysts; the region’s markets are fundamentally fine. Institutional investors are sticking around, but local companies are finding that they need a convincing story to attract international money.
Azerbaijan gets another chanceMarch 2014
The birth of Azerbaijan’s capital markets has been continually predicted, but has never come to pass. Now a tiny IPO is raising renewed hopes of access to one of the richest frontier markets. Will this time be different?
Capital markets: Technicalities hamper Kazakhstan
March 2014
The prospect of progress in Azerbaijan’s equity markets throws into sharp relief the recent lack of it in those of its Caspian neighbour Kazakhstan.
Dominican Republic epitomizes LatAm’s problems and promise
March 2014
The country’s economy has a good growth record, but it is vulnerable to the effects of Fed tapering and rising interest rates. Can it tap the market for $1.5 billion this year? The authorities certainly think the nation’s story is good enough to guarantee it.
Latin America: Argentina recalibrates
March 2014
Peso and exchange reserves have taken a tumble, interest rates have spiked and the money supply has tripled, yet analysts remain confident the economy is fundamentally sound. Can president Kirchner get full control, or will she leave it to the next government?
South Africa at the centre of the sell-off
March 2014
Pravin Gordhan says that he has given a counter-cyclical boost to South Africa and built up its underlying growth potential. But with capital flowing out, what more can the finance minister do to cut the country’s twin deficits?
Investment risk: What the fragile five also share
March 2014
Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have more in common than macroeconomic numbers.
Turkey: Sweet fruit for the patient investor
March 2014
Turkey has been in a state of turmoil for the past year. The political troubles are home-grown; the economic woes have come from abroad. Both problems appear worse than they really are and present opportunities for those who can hold their nerve.
Private banking: African growth story spawns new class of oligarchs
March 2014
Africa’s economic growth over the past decade has propelled the number of high-net-worth individuals on the continent to new highs, creating a new and powerful class of super-wealthy Africans who are taking on oligarch status.
Emerging Europe: A free market for Georgia?
February 2014
Georgia’s youthful finance minister, Nodar Khaduri, is committed to an open, business-friendly economy and hopes to revive foreign direct investment. A pro-western, EU-focused approach is also a central policy plank.
Romania’s economy outpaces EU peers; governance fears remain
February 2014
Privatizations in the country promise to further turbo-charge growth, a bright spot in emerging Europe. But worries about the stability of the ruling coalition and governance persist.
Former Argentina policymakers predict new era of economic reforms post-2015 elections
February 2014
A shift in the political landscape in favour of pragmatists for the 2015 elections will trigger a slew of economic reforms to correct Argentina’s structural imbalances, Martín Redrado, the former central bank governor, and Miguel Kiguel, former finance secretary, tell Euromoney.
Making sense of the fragile-five category of emerging-market laggards
February 2014
Although market players discern substantial differences between the fragile-five economies – notably in their current-account profiles – they remain, as a group, especially vulnerable to domestic and international market shocks, says bearish analysts.
Ukraine’s depressing economic bind – and sovereign default risk
February 2014
The scale of Ukraine’s challenge to correct economic balances is staggering, even if a political consensus is reached that would see an IMF support package. What’s more, markets might be understating sovereign default risk given strict debt covenants in the 2015 Russian-backed dollar bond that is sure to be used in a regional chess game, say analysts.
Emerging market FX is showing greater risk differentiation in a low RORO world
February 2014
Emerging markets (EMs) are showing greater differentiation in risk correlations, despite the media hype, but notable risk correlations persist elsewhere for currency markets, especially economies tied to the commodities sector.
BlueBay bullish on emerging market investment-grade bonds
February 2014
For the ‘first time in history’, emerging market (EM) corporate debt is the highest‐yielding product amongst global credit indices, while corporate creditworthiness will be sustained, says BlueBay Asset Management’s portfolio manager.
Namibia’s risk score climbs to a record high
February 2014
The sovereign is now on a par with Botswana, signalling overdue credit-rating action.
Country risk debate: Does the recent sell-off in emerging markets constitute a crisis?
February 2014
With EM currencies and assets remaining highly volatile amid the recent market sell-off, we ask three Euromoney Country Risk experts whether a wider economic crisis is on the horizon.
African Development Bank president warns new oil producers on resource curseFebruary 2014
Kenya, Mozambique and Tanzania – new African producers – should not be complacent on Dutch-disease risks, warns Donald Kaberuka, president of the African Development Bank and respected economist.
Difficult weeks ahead for the EMs
February 2014
The bad start to 2014 for EMs shows that economic fundamentals still count and should be taken as a warning shot across the bows, writes Johan Krijgsman, of Krijgsman & Associates.
Everything you wanted to know about FX volatility but were too afraid to ask
February 2014
Given monetary interventions since the financial crisis, FX volatilities have erred on the low side and should remain depressed, challenging easy FX profits. However, the risk premium in emerging market (EM) FX is now trading back in line with equities rather than G10 FX, presenting trading opportunities.
