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Euromoney sits down with a top executive of one of the leading emerging market banks. Africa is on his mind. “Did you know,” he asks, “that at the start of this decade something like 50% of trade finance across Africa was provided by international banks? Guess how much they provide today.”
Probably a lot less than 50%, ventures Euromoney. “It’s essentially zero,” he says. “Partly that’s down to regulatory capital treatment of trade finance assets and a hangover from the pull back of banks to home markets that followed the financial crisis. But, given the attractions of Africa in a low-growth world, what that tells me is that the era of global expansion among the world’s leading banks is over. It’s finished, certainly for the rest of my lifetime.”
Two days later, on the other side of the Atlantic, Euromoney sits down with the chief executive of a large, locally focused national champion bank and hears much the same message. “When you see even a bank like HSBC announcing its retreat from markets with such attractive demographics as Turkey and Brazil, you have to ask what on earth is going on.
