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BNDES seeking private-sector help to take a step back
January 2018
Brazilian Development Bank wants to finance more projects with a lower level of disbursements; local capital markets seen as better bet than banks to help BNDES step back.
Latin America: Fair political wind could bring ‘two years in one’ for investment banks
January 2018
2018 to outpace strong issuance volume seen last year; appetite for Brazilian risk is surging.
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Bradesco: To efficiency and beyond?
December 2017
Bigger footprint should drive revenues as well as earnings.
Itaú Unibanco: Foot on the accelerator
December 2017
Newly acquisitive Itaú's earnings have been remarkably resilient.
LatAm to pass its election year test
December 2017
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The region’s political highlight of 2017 went well.
PagSeguro’s plans put New York in the LatAm tech spotlight
December 2017
Lack of regional liquidity cited as reason for NY IPO listings; strong pipeline in Brazil being dominated by more traditional companies.
The outlier in Brazil isn’t politics
December 2017
While growth forecasts for Brazil for 2018 are turning optimistic, a few – a surprisingly small number in fact – are warning about a growing downside risk for next year: a negative hit from a persistent drought.
From growth stories to dividend plays
November 2017
The mood among bankers attending Felaban’s annual conference in November was conspicuously relaxed. Why relaxed? Well, business is good.
Brazilian banks could be entering a new credit cycle
November 2017
2017 Macro-economic recovery and falling Selic paint positive outlook; credit growth frustrating the rosy outlook.
November 2017
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Risk enters Brazilian wealth management
November 2017
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A change in the interest rate environment will require a fundamental shift in mind-set from the clients of Brazil’s private banks – are they ready for it and where should they look for returns?
Brazil pension reform: Sure, they should
November 2017
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It’s obvious that Brazil’s government needs to reform pensions and get hold of social spending – easy to say, not so easy to do.
Brazil’s banks see multiple drivers for 2018 growth
October 2017
GDP and credit growth should offset lower NII; greater efficiencies also sought to preserve strong results.
BTG Pactual feels the digital force
October 2017
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Bank says rationalization of retail branch networks will boost growth; head of its digital platform hints at wider retail banking services.
Politics mask Brazil’s economic risks
October 2017
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It seems counterintuitive, but the endless cycle of political turmoil in Brazil might be insulating the country from a crisis that is warranted by its perilous fiscal situation.
Brazil: Banrisul share sale disappoints
October 2017
Hopes for full privatization dashed; investors might still see growth opportunity.
Banco do Brasil set to outperform
September 2017
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Investors have misconceptions about the scale of its retrenchment; growth and asset quality recovery likely to increase through 2018.
BBVA tempted to sell its Chilean retail bank
September 2017
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New banking law looks set to require BBVA to add capital; deal would transform Scotiabank in key Pacific Alliance market.
Brazil improves but fragility alarms risk experts
September 2017
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The worst might be over, yet there are still notable concerns surrounding one of the world’s largest emerging markets.
Big deals set to boost Brazilian investment banks
September 2017
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Pipeline of ECM deals grows as sentiment improves; government said to be planning ‘ambitious’ privatization programme.
Brazil set to pass critical credit reform
August 2017
State bank BNDES’ benchmark rate set to be replaced; implicit subsidies have been a significant fiscal drain.
Brazil’s banks making hay in 2017 as rain forecast for 2018
August 2017
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Short-term factors driving strong improvements in earnings and ROE; revenues the issue next year as credit demand remains weak.
Latin America: Greenlees takes on Itaú’s critics
July 2017
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Itaú BBA has long been a top investment bank in Brazil. Recently, rumours of high turnover, a changing culture and low morale have been rife. But Roderick Greenlees, head of investment banking, says the bank remains an undisputed market leader.
Risks in a low inflation Brazil
July 2017
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It is no understatement to say that the country is uncharted territory. The news is all good right now. But next year’s presidential election could return it to familiar, volatile territory.
Global risk-on trumps Brazilian risk as investors eye fresh equity deals
July 2017
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Santander Brasil’s IB fees show it’s more than a retail growth story
July 2017
Bank’s IB division up to third in rankings in first half of 2017; IB head Leao says there is “still a lot more to come”.
Brazilian government to press ahead with reform of TJLP
July 2017
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Reduction of size and cost of subsidized credit key policy reform; negative impact of earmarked credit highlighted by World Bank report.
It’s not the macro in Brazilian M&A
July 2017
Sometimes we can’t see the trees for looking at the woods.
Brazil’s banks face paradox of worsening asset quality in a deleveraging corporate sector
July 2017
Renegotiated and restructured debt lengthening NPL cycle; Bradesco and Santander to benefit most from better cost of risk.