Ghana capital controls underscore FX fallout; won’t tackle structural problem
February 2014
The west African republic’s recent interest-rate hikes and foreign-exchange regulation changes are only short-term measures to halt the free-falling cedi. Structural changes will be needed for meaningful change.
Latin America offers pockets of resilience to EM risk aversion
February 2014
ECR experts’ faith in Chile, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay is rewarded as stronger economies linked to fewer political problems survive the rout, but Brazil slides along with Argentina and Venezuela.
Africa safe from China slowdown – for now
February 2014
While China’s economic slowdown has had repercussions on global emerging markets, frontier markets – specifically China’s trade partners in Africa – have been relatively insulated from the storm, sheltered in part by their limited financial systems. And, perhaps surprisingly, analysts are sanguine about the outlook for commodity-intensive trade.
South Africa pleads for global coordination amid Fed backlash
February 2014
South Africa’s finance minister Pravin Gordhan added his voice to the growing chorus of Bric policymakers sounding the alarm over the negative spillover effects of US monetary policy.
EM FX safety questioned as money flows back to leading currencies
February 2014
The past few days have seen a spike in global markets’ volatility, a broad-based sell-off in many emerging markets’ currencies, and interest rate hikes in India, Turkey, and South Africa, raising fears this rout in the EM world might gather momentum.
Frontier markets to withstand Fed tapering
January 2014
As Fed tapering gathers momentum, frontier markets in Africa are not as vulnerable as their emerging market heavyweights, but those with higher current-account deficits will feel the pressure.
Emerging market sell-off as a weak dollar/strong renminbi crisis
January 2014
Global current-account rebalancing and exchange-rate misalignments account for the emerging-market rout, according to the Keynesian school of thought that looks at monetary trends and flow of funds.
Latin America: Region relies on Mexico for growth
January 2014
Strength of economic recovery exaggerated; necessary reforms in Brazil are lacking.
Turkish political risk compounds vulnerability to US tapering
January 2014
Central bank takes action to mitigate a prolonged lira slump.
Bitcoin: big in emerging markets
January 2014
Surveys suggest that virtual currencies look a safer bet than local stocks and property.
Fed to emerging markets: 'Our currency, your problem' – for now
January 2014
The Fed added insult to emerging-market injury when it failed to acknowledge the EM rout this week, confirming the resolutely domestic focus of its monetary stance despite the international spill-over effects. The move reignites the debate about global monetary co-ordination.
Rating agencies: Arc sees a gap in emerging-market corporate ratings
January 2014
Pool of large unrated firms set to grow; uphill battle to establish market share.
Africa: Sovereigns weigh the price of diversification
January 2014
African countries’ ability to access diversified funding is becoming more important. Deepening the local-currency bond markets is essential, but is the price worth paying? And are development organizations doing enough?
Currency rout puts Argentina’s domestic problems in focus
January 2014
The peso’s plunge precipitating the emerging markets sell-off is bang in line with its lowest-scoring economic risk indicator, and is a home-grown problem linked to an incoherent economic plan and poor communication.
Emerging market plunge: Sino the times?
January 2014
Not all emerging markets are in free fall, investors are discriminating between surplus and deficit countries, it’s not all China’s fault, and domestic EM policies matter.
Emerging-market rout: this time it’s personal
January 2014
Emerging-market assets have fallen thanks to domestic policy risks, rather than Fed-tapering fears, triggering market contagion, as Turkey and Argentina lurched into crisis mode. However, India’s economic rebalancing shows the way forward for EMs out-of-market favour.
Emerging markets: more weakness to come
January 2014
A massive currency sell-off this week echoes the dark days of emerging-market crises, say bears. Analysts are resolutely underweight emerging market bonds and stocks, citing the legacy of the recent credit boom and the absence of structural reforms.
Indonesia the most vulnerable of a fragile five as experts reassess emerging markets
January 2014
A toxic combination of large external financing gaps and US liquidity withdrawal has increased the risks of investing in triple-B rated emerging market (EM) sovereigns. With many countries facing elections this year and stalling on structural reforms, economists taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey have placed five of the larger EMs under the microscope.
Jury out on African Eurobonds amid Fed-tapering threat
January 2014
A flurry of Eurobond issuance out of Africa was characterized by cheap funding as portfolio funds flooded Africa looking for yields, but as Fed tapering comes to the fore, African sovereigns might tilt back towards local currency bond markets.
Capital flows: Ghana rating actions show African currency risks
January 2014
Fiscal slippage, less FDI and lower export prices make Ghana among most vulnerable; Eurobond access still cheap.
CEE M&A: Mind the valuation gap
January 2014
A flurry of strategic sales by western investors and private equity firms kept corporate financiers busy last year. But these deals mask a problem: while financing is plentiful, sellers can’t bring themselves to be realistic on pricing.
Zambia faces 8.5% yield for Eurobond – analyst
January 2014
Zambian policymakers are poised to tap the international market for a second time, but they cannot expect similar terms set in the 2012 issue.
Profits feel the squeeze at Bolivia’s banks
January 2014
New financial services law on the way; Will constrain bank profits.
DCM: A good time for African Eurobonds
January 2014
Fed tapering will prompt rises in yields for African hard-currency debt, but this doesn’t mean that countries with strong economic fundamentals should hold off issuing.
Mandela’s legacy – Africa’s rise
January 2014
Africa’s growth is one tribute to the former president’s legacy.
January 2014
Foreign buyers are attracted by news of an export-led recovery and privatizations. Getting them hitched for the long term, however, will require a boost in local macroeconomic demand, including dealing with banks’ residual bad debts.
Reversal of fortune and flows to weigh on emerging market currencies this year
January 2014
The bear case for EM FX markets has gathered momentum, with more and more analysts questioning the medium-term to long-term investment case.
Islamic liquidity project faces Saudi hurdle
December 2013
Inaugural sukuk issued; key constituent quietly leaves.
Political crisis compounds Thailand’s rising risk trend
December 2013
Risk experts had been losing faith in Thailand before its political problems resurfaced.
Value stocks to lead tenuous emerging market equities recovery in 2014, but investors pickier
December 2013
After a roller-coaster ride this year sparked by fears of Fed tapering, emerging market equities could be calmer in 2014, but will continue to face challenges as investors reappraise the risk-reward expectation.
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No end in sight for emerging market bond woes
December 2013
It’s been a torrid year for emerging market local- and hard-currency bonds. After a 2012 rally, credit picking has reigned supreme and the conventional investment case – emerging markets are at a different stage of the credit-rating and growth cycle than developed market issuers – took a knock.
Ukraine on the edge as external financing requirement hits 40% of GDP
December 2013
With a shrinking economy and a deteriorating balance of payments, Ukraine is in a downward spiral that risks plunging the country into crisis if the current political unrest is not defused with haste.
Africa net inflows in 2013: FDI flood, capital-flow drought
December 2013
Long-term foreign-direct investment into sub-Saharan Africa should remain buoyant despite the threat of Fed tapering, with commodity-rich countries outperforming, say analysts at Fitch, after 2013 saw weak portfolio flows and a boom in FDI.
South Africa and Nigeria lag as internet set to add $300 billion to Africa’s GDP
December 2013
Internet connectivity in Africa has the potential to transform the continent, contributing up to $300 billion to GDP by 2025, according to a McKinsey report. However, some of the country’s most advanced economies, such as South Africa and Nigeria, are lagging behind other innovative peers, says Paul Cook of Silvertree Capital.
Nigeria banks’ results belie equity enthusiasm
December 2013
Banks heading for profit decline in 2013; stock market continues strong performance.
Turkey debate: Turkey looks towards global financial centre status
December 2013
Bankers discuss the progress made so far and the potential for Turkey to become a vibrant financial services hub.
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Disaster forces re-examination of Philippines’ growth prospects
November 2013
Typhoon Haiyan is tempering exuberance over the Philippines’ growth story by exposing structural limits on its growth potential – most significantly inadequate infrastructure and governance issues.
Poland safer than its credit ratings suggest
November 2013
Poland’s secure risk profile is still justified, according to economists and other country-risk experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey. With the sovereign holding steady this year in ECR’s global rankings, and on a longer-term upward trend, its credit ratings should be adjusted upwards.
Asia dollar credit to ride out emerging-market storm
November 2013
As economic headwinds increase across Asia, darker clouds could be about to descend on the region’s corporate credit markets thanks to increased pressure on balance sheets. However, on a relative-value basis, Asia still looks attractive.
South Africa: Five reasons why it’s the worst of the Brics – for now
November 2013
South Africa has, on the face of it, huge strengths: commodities, rule of law, strong institutions and consumption prospects, a social contract – aided by decent incomes per capita – and a sophisticated financial system, among other factors. But it’s failing in five key areas.
ECR: In search of the next investment-grade sovereign
November 2013
Identifying countries ripe for an investment-grade rating is a complicated task, with the main rating agencies differing in their assessments of credit risk. Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey highlights several borrowers with bright prospects, having successfully predicted the shift from junk status to investment grade for the Philippines earlier this year.
Africa: Layfield makes her case, in a new era
November 2013
StanChart regional CEO targets Nigeria, Angola; sets hopes on electronic channels.
IMF/World Bank: A convention of complacency
November 2013
The spotlight shone on emerging markets: their growth prospects amid a disappointing pace of structural reform in recent years, and the impact of Fed tapering on high-yield regions.
Junk status not on the cards for Brazil, say ECR experts
November 2013
Speculation concerning possible junk status for Brazil might be wide of the mark, according to data from Euromoney Country Risk.