Restructuring offers growth for Moelis in Brazil
June 2017
Brazil office opened in 2014 and has won several prestigious mandates; firm argues changes to bankruptcy code would boost M&A.
UBS rebuilds in Brazil with acquisition of Consenso
June 2017
Swiss bank buys Brazil’s biggest multi-family office; wealth management industry continues to grow fast despite economic turbulence.
Latin America: Data talks big in Brazil – for now
June 2017
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The country’s biggest banks are working on the big data challenge. If successful, it could transform the industry and its performance. But quantifying the impact and differentiating between potential winners and losers is almost impossible.
When Brazilian bank holidays meet financial regulation
June 2017
What gated communities can teach us about gaming the system.
Latin America: Politics puts Brazil in a spin
June 2017
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The latest political scandal in Brazil spooked the markets, but didn’t bring them down. Why not?
Investment One seeks niche in busy Brazilian finance space
May 2017
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Bernardo Parnes opens IB and wealth management boutique; consultancy aims to differentiate by seniority of advisers.
Brazil: Bradesco BBI aims to become regional investment bank
May 2017 Miranda, head of BBI, says single country banks at a disadvantage; global trend to universal banks helping drive national and regional growth.
Was Brazil’s crash an opportunity or the end of a bull run?
May 2017
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Sharp crash in bank shares was followed by marked recovery; risk of political stagnation could lead to larger, longer-term falls in sector.
Brazil’s XP chooses a road often travelled: selling to Itaú
May 2017 Itaú buys XP to protect its market share; staggered deal offers XP a certain future away from IPO risks.
Latin America: NPLs point to credit quality recovery in Brazil
May 2017
Private banks ahead of the curve in terms of provisioning; Banco do Brasil returns to double-digit ROE.
Santander Brasil begins to win converts to its turnaround story
April 2017
Credit Suisse switches to outperform rating; Santander expected to quickly close the profitability gap with its peers.
Brazil’s bankers hope Azul is green light for more IPOs
April 2017
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Airline IPO finally takes off on fourth attempt; optimism immediately tempered by renewed political risk.
Brazil: not as boring as it looks
April 2017
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The headline news in Brazil is always dramatic, often shocking, but never dull. Unlike its financial sector, which does little to excite international interest. Could that be about to change?
Latin America: Lenders warming up to Brazilian banks
March 2017
Recent IFC deal for Banco Daycoval outperformed initial expectations; IFC sees changing role in Brazil as interest rates fall.
Brazil’s valuation recovery might have run out of steam
March 2017
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Credit Suisse books Brazilian profits and switches to Malaysia; crowded trade hints at heated valuations.
Latin America: Goldfajn plots a happy ending for Brazil interest rates
March 2017
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The new president of Brazil’s central bank has identified the large interest rate spread applied by banks on top of the base rate as an obstacle to economic growth. His plan to increase competition and reduce this ‘spread bancario’ is long overdue.
Latin America: Banco do Brasil begins to convince
March 2017
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As CEO Caffarelli targets private-sector levels of profitability, Brazil’s state-banking behemoth is aiming to improve capital and benefit from a better economy.
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Latin America: Santander Brasil focuses on its goals, not the misses
March 2017
Santander Brasil lost out to rivals Itaú and Bradesco as other foreign banks put their businesses on the block. It might not be a bad thing. The bank is the momentum story in a tough market. But just how far can it grow?
Brazil’s political risk is very much alive
March 2017
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The political class is tainted with corruption. What a time to introduce some big reforms.
Latin America: Brazil’s central bank attacks ‘spread bancario’
February 2017
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High cost of credit in the ‘free market’ segments seen as economic impediment; president of BCB committed to lower costs and greater competition.
Latin America: How BTG came through the ultimate stress test
February 2017
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When Brazilian federal police knocked on the door of André Esteves’ Rio de Janeiro home on the morning of November 25, 2015, they were not only arresting one of the country’s most prominent bankers, they were also delivering a hammer blow to his bank, BTG Pactual. There followed a stress test that would threaten the collapse of the bank. Here’s the story of how the partners forged a business model for BTG in the glare of public scrutiny.
Latin America – BTG Pactual: Esteves’ arrest shows how to run a bank
February 2017
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How many firms would survive the detention of the founder, dominant partner and largest shareholder? There is a lesson for others in that.
Private banking: Brazil’s locals consolidate and fight for offshore
February 2017
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The hoped-for flows onshore from last year’s amnesty on offshore wealth have failed to materialise, so far. Meanwhile, Citi and HSBC have sold up. So where did a 15% increase in assets under management come from?
Brazil extends successful offshore wealth amnesty
December 2016
Amnesty has been a big fiscal bonus for government in 2016; large inflows have been counterintuitively a net-negative for local AUM.
Brazil begins micro reforms in attempt to end recession
December 2016
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Regulatory reforms negative for non-bank financials; banks’ NPLs could get a boost through reform of FGTS.
BTG aims downmarket as technology reshapes Brazilian banking
December 2016
BTG Pactual launches online-only investment platform; Banco do Brasil shedding jobs as it pushes digital.
Latin America: The sucking sound of Brazilian interest rates
November 2016
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Brazil’s economy leads the world in high interest rates. It is a blessing for banks but a burden on the economy – draining resources away from both new investment and consumption. Will new credit platforms finally jolt the established banks into a competitive response where previous strategies have failed?
Banco do Brasil strives to turn a corner
November 2016
New management aims to rebuild core equity; attractive valuation if it avoids equity issuance.
Latin America: Investment bankers optimistic for upturn
November 2016
Revenues still depressed by poor ECM; DCM and M&A resilient but at low levels.
Brazil: BMG’s short-sighted asset sale to Itaú
October 2016
Sale of JV stake will boost capital ratios but adds strategic uncertainty, while the acquisition further strengthens Brazil’s largest private bank.
Brazil: Itaú acquisition raises competition concerns
October 2016
Citi exit increases concentration; lack of competition ‘causing economic damage’.
Brazil: BM&F Bovespa’s room for recovery in question
October 2016
Exchange already ‘toppish’, valuations suggest; Bovespa argues internationalisation adds differentiation.
Central Bank of Brazil fluffs its lines
October 2016
Brazil’s central bank chief has missed a great opportunity to address its uncompetitive banking sector.
Latin America: Brazilian brokers wave the offside flag
September 2016
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Since demutualization, Brazil’s stock exchange, the BM&F Bovespa, has become hugely profitable and powerful but the majority of its brokers are struggling for survival. Doubts remain as to whether their mutual interests can be realigned but there is little sympathy for the brokers.
Latin America fintech: Brazil’s digital puzzle
September 2016
New regulation in the pipeline to cover fintech companies; large banks wary of cannibalisation of revenues.
Brazil improving, but Olympian feat required to reclaim investment grade
August 2016
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A cyclical recovery is under way yet huge fiscal problems remain, and whether progress is sustained depends on structural reforms, risk experts caution.
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Latin America: Lacerda plays a grown-up game
August 2016
The downturn in Brazil does not faze Ricardo Lacerda, founding partner of local investment bank BR Partners. Advisory remains the bedrock of his business, but political instability makes him think the next five years could undermine the last 20.
Brazilian banks’ share rally to falter?
August 2016
Best global performers so far this year; Rally technical; fundamentals remain poor.
Brazil: What’s the Portuguese for backbone?
June 2016
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Brazil might develop a more mutually beneficial equities market, but history suggests it won’t.
Hopes rise for Brazilian equities
June 2016
Political risk no longer driving equity performance; privatizations on investors radar.
Brazil looks to join Argentina’s DCM party
June 2016
Petrobras opens way for strong Brazilian pipeline; Argentina sovereign praised for helping deal flow.
Brazil and Argentina: A tale of two debt stories
May 2016
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Argentina and Brazil are heading in opposite directions.
Latin America: As Brazil falls, private equity rises
May 2016
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Every cloud has a silver lining, and private equity firms are pretty good at finding them. Is that why they are now targeting crisis-hit Brazil? Have they learnt from their poor recent performance?
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Brazil: Corporate default fear drives impeachment
May 2016
Markets rally on Rousseff’s woes; corporations pressure politicians.
Brazilian issuers eye securitization funding
April 2016 Cheapest access to dollars: politics helps mask economic realities.
Brazil: Disposals help BTG Pactual pass liquidity test
April 2016
Shores up confidence; retains minority Swiss bank stake.
April 2016
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Country risk scores for many of the large emerging markets (EMs) continued to fall in the first months of the year. Risk scores have now reached levels that do not preclude another global shock if China hits the skids.
Private banking: Flight to quality boosts Itaú
February 2016
What’s a wealthy Brazilian to do faced with economic and political turmoil, scandal at one of the country’s leading private banks, and a big change to the tax law? Turn to the undisputed market leader in wealth management, it seems.
February 2016
The Central Bank of Brazil is facing a credibility struggle, making it even harder for investors to predict when country’s turnaround will come.
Euromoney Country Risk survey results 2015: China, Brazil and South Africa lead EM credit rout January 2016
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Brazil: BTG fights for survival January 2016
Esteves’ exit fails to slow outflows; oil and gas exposure in spotlight.Latin America: Ditching the left, right?
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January 2016
International investors will swiftly return to Latin America if they see clear evidence of economic progress.
LatAm capital markets: Rebound prospects look gloomy
January 2016
Brazil or Argentina need to spark revival; Latin America investment banking’s worst year since 2009.