November 2013
Tinkoff has sold a clever story of another kind of Russian bank.
China ‘bad bank’ plan perplexes market amid secret debt workouts
November 2013
The Chinese government says it wants to transform its asset management companies – established to take on growing bad debts in the banking system – into commercially driven enterprises. In reality, a lack of transparency on portfolio loans means analysts are none the wiser as to the scale of the problem and the resolution process for legacy loans.
UK Treasury China-bank charm offensive exposes regulatory arbitrage
November 2013
The UK Treasury’s courtship of Chinese banks highlights, in part, London’s relatively flexible regulatory regime for foreign banks – in contrast to the Fed. It also opens up a broader debate about subsidiarization and global banking models, more generally, amid regulatory turf wars.
China’s latest swap agreement will facilitate trade
November 2013
Swap agreement reflects growing trade; London has competitive advantage.
Equity capital markets: Li looks to IPO market as ParknShop sale fails
November 2013
AS Watson under strategic review; IPO would be Asia’s biggest in three years.
Emerging markets: Standard Chartered shrugs off shifting sentiment
October 2013
Bank grows trade finance volumes; Expansion continues in emerging markets.
Investment in sub-Saharan Africa on the rise as capital markets gather steam
October 2013
Demand for sub-Saharan African (SSA) assets is increasing as anticipation continues to build towards the region’s future growth potential, in particular a nascent rebalancing away from resource-dependency towards a consumer market.
FX reserve acceleration gives emerging-market investors breathing space
October 2013
Just months after the prospect of Federal Reserve tapering raised questions about the ability of some emerging market (EM) reserve managers to shore up their currencies value in the face of a resurgent dollar, stockpiles are on the rise again.
Navigating emerging market currency volatility
October 2013
Unilever this week became the latest company to attribute slowing sales growth to turmoil in emerging market currencies.
Cash management in Brazil: Local knowledge bears fruit
October 2013
Local banks like to see themselves as uniquely suited to offering cash management services to Brazilian companies. But the global banks are also getting up to speed on idiosyncratic client requirements and local regulation.
Brazil’s real: Playing into speculators’ hands
October 2013
Brazil’s FX swap intervention is arming speculators for further attacks on the real.
Private equity: Cooling Brazil offers PE opportunities
October 2013
Big increase in regional private equity activity; particularly attractive metrics in Brazil.
Debt capital markets: Taper or no, Federation shows Russia demand
October 2013
Issuer ‘comes of age’; creates first euro benchmark.
Tinkoff IPO beats consumer credit fears
October 2013
The IPO of Tinkoff Credit Systems, a Russian consumer finance bank, trounces rivals’ valuations, even as bad debts tick up and tighter regulations loom.
India still a crumbling Bric as China strengthens: ECR Q3 2013
October 2013
India is waning due to its political uncertainties, lagging reforms, slow growth and currency weakness boosting debt.
Agricultural Bank of China economist warns economic reform hinges on politics
October 2013
Xiang Songzuo, chief economist of state-owned ABC, says China’s next raft of reforms – from retooling state-owned enterprises to tackling local government debt burdens and environmental challenges – will involve a disruptive shift in the political system.
US Treasury renminbi undervaluation claim disputed
October 2013
The US government has upped the ante in its criticism of China’s foreign exchange regime, but Lombard Street Research reckons the renminbi is, in fact, overvalued by 30% on a trade-weighted basis, citing, in part, rising unit labour costs and disinflationary pressures.
India still a crumbling Bric as China strengthens: ECR Q3 2013
October 2013
Only China, now the safest of the five Brics, has a higher score compared with the beginning of this year.
Jury still out on China’s commitment to liberalization of financial system
October 2013
The Shanghai free-trade zone (FTZ), China’s grand experiment with liberalizing interest rates and opening its capital account, has only a short window of opportunity to convince the markets that the Communist Party is serious about reform.
Cash management: A revolution in cash for China
October 2013
Demand for sophisticated cash management services in China is rising as the authorities press for greater business efficiency at home and Chinese corporates expand their foreign operations. Renminbi liberalization is another driver.
Make or break time at China’s third plenum
October 2013
High hopes for sweeping reform; Li says country is at crucial juncture.
Shanghai’s FTZ is not a threat
October 2013
The new free-trade zone in Shanghai is much more likely to invigorate Hong Kong as a financial sector than threaten it.
New China import tax might take the heat out of coal
October 2013
On September 3, Beijing announced a 3% tax on coal imports with low calorific value. Some market analysts are concerned that the tax might have a negative impact on Indonesian exports of thermal coal as the levy could remove any price advantages. Between January and July this year, Indonesia accounted for 97% of China’s lignite imports.
Commodities: Adaro fuels Asia’s hunger for power
October 2013
As China’s appetite for commodities appears to be fading, demand for Indonesian coal could also fall, putting the export economy under stress. Mining company Adaro explains why the future is still bright.