Brazil: BNDES – extrication impossible December 2015With a struggling economy, Brazil will continue to rely heavily on its state development bank to provide long-term finance for crucial infrastructure projects, unless private-sector alternatives can be found.
Brazil seeks foreign help for infrastructure November 2015 Guarantees to aid private sector flows; BNDES scaling back but still dominant player.Brazil private sector banks: Pessimism takes root
November 2015
Toxic outlook for economy and NPLs; impact of higher NIM sparks debate.
LatAm central banks: Monetary policymakers need fiscal friends November 2015 The Brazilian real has fallen against the dollar by more than any other major world currency, exacerbating already high inflation (approaching 10%) and the Brazilian central bank has been much more active.
Brazil central bank: We thought 'good times would last forever'
October 2015
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Commodity exports overvalued the real; manufacturing went 'down the drain'.
October 2015
With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.
Brazil: Downgrade sparks fears of sell-off spiral
October 2015
IRB Brasil Re delays IPO pricing; debt markets down 52% on year.
Latin America investment banking: Fees’ big freeze
October 2015
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Investment banking fees in LatAm are on the way down and international banks face a tricky choice of whether to stick or twist.
Brazil private banking debate: Private bankers cushion the blows in Brazil
September 2015
The country’s economy is going through tough times, putting a greater onus on private bankers to look after their clients’ investments. An emphasis on overseas diversification of portfolios is crucial. However, domestic investments still take up the greater share and require careful management.
Infrastructure finance: Projecting Brazil’s future
September 2015
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The Brazilian government is pinning its hopes on infrastructure finance to boost GDP growth and help woeful productivity rates. But the source of finance and the viability of some of the proposed projects mean that an infrastructure-led recovery won’t be coming to Brazil’s rescue any time soon.
Brazil banking: Bradesco buoyant, HSBC on back foot
September 2015
Brazil deal lifts Bradesco; UK bank fights to retain Mexico.
Brazil banking: Beyond the blame game
September 2015
It is time for Brazil’s central bank to encourage some competition and shake up the cosy world of its domestic institutions.
Markets mull Brazil junk-rating impact
September 2015
Battle-ready long-term investors could pick up equity and debt on the cheap, according to research, as S&P finally cuts Brazil to junk after Euromoney Country Risk rankings.
Latin America: Average deal fees slump August 2015 The region saw 40% less issuance than in the same period last year – with the slump in Brazilian issuance to blame for lower revenues.Heightened risks threaten Brazil’s investment grade
July 2015
Latin America’s largest market and one of its hottest investment prospects only a few years ago is now rocking from a confluence of negative factors undermining creditworthiness.
Brazil: Project bond push called into question July 2015Government seeks private investors; buyers ‘not fully aware’ of the risks.
Gap in Brazil’s infrastructure projects
July 2015
Plans to involve the capital markets seem to be attracting the wrong investor – one who might not understand the risks.
Country Awards for Excellence 2015: Latin America – Brazil
July 2015
Best bank and best investment bank.
Don’t bet on Brazil’s equity markets waking soon
June 2015Brazil’s economy must absorb a lot more pain before it starts to grow again. Until then, investors will stay away, and the deals won’t come.
Latin America: Mexico leads but Brazil stirs from ECM slumber
June 2015
Demand rising, busy second half expected; Par Corretora holds key to Brazil return.
Latin America banking: Risk pendulum swings back to locals
May 2015"I think we will see the Spanish banks remain a strong foothold in the countries that they are already present and also see other foreign banks keeping strong footprints in markets like Mexico and Brazil."
Peru a safer prospect than Brazil, with Mexico and Colombia in its sights
May 2015The Andean nation was riskier than Brazil not so long ago, but has risen through the LatAm rankings and might soon become the second-safest credit in the region behind Chile.
Brazil: Cielo and Petrobras give grounds for optimism
May 2015‘Deal surge’ predicted; Goldman Sachs urges caution.
Is Bradesco in the frame for HSBC Brazil?
May 2015Global firms feel pinch; Chinese banks set to enter?Spotting the bottom in the Brazilian real
April 2015Falling real creates value; upturn predicted for 2016.Latin America: The great rotation in M&A
March 2015"If we are in Brazil, it’s for the long run. We decided a long time ago that Brazil is not an easy country, but it’s a growing country. […] You have to look beyond the circumstances that you see now."
Brazil's education still smart despite regulatory blow
March 2015Tarpon takes control of Abril for R$1.3 billion; new regulation might limit numbers of higher students.
Brazil: Petrobras will be shut out of bond markets until 2016
March 2015Needs credibility before returning; wants to avoid punitive pricing.
Brazil's local capital markets: Blame it on Brasilia
March 2015Brazil has all the ingredients for successful local markets, but it keeps failing to deliver.
LatAm bond markets: Brazil’s local markets brace to take the strain
March 2015The troubles at Petrobras have hurt all of Brazil’s borrowers but bankers in the country think the worst is now over and that the bad news has been priced in. The proof will come when issuers return to the markets, but who wants to go first – and can the local markets produce the goods?Private banking in Latin America: Brazil reverts to type
February 2015The private banking industry in Latin America had a difficult 12 months as wealth creation slowed throughout the region. The picture for the year ahead looks brighter for some countries, but Brazil remains the dominant market and its prospects are still murky.DCM: Mexico fills Brazil void in international markets
February 2015Sovereign reopens market; Petrobras saga stymies Brazil. Heron serves up irresistible dish to Bradesco
February 2015Brazilian bank Bradesco opens its London office on February 9.
The year of energy-induced recession in Brazil?
January 2015Rationing increasingly possible; Stagnant economy slowed consumption.Petrobras shuts Brazil out of international markets
January 2015Corruption scandal stymies bond issues; lack of supply might set stage for others.2014: a year in data – Brics
January 2015Brics hit the economic wall.Brazil’s reality check for reviving the economy
December 2014Brazil has a long and painful struggle ahead to revive its economy. Denial and complacency will not help that process.
Brazil: Bankers rueful over Rousseff
December 2014Brazil’s banking industry exclaimed loudly that another four years of Dilma Rousseff would be a disaster for the country. Now that she has been re-elected, have the bankers changed their minds?
Brazil’s banks immune to struggling economy
December 2014Strong results across the sector; banking system ‘a source of strength’.
LatAm: Rising rates will limit IPO activity
December 2014Rising rates deter equity investors; Brazil no longer driving volumes.
ECR: Which way next for Brazil?
November 2014Experts taking part in Euromoney’s country-risk survey have cast doubt on Brazil as an investment destination in recent years.
Brazilian real troubles far from over
October 2014The decline of the Brazilian real to a nine-year low this week seemed to mark a nadir for a currency buffeted by economic and political concerns. Analysts say, though, that things could get worse before they get better.
Brazil and Mexico follow divergent long-term risk trends
October 2014Investors should take note: LatAm’s big two have been offering contrasting portfolio options for some time. This year is no exception.
Brazil faces tough future, say economists
October 2014Vital reforms unlikely; next president will inherit inflation headache.
Brazil elections: Don’t bank on Marina
September 2014Brazil’s business community wants ‘anyone but Dilma’ as its next president. But Marina Silva will not be able to deliver everything that business, or the country, needs.Brics bank: requiem for a dreamSeptember 2014Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.
Brazil private banking debate: Brazil’s problems prompt safety-first approachSeptember 2014
Private banking clients in Brazil face challenging times, bankers concede. The economy is under pressure and the country could yet suffer stagflation. Furthermore, an unpredictable presidential race leaves markets in limbo. However, bankers are confident their well-educated client base will not over-react, and instead maintain their long-term strategies.Brazilian public banks: Short-term gain, long-term pain?September 2014
Dilma Rousseff has told Brazil’s public banks to boost the country’s flagging consumption until the elections with double-digit loan growth. Weakening credit quality and capital ratios are worrying analysts.Ferraz defends BNDES roleSeptember 2014
It has become normal in Brazil for private-sector banks to express frustration with the scale and cost of BNDES’ presence in financing corporate Brazil. However, given the power of the bank to engage with private-sector financial institutions (either through granting debt lines that are passed through the private banks, or from holding equity stakes in companies that the banks see as clients or potential clients), these criticisms are made off-the-record.Economic growth: Two-speed Latin AmericaSeptember 2014
Mexico’s energy reforms should kick-start growth in its lacklustre economy while Brazil appears to have no strategic planning in place.Brazil: Energy options running drySeptember 2014
Election campaign delays rationing; ‘pray for rain’ say analysts.Brazil: Private banks predict end to short-term, tax-free investingSeptember 2014
Asset allocation hangs on election result; closing the instrument is good news for private banks.Markets pine for Brazil election game-changerSeptember 2014
The Brazilian real has been rising in recent weeks on hopes opposition candidate Marina Silva will beat president Dilma Rousseff in a run-off election in October. With the Brazilian economy faltering and the election outcome still on a knife edge, the real’s outlook – and the country’s macro framework, more generally – remains unclear.Brazil: Local bonds rally on suppressed FX volatility
August 2014High relative rates draw investors; elections weigh on rally.
Brazil: Caixa makes a hybrid first
August 2014Deal sells at par; incentive to call after five years.Brazil: Investors to ‘return’ shares from Biosev’s IPO
July 2014Louis Dreyfus to repurchase 90% of deal; firm commitment IPOs under question.Energy prices offer investment plays in Brazil
June 2014Short-term gains for some energy firms and industrials; longer-term energy strategy review needed.