International RMB: Luxembourg 1 Rest of Europe 0
October 2013
London should be wary of the Duchy’s ambitions to become Europe’s RMB hub.
Emerging market currency volatility challenges multinationals’ risk management
September 2013
Corporate treasurers are riding out the volatility buffeting emerging market (EM) currencies, employing a variety of strategies to mitigate exchange rate risk, from forward contracts to natural hedges, such as operating in local currency.
Indonesia rate hikes urged as high inflation challenges rebalancing efforts
September 2013
The sharp depreciation of Indonesia’s currency risks plunging the country into a balance-of-payments crisis because any competitive edge afforded by the weak rupiah is being sapped by high inflation, without more aggressive monetary action, say analysts.
Emerging markets: New frontier hands Brics a blow
September 2013
Maybe frontier markets can take the place such economies as Brazil, Russia, India and China held during the past two decades, as growth decelerates and investors tire of the Brics.
G20 wades in on emerging-market rout
September 2013
Hopes are growing that concerted Brics policy action – with the creation of a $100 billion swap fund – and bargain-hunting will help engineer a rebound in sentiment towards EM currencies.
Brazil's economic growth: A test of credibility
September 2013
Despite Roussef’s protestations, only structural reform will put Brazil back on a growth path.
CRT breaks ground for Brazil infrastructure
September 2013
It was second time lucky for the first Brazilian toll-road financing to come to the market without the support of BNDES. The initial attempt ended in confusion. A year later, the revived deal under new leadership faced severe headwinds.
CRT: Building blocks of Brazil’s first project finance bond
September 2013
CRT was a natural candidate to open the project finance bond market in Brazil because the sponsors of Rodovias do Tietê are Atlantia Bertin Concessões (a 50/50 joint venture of Atlantia and Bertin), and Ascendi (a 60/40 joint venture of Mota-Engil and Banco Espírito Santo). They have experience of these structures in Europe.
Brazil markets will instigate policy change – BlackRock
September 2013
BlackRock’s Gerardo Rodriguez Regordosa says he believes that the markets are punishing Brazil for policy mistakes and that this is likely to lead to a shift in economic policy by the government of Latin America’s biggest economy.
Brazil: BNDES strategy confusion
September 2013
The level of commitment of Brazilian development bank BNDES to support new capital market structures to finance infrastructure projects has been thrown into doubt by the bank’s recent strategy.
Brazil oil and gas sector seeks to shake off Batista break-up
September 2013
Capital-hungry borrowers seeking to plug the huge infrastructure deficit in Latin America’s largest economy through international capital markets are hoping Eike Batista’s OGX group will avoid default.
Devil is in the detail in EM currencies
September 2013
Among EM currencies, Morgan Stanley’s strategists named the real, South Africa’s rand, India’s rupee, rupiah and lira the “fragile five”. Still, investors should beware tarring all five with the same brush, some analysts say.
Russian banks play truth or dare
September 2013
During the past three years, Russian banks have plastered over holes in the corporate sector with record profits from retail. The choice now might be between fuelling a bubble or stagnation.
Metal prices bring Rusal more challenges
September 2013
In mid-2013, Rusal had its lowest net debt level since 2008: less than $10 billion, Oleg Mukhamedshin, deputy CEO, tells Euromoney. He says the firm hopes to reduce debt further – from six times ebitda – via internal cashflow, dividends from Norilsk Nickel, assets disposals and new equity issuance.
India continues battle on rupee volatility
September 2013
Raghuram Rajan, the new head of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), has his work cut out to turn around the fortunes of India’s economy, with the rupee coming under renewed pressure, having staged a brief recovery immediately following his appointment.
India slowdown sparks debate over threat from shadow financing
September 2013
Concerns are mounting about the risks to India’s financial health posed by a growing shadow banking sector that has helped fund a decade-long investment-fuelled consumption and investment boom.
China sows seeds for next global downturn
September 2013
The emerging market sell-off since May is just the start of a painful multi-year adjustment process – and China has blazed a trail for the next downturn. Capital abundance, deflationary pressures and imbalanced global demand continue to drive the 15-year cycle of credit booms and busts.
Big-game hunting for China’s POEs
September 2013
State-owned companies have, until now, set the tone in China. But as economic growth slows and state-driven capital market activity founders, banks are hunting for business from China’s privately owned, ambitious enterprises.
Bank shortcomings exposed as Chinese economy founders
September 2013
The Chinese economy is growing ever more slowly – probably slipping even faster than officially admitted, and from a base whose size is possibly exaggerated too. In the midst of this, the orthodox banking sector is doing unorthodox things on a grand scale, while being undermined and bypassed by an even more unorthodox grey financial sector.
China: Government bond futures return after 18 years
September 2013
Risk-control measures in place; further step in economic liberalization.
Bank hiring practices: US regulators turn spotlight on Hong Kong
September 2013
Banks everywhere hire well-connected employees as standard practice. Why should Hong Kong so grate with US regulators?