Brazil’s banks face new portability rules
June 2014Will make loan transfers less attractive for banks; technology a main driver of competition.
Brazil: Rousseff’s water torture
June 2014A lack of rain to fill the dams that power Brazil is becoming a potential crisis. But as experts call for action to protect dwindling reservoirs the government refuses to act, and running the hydrology risk is becoming increasingly dangerous for it.
Markets rally on Brazil’s downgrade
April 2014Markets responded positively to the downgrade of Brazil by Standard & Poor’s. On March 25, the day after the announcement from the rating agency, the Ibovespa climbed and the real gained on the dollar.
Economic policy: Investors try to get a sense of Brazil in 2015
March 2014
Post-election policies still hard to predict; fiscal discipline key to investments.
Latin America: Equity dislocation as a fixed-income driver
March 2014
The fundamental dislocation of the region’s equity markets may actually drive DCM issuance in the coming year as a much-stalled pipeline of equity deals turns to M&A in frustration – and DCM deals will be printed to finance this predicted wave.
Ice grips LatAm's equity markets
March 2014
The data is misleading, say analysts; the region’s markets are fundamentally fine. Institutional investors are sticking around, but local companies are finding that they need a convincing story to attract international money.
Latin American capital markets: Competition for HSBC as it builds in equities
March 2014
Itaú strengthens position outside Brazil; equity lull a good time for hiring, says HSBC.
Investment risk: What the fragile five also share
March 2014
Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have more in common than macroeconomic numbers.
Making sense of the fragile-five category of emerging-market laggards
February 2014
Although market players discern substantial differences between the fragile-five economies – notably in their current-account profiles – they remain, as a group, especially vulnerable to domestic and international market shocks, says bearish analysts.
Latin America offers pockets of resilience to EM risk aversion
February 2014
ECR experts’ faith in Chile, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay is rewarded as stronger economies linked to fewer political problems survive the rout, but Brazil slides along with Argentina and Venezuela.
Private banking: The wealthy look abroad as Brazil’s brilliant future dims
February 2014
In the past year the country’s private bank clients have been persuaded of the need to diversify into global investments – not as a panic measure in a time of crisis but as a regular aspect of their allocations.
Brazil: Private banking feels the Batista effect
February 2014
With OGX’s debt issued internationally, there was reportedly little impact from the company’s bond default and October 2013 collapse into bankruptcy on the fixed-income portfolios of Brazil’s private banking clients – fixed income being the largest asset allocation among the vast majority of Brazil’s rich.
LatAm DCM: Frequent issuers eye euro arbitrage
February 2014
Petrobras deal shows swap advantage over dollars; room for more quality issuers but a limited window.
Brazil to reap bumper agribusiness harvest
January 2014
The development of the cerrado into arable land will benefit Brazil far more than its oil discoveries.
Land rush on Brazil’s frontier
January 2014
Transport costs have made the country’s agriculture industry uncompetitive. But new infrastructure projects should transform the opportunities some have seen in land values.
Capital flows: Brazil’s investors add outbound capital dynamic
January 2014
Capital inflow down; Brazilian investor outflow up; increasing cooperation between Brazilian and foreign asset managers.Brazil tries to shrug off a poor run in equities
January 2014
Disappointing end-2013 performance; McKinsey analysis predicts long-term issuance growth.
Is Brazil as risky as CDS prices suggest?
December 2013
Brazil is a riskier portfolio option than Mexico, according to live data from Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey, but the data suggest the risk differential is smaller than is currently priced into the credit default swap market.Brazil’s cup is half full
December 2013
There is too much bearish sentiment towards Brazil - investors shouldn't forget the long-term trends and the fundamental strengths of the economy.Brazil builds its way to growth
December 2013
BNDES to spend $250.8 billion 2013-16; also seeks to encourage private capital inputs.Brazilian equities: The OGX effect
If Petrobras is considering an equity transaction in 2014, the implosion of Eike Batista’s OGX group this year won’t be helpful for investors’ perceptions of the risk of Brazil’s oil exploration and production industry.Petrobras walks the debt/capital tightrope
December 2013
When Brazil’s national oil and gas champion raised $70 billion from a capital increase in 2010, it was trumpeted as a once-in-a-decade event. But as Petrobras nears its self-imposed leverage thresholds, its capital position looks compromised. A sharp cut to its rating or a return to the equity markets looks likely. So why is Brazil’s banking community so scared to discuss it?
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Junk status not on the cards for Brazil, say ECR experts
November 2013
Speculation concerning possible junk status for Brazil might be wide of the mark, according to data from Euromoney Country Risk.