Foreign investors wary of China onshore risks
September 2013
The preferred method for playing Chinese credit markets remains the dim sum bond market, say analysts, as China’s expansion of access to its onshore market is met with a cool reception by foreign investors.
Jin-Yong Cai: An activist at the IFC
September 2013
The new head of the International Finance Corporation, Jin-Yong Cai, tells Euromoney about the need for the World Bank’s private-sector arm to take more risks and be more activist in developing policy ideas in such areas as infrastructure development and poverty reduction.
Emerging market FX growth underperforms broader market
September 2013
Emerging market (EM) currencies are expected to continue to expand their share of the $5.3 trillion-a-day global forex market despite the turmoil, with China’s RMB leading the charge.
Brazil risks becoming latest emerging-market victim of stagflation as economy falters
September 2013
Brazil’s recovery is being cut off at the knees by a set of economic challenges that have all come home to roost – from a depreciating currency and rising current-account deficit to structural problems, including an overdependence on credit-fuelled consumption.
Latin America: Bankers caught in valuation divide
August 2013
With sellers and buyers in LatAm equity issuance and M&A finding it difficult to agree on valuations, banks are hard pressed to get deals away.
Brazil private banking debate: Brazil’s private banks adapt to a changing economy
August 2013
Wealthy Brazilians’ traditional dependence on positive real interest rates for investment returns has been undermined. Euromoney’s roundtable of private bankers discusses how wealth managers are developing new investment opportunities for their clients and how those clients are responding.
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Business trickles back to Gulf dealmakers
August 2013
Amid unabated political change, Middle East investment bankers are seeing a gradual return of deal flow after years of scarcity. Euromoney asks them where and why that might be happening, and how far it can go.
China Retail Gold Survey 2013: China’s gold market takes its own path
August 2013
Activity and prices remain buoyant in China’s gold markets despite the slip in prices in the west
Politics hobbles change in Vietnam
August 2013
Following the arrest of the main shareholder of Vietnam’s Asia Commercial Bank, Nguyen Duc Kien, the Vietnamese government has introduced a state-owned asset management company to clean up the country’s opaque banking sector. But how committed to change is Vietnam’s leadership?
Reversal of FX reserve growth spells danger for ‘fragile five’ EM currencies
August 2013
EM FX reserves have grown to record levels in recent years, but a reversal of the accumulation trend threatens to further exacerbate weakness in local currencies that has been seen during the past few months.
Capital flows: Is the great rotation finally here?
August 2013
Money has been flowing out of fixed income and into equities since Bernanke’s speech in May.
BlackRock's sovereign risk index notes growing emerging-market debt risks
July 2013
BlackRock’s sovereign risk index aims to provide an alternative credit opinion to the big-three agencies, Fitch, S&P and Moody’s, thanks to market and regulatory demand for alternative assessments of government creditworthiness.
India at a watershed as it confronts the spectre of stagflation
July 2013
The Brics economies are all experiencing difficult growing pains, but India is probably most at risk of being left behind, afflicted by slowing growth and a raft of legacy structural problems it failed to tackle in the good times.
Meet the contrarian bond market bulls as summer volatility beckons
July 2013
Some credit managers are predicting a market rally, at least in the short term, as the recent market sell-off restores value in the bond markets.
EM currency undervaluation at lowest in 10 years
July 2013
EM FX is less undervalued than it has been for a decade despite the sharp falls in high-yielding currencies, such as the Turkish lira, Indian rupee and South African rand, in recent months.
Capital markets: Pricing keeps Latin American issuers out of market
July 2013
Likely QE tapering prompts investor rethink; most funding needs already met.
Foreign exchange: Latin America currency volatility driven by changing allocations
July 2013
US dollar strengthening in anticipation of QE tapering; in response, emerging market assets have repriced.
Currencies the best way to hedge against China crash
July 2013
Investors looking to insure against the probability of a hard landing in China should look to the currency market.
Middle East: UAE and Qatar wait for index boon
July 2013
Al Noor listing shows reality; Morocco suffers on frontier downgrade.
China: Bankers welcome China clampdown
July 2013
Bankers focus on positives; say authorities will strike right balance.
Capital flows: Twin crises hit Turkey’s growth story
July 2013
Protest clampdown amid emerging market sell-off; central bank seen delaying rate increases.
Emerging markets: After the rout
July 2013
June was the worst month for emerging markets since at least 2008. What about the next five years?
Africa’s wings clipped as pockets of uncertainty re-emerge – ECR Q2 2013 results
July 2013
The southern continent’s risk build-up is underlined by falling scores for South Africa and Zimbabwe, but many other African bond issuers have resisted the downturn.
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Russia and CIS satellites failing to impress – ECR Q2 2013 results
July 2013
With one or two exceptions, the majority of former Soviet independent states, alongside Russia, have become riskier this year, continuing longer-term trends.