Cash management in Brazil: Local knowledge bears fruit
October 2013
Local banks like to see themselves as uniquely suited to offering cash management services to Brazilian companies. But the global banks are also getting up to speed on idiosyncratic client requirements and local regulation.
Brazil’s real: Playing into speculators’ hands
October 2013
Brazil’s FX swap intervention is arming speculators for further attacks on the real.Private equity: Cooling Brazil offers PE opportunities
October 2013
Big increase in regional private equity activity; particularly attractive metrics in Brazil.
Brazil's economic growth: A test of credibility
September 2013
Despite Roussef’s protestations, only structural reform will put Brazil back on a growth path. CRT breaks ground for Brazil infrastructure
September 2013
It was second time lucky for the first Brazilian toll-road financing to come to the market without the support of BNDES. The initial attempt ended in confusion. A year later, the revived deal under new leadership faced severe headwinds.
CRT: Building blocks of Brazil’s first project finance bond
September 2013
CRT was a natural candidate to open the project finance bond market in Brazil because the sponsors of Rodovias do Tietê are Atlantia Bertin Concessões (a 50/50 joint venture of Atlantia and Bertin), and Ascendi (a 60/40 joint venture of Mota-Engil and Banco Espírito Santo). They have experience of these structures in Europe.
Brazil markets will instigate policy change – BlackRock
September 2013
BlackRock’s Gerardo Rodriguez Regordosa says he believes that the markets are punishing Brazil for policy mistakes and that this is likely to lead to a shift in economic policy by the government of Latin America’s biggest economy.
Brazil: BNDES strategy confusion
September 2013
The level of commitment of Brazilian development bank BNDES to support new capital market structures to finance infrastructure projects has been thrown into doubt by the bank’s recent strategy.
Brazil oil and gas sector seeks to shake off Batista break-up
September 2013
Capital-hungry borrowers seeking to plug the huge infrastructure deficit in Latin America’s largest economy through international capital markets are hoping Eike Batista’s OGX group will avoid default.
Devil is in the detail in EM currencies
September 2013
Among EM currencies, Morgan Stanley’s strategists named the real, South Africa’s rand, India’s rupee, rupiah and lira the “fragile five”. Still, investors should beware tarring all five with the same brush, some analysts say.
Brazil risks becoming latest emerging-market victim of stagflation as economy falters
September 2013
Brazil’s recovery is being cut off at the knees by a set of economic challenges that have all come home to roost – from a depreciating currency and rising current-account deficit to structural problems, including an overdependence on credit-fuelled consumption.
Brazil private banking debate: Brazil’s private banks adapt to a changing economy
August 2013
Wealthy Brazilians’ traditional dependence on positive real interest rates for investment returns has been undermined. Euromoney’s roundtable of private bankers discusses how wealth managers are developing new investment opportunities for their clients and how those clients are responding.
Debt market for Brazilian oil and gas thaws, but outlook icy
August 2103
Brazilian capital markets are showing signs of life again after a particularly torrid summer as industrial conglomerate Odebrecht priced a $1.7 billion nine-year bond. But investor wariness towards Latin America’s largest economy persists.
IPO guarantees threaten Brazil market, say bankers
August 2013
Recent Brazilian IPOs have incorporated novel support structures in an attempt to generate demand, but some ECM bankers warn that the movement away from traditional bookbuilding might damage, rather than help, the troubled primary issuance market.
Brazil: Corporate slowdown puts focus on insolvency law
August 2013
The slowdown in the growth of the Brazilian economy after the recent big expansion in corporate issuance into the international and domestic capital markets has put the focus on the efficacy of Brazil’s relatively recent (2005) insolvency law.
Latin America: Bankers caught in valuation divide
August 2013
Brazil is the biggest culprit: traditionally the largest M&A market in Latin America, the aggregate deal value of $30.7 billion in the first half of 2012 fell to $19 billion in the first half of this year.
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July 2013
Bradesco Asset Management (Bram) has established a US subsidiary and has begun to build relationships with distribution managers in the US and Canada to sell Bram’s proprietary funds to north American institutional investors.
Latin American Awards for Excellence 2013: Brazil
July 2013
Brazilian retail banks have long enjoyed a large and profitable domestic market. But the government’s attempt to lower interest rates, first with dramatic cuts to the base rate and then by pressuring the state banks to expand credit, has changed the tone in the market.
Brazil: The positives of protests
July 2013
Bears thrive on accelerating inflation, weak growth and a falling real. But a positive, reforming response to protests might transform sentiment in Brazil.
Brazil worst performer in Latin America
July 2013
The largest South American economy is considered the region’s most vulnerable by economists in June's ECR risk survey, amid an EM bond and equity sell-off.
Brazil risk premium awakens for investors
June 2013
A wave of protests over a wide range of political and economic grievances has rocked Brazil, despite the fruits of its decade-long commodity-driven growth having been more evenly shared than other producers. The macroeconomic consequences could be more severe than markets expect, as it heaps on the risk of fiscal laxity and reduces prospects for structural reform, say analysts.
Brazil: Analysts dispel rumours of downgrade
June 2013
The decision by Standard and Poor’s (S&P) to lower Brazil’s BBB credit outlook to negative sends a warning signal to the government but should not materialise in a downgrade, claim analysts.
Tax removal a bullish game-changer for Brazilian real
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June 2013
The Brazilian real looks set to escape the sell-off sweeping across emerging market (EM) currencies after the country’s government scrapped the tax on overseas investments in domestic bonds.
Wealth management: UBS seeks Brazilian growth through family offices
June 2013
As competition in a fast-growing Brazilian private banking market intensifies between established players, Edinardo Figueiredo, new head of wealth management at UBS Brasil, sees potential for growth in consolidating the fragmented family offices that provide wealth-management services to groups of wealthy individuals.
Equity capital markets: BB Seguridade shows the risk in Brazil
June 2013
Banco do Brasil’s BB Seguridade IPO last month raised R$11.48 billion ($5.7 billion), making it the largest IPO in Latin America since Santander’s IPO of its Brazilian bank in October 2009. It was also another high-water mark for the local banks in the continuation of their dominance of Brazilian equity mandates.
Brazil’s rebound remains uncertain
May 2013
After a poor 2012, the central bank forecast growth of 4% for 2013; it has already cut this to 3.1%. International investors are going elsewhere in the region. With domestic investment falling, Brazil will do well even to hit that target.
Brazil: Shady practices won’t mitigate the heat of inflation
May 2013
With Brazilian inflation now above the target rate, in mid-April the central bank announced a rise in interest rates for the first time since July 2011.
Latin America: Brazil IPOs slowly building momentum
May 2013
Brazil’s IPO market is slowly building momentum and some equity bankers expect the second half of the year to produce a large volume of deals.
Brazil: Cool reception for public-private alliance
May 2013
The Brazilian government and development bank BNDES’s joint effort to boost infrastructure projects as a way to increase investment, grow GDP and remove bottlenecks in the economy is receiving a cautious welcome from the private sector.
Brazil: Inflation concerns and lax monetary policy dampen economic allure
April 2013
Brazil’s position in the ECR global rankings remains unchanged this quarter as analysts digest the impact of policy-rate hikes on economic growth.
Brazil urged to return to its trinity
April 2013
In what could be interpreted as an admission that Brazil needs to improve its reputation with international investors the deputy governor of the central bank, Luiz Awazu Pereira da Silva, has publicly acknowledged that the use of capital controls to lower the value of the real has caused greater collateral damage to the economy than had been foreseen.
Brazil: Time for a religious revival
April 2013
Poor Brazil. First the new pope is Argentine and then it is accused of blasphemy – of going against the holy trinity of economic policy (floating exchange rates, inflation targeting and fiscal restraint) that was credited with producing the Brazilian economic miracle of the past couple of decades.
Indian summer for LatAm debt markets?
March 2013
The thorniest and hardest to predict local market in the region is also potentially the biggest and most important: Brazil.
Brazilian private banking: Locals versus internationals
February 2013
As Brazil’s private banking market becomes more like the rest of the world, with greater product diversity and sophistication, the international banks sense an opportunity to take the competition to the locals. In recent years the Brazilians have used their presence and their nationality to win market share.
Private banking survey 2013: Brazil’s wealthy say goodbye to risk-free investment
February 2013
The collapse in interest rates means that rich Brazilians will have to grapple with riskier investments offering less liquidity if they are to maintain investment returns. Private bankers are up for the challenge of providing them.
Hopes for equilibrium in Brazil’s IPO market
February 2013
Linx, a provider of software to the retail market, is likely to be the first company to try to launch an IPO in Brazil in 2013. The deal will be eagerly watched by all equity market participants.
Investors fall back in love with emerging market equities
February 2013
Investors are looking to Brazil for returns. Low commodity prices and a sharp drop in the value of the real hit the Bovespa index hard in 2012, but many now see better times ahead.
Food and agriculture finance: Brazilian agro-investments set to rise
January 2013
Long-term trends in demand and supply for the world’s food resources are leading to growing interest in Brazilian agriculture as an asset class.
Beyond inflation – Brazilian style
January 2013
Capital controls look as likely as inflation targeting in upcoming monetary policy.
Brazil economy: is the party over?
January 2013
Despite the country’s strong fundamentals and celebrated growth rates in recent years, the economy lost some of its shine in 2012. The government must get over its obsession with the real and concentrate on beefing up productivity and trade, say analysts.