Nomura sounds alarm on rising risk in Asia
July 2013
While emerging Asia is gunning to diversify its investment-led GDP cycle in favour of domestic growth drivers, fundamental weaknesses in the region limit policy options. As a result, emerging Asia is finding itself in ever more risky territory, argues Nomura.
End of an era for emerging market credit?
June 2013
The violent synchronized sell-off in emerging market assets – across FX, local rates and credit – raises the spectre of a new normal: the end of unsustainably high foreign ownership of assets, particularly local currency credit, greater credit differentiation and the waning power of financial repression in the US as a fillip to EM flows, bearish analysts say.
Dark clouds hover over emerging markets as US Federal Reserve spoils rates party
June 2013
Signs the Fed will scale back its asset-buying programme by year-end have triggered an emerging market rout akin to the October 2008 crisis. Tighter real yields in emerging markets threaten to cause macroeconomic and market panic in the months ahead, as Bric growth slows.
Hawkish Fed cures dollar’s schizophrenia
June 2013
The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve at its policy meeting has put a stop to the dollar’s divergent performance, which had seen it lose ground against leading currencies and advance against most emerging market (EM) currencies in recent weeks.
China’s FX carry trade: the next shoe to drop?
June 2013
For FX investors witnessing the volatility in high-yielding currencies, it might seem a strange time to warn about the potential bursting of a carry trade bubble, but one has managed to slip under the radar.
EM FX rout could turn into a bloodbath
June 2013
The stress witnessed in local bond markets during the past few weeks has driven emerging market currencies sharply lower, but the sell-off might only just be starting.
US falls behind the curve as China pushes forth with internationalization of the RMB
June 2013
As the internationalization of the renminbi takes off this year, chances are that New York will be left behind, says Andy Seaman, fund manager and partner at Stratton Street Capital, a London-based investment fund manager.
Tax removal a bullish game-changer for Brazilian real
June 2013
The Brazilian real looks set to escape the sell-off sweeping across emerging market (EM) currencies after the country’s government scrapped the tax on overseas investments in domestic bonds.
Latin America: Are emerging market indices telling the right story?
June 2013
The popularity of some seemingly high-risk frontier bond issues suggests investors are driven by the need to fill index allocations rather than issuer quality. It also suggests the traditional market-capitalization approach of indices needs reconsideration.
Gear up for emerging market local bond sell-off amid global deflation
May 2013
A sell-off in emerging market local currency debt is on the cards amid global deflation, a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, say bearish analysts. If these predictions ring true it won’t be pretty for FX unhedged real money investors.
Fed QE not the only game in town; correlation breakdown points to currency regime change
May 2013
The prospect of the Federal Reserve tapering its quantitative easing (QE) programme has been the main pre-occupation of currency investors during the past month, but there are wider forces at play that suggest a regime shift in the FX market.
EM local currency debt rides high as inflation slows
May 2013
Record low yields in emerging market local currency debt is fuelling concern among some investors over a bubble, but analysts and asset managers insist the growth picture and slow inflation in many core EM economies justify increased allocations.
Mongolia might face 'major macroeconomic instability', says top analyst
May 2013
Against the backdrop of a more friendly posture towards international investors, Mongolia’s commodity-reliant economy is poised for more cyclical volatility, warns a top central Asian investor.
Argentina’s domestic bonds offer little choice
May 2013
Value hard to find among corporates; financials likely to be hit by heavier regulation.
Correlation breakdown bodes well for EM currency investors
April 2013
There has been a welcome change for currency investors since the start of the year as the correlations between emerging market (EM) currencies have dropped to levels last seen before the eruption of the financial crisis.
Kenya poised for Eurobond issuance
April 2013
Kenya’s debut and benchmark Eurobond is set to plug the deficit and to finance infrastructure, with analysts predicting that strong demand will offset any premium for political risk or fiscal laxity.
International investors flock back to Thailand
April 2013
Strong foreign demand; Philippines to follow.
Foreign investors flock into the Philippines
April 2013
It is not just the capital markets that are looking up.
Latin American debt: When US rates begin to rise
March 2013
A large part of the debate on Latin American debt issuance will be resolved by what happens to the high level of liquidity that is available to Latin American issuers today when higher yields are available from the developed markets, and in particular in the US. Will the demand from international investors rotate back into developed market assets or will it stay emerging market focused?
Dollar strength could trigger emerging market crisis – UBS
March 2013
A repeat of an emerging market crisis of yesteryear can't be ruled out – thanks to the prospect of a sharp contraction in domestic credit supply and portfolio flows – amid dollar strength, warns George Magnus at UBS.
Indian summer for LatAm debt markets?
March 2013
There has been a steady increase in international Latin American debt issuance recently. But is this masking a trend towards local-currency issuance, specifically in local markets?
Asian inflation-linked bonds come of age amid strong demand for Thailand’s second issue
March 2013
Strong foreign demand powered Thailand’s second inflation-linked bond, highlighting expectations of price pressures in developing Asia and the shortage of investable inflation-hedging products.
March 2013
Damian Glendinning, treasurer, Lenovo, sounds the alarm on the Asian bond market and says the loan market offers hedge against refinancing risks thanks to relationship banking.
Emerging markets waning irrespective of QE conundrum
February 2013
The prospect that quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve could come to an end much sooner than expected has frightened investors, but the negative effects on emerging markets shouldn’t be overstated, say analysts.
Bird's-eye view of emerging markets in the global currency wars
February 2013
The multi-year investment bet: meet the emerging markets whose exchange rates need to strengthen or weaken, or where domestic demand needs to cool down amid overheating risks.
Call for dollar bull-run premature
February 2013
The potential for the Federal Reserve to exit its ultra-loose policy stance has led some to believe that 2013 is the year the dollar will stage a rally and break free from the bear market that has pressured the currency for more than 10 years – but those calls are likely to be premature.
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Latin America: Concerns about the US hang over fresh DCM
February 2013
No rush to fund at outset of 2013; strong expectations of later pick-up.
You need to worry about Chinese local government-related trust companies – not their bonds
February 2013
Bonds and trust companies have become a popular means of local governments in China to finance themselves, following a regulatory-driven reduction in bank lending. But the risks held by both forms of capital-raising should not be considered the same.
Economic policy reform in Venezuela unlikely
February 2013
Venezuelan bond yields rallied after currency devaluation and news that Hugo Chavez’s health has continued to deteriorate. But yields are due to rise again as meaningful regime change is unlikely, say analysts.
EM policymakers to sit out the currency war as EM FX correlation hits decade low
Fenruary 2013
Currency war has been dominating the headlines, but there is little reason to suppose that EM policymakers are set to join the fray.
India re-discovers its economic mojo
February 2013
Finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram has battled valiantly to feed the nimble elephant that is the Indian economy at its best, restarting its stalled fiscal and liberalization agenda. But market expectations are sky-high ahead of the election year and recent evidence that the economy has run out of steam.
Islamic banking: Egypt approves sukuk bill as financing crunch hits
February 2013
Egypt’s Islamist government is making preparations for the country’s first sovereign sukuk, as foreign-currency reserves and the credit rating rapidly decline because of continued political turmoil.
Sell-side denial of a repeat of the 1994 market sell-off
January 2013
For all the chatter among sell-side analysts on the possibility of the bond markets crashing in the way that they did in 1994 on the Federal Reserve's rate tightening, their buy-side clients appear less concerned.
Emerging market bonds: bubble trouble
January 2013
International money is flying into emerging market sovereign bond markets with frontier credits, such as Zambia, Mongolia and Bolivia, now boasting low yields. The jury is out on whether there is a bubble brewing in developing bond markets in hard currency.
Mongolia’s sovereign bond has teething problems
January 2013
When Mongolia issued its debut sovereign bond in late November, international investors showed immediate and keen interest. But a spat within the coalition government resulted in the bond’s price plummeting dramatically, threatening to completely undermine the initial positive reaction.
Bond markets: LatAm dim sum whets Asian appetite
January 2013
Public and private deals ‘to grow’; offshore US funds also active in CNH.
Brazil economy: is the party over?
January 2013
Despite the country’s strong fundamentals and celebrated growth rates in recent years, the economy lost some of its shine in 2012. The government must get over its obsession with the real and concentrate on beefing up productivity and trade, say analysts.
China hard landing could still blow up world - Société Générale
January 2013
Société Générale reveals the disfigured face of the global economy in the event of a China growth shock, given the country’s unsustainable investment rate – its all-too familiar Achilles heel.
Emerging Europe: Fitch upgrades Turkey to BBB-
December 2012
Fitch Ratings became the first of the big three rating agencies to restore Turkey to investment-grade status last month when it upgraded the sovereign by one notch to BBB-.
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Mongolia bond sets off EM bond bubble concerns
December 2012
Mongolia’s debut bond ran into trouble after a spat within the country's coalition government, underscoring politicial risks in the frontier market. The liquidity-fuelled demand for the country's bond brings to the fore the question of whether there is a bubble surfacing in emerging market debt, more generally.
Fed defends quantitative easing amid ‘currency war’ fallout
October 2012
Federal Reserve vice-chairman Janet Yellen rebuffed criticism from emerging market economies over lax US monetary policy at the IMF annual meeting in Tokyo.
Phoney currency wars – this time it’s different
October 2012
There has been tough talk from Brazil after the Federal Reserve’s decision to implement QE3, but speculation of a re-emergence of global currency wars is wide of the mark.
Euromoney's latest coverage on bond markets.
Call it what you will – currency war, competitive devaluation, currency manipulation, currency intervention – but central banks are knee-deep in the trenches as they battle to lower their exchange rates and boost their economies.