 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
|||
 |
 |
 |
 |
Latest features, news and opinion
Also see US dollar: special focus
Trade wars, interest rates, stocks and politics top ADB menu
March 2019
There is no shortage of problems to tackle when bankers, economists and investors gather at the Asian Development Bank meetings in early May.
Sideways: Trump makes banks look good – for now
February 2019
President Donald Trump has pulled off the almost impossible task of making America’s banks look good, if not exactly great, again.
ICBC: Braced for the trade war
January 2019
Numbers are solid and money is flowing into the system, but ICBC must avoid the temptation to drift from its conservative approach to risk.
Central banks may have to slow balance sheet reduction to stem market falls
January 2019
Collapsing equity and credit markets have little to do with a coming recession, but show a high and worrying correlation to the disappearance of the central bank bid.
Sideways: The Fed – I’m a central banker... get me out of here!
January 2019
As Mario Draghi begins his victory lap before stepping down as president of the ECB in October 2019 and his colleagues get down to the serious business of competing for the succession, they will no doubt give thanks that they do not face trial by Twitter in the same way as Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell.
The alternative awards of the year 2018
December 2018
The golden mirror award for Narcissism self-knowledge Donald Trump You’ve got to blow your own trumpet. No one else will. You can learn a lot from the president of the US on this and so much else.
Banking: How long can Iran hold?
December 2018
The Trump administration has begun the process of ostracizing Iranian finance. Bankers there are hanging on to some rare good news, but how long will it be till they are back to square one?
Asiamoney Brokers Poll 2018: Asia finds silver lining in US-China trade spat
December 2018
Top-rated strategists – as ranked by the Asiamoney Brokers Poll – see opportunities for smaller Asian economies to lure manufacturers away from China during the latest dispute.
Asia is sanguine about global shocks
October 2018
Why is nobody in Asia worrying about trade wars and rate hikes?
Outlook darkens for the Gulf’s competing powers
September 2018
In early 2016, the Middle East’s two largest countries looked set to become the world’s most vibrant frontier markets. Two years on, many bankers doubt that either Iran or Saudi Arabia can live up to these expectations.
 |
Kim-Trump accreditation: A hot ticket to nowhere
July 2018
Euromoney was an accredited reporter at the Trump-Kim North Korea-US summit in Singapore in June.
Iran nuclear deal: Can JCPOA live on?
July 2018
Europe may not be enough after Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal.
Sideways: Wall Street’s Washington takeover
June 2018
The coming move towards a Volcker Rule 2.0 that relaxes monitoring of proprietary risk taking by bank dealing desks has been portrayed as a result of president Donald Trump’s administration finally placing its preferred officials in key regulatory positions.
The game of chess at the heart of China-US M&A
May 2018
The only assets CFIUS will allow the Chinese to buy are the ones China doesn’t want and won’t allow. What next?
Sideways: The ties between Wall Street, regulators and White House
May 2018
If the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) does decide to weigh in on the issue of whether or not Blackstone’s trading in Hovnanian debt and default swaps constitutes market manipulation, it will revive questions about SEC chairman Jay Clayton’s ties to Goldman Sachs.
 |
Broadcom blow threatens to burst the M&A bubble
April 2018
It has been the busiest first quarter ever for M&A announcements. Deal makers are becoming exuberant amid strong growth synchronized across the developed markets. But rising protectionism in the biggest M&A market of all could yet turn a banner year into one to forget. Should investment bankers fear the new Trump effect?
Not the last thing: Where have all the bank leaders gone?
April 2018
The cat is out of the bag: the public is aware that if you want to stop something, you have to stop the financing. Right now in the US, that something is guns.
Banks and Iran: Tillerson’s firing muddies the waters even more for investment
March 2018
Donald Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson on Tuesday, the latest sign of his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal, an international agreement that has allowed the country’s banks partial re-entry into global finance after years of sanction-fuelled isolation.
Nine things Gary Cohn might do after the White House
March 2018
We review the options...
Investment: Twisting Mexican risk
March 2018
Many investors are misreading the risks in Mexico.
US tax changes prompt cash management overhaul
January 2018
Changes to the US corporate tax code are aimed at driving more onshore investment. For treasurers, this will mean reassessing their current global cash management structures.
Lloyd Blankfein is Twitter’s anti-Trump
November 2017
The Goldman Sachs chief shows how less can be much, much more.
Alternative awards of the year 2017
December 2017
The alternative bank of the year: Deutsche Bank
|
Deutsche continued to lend money to Trump after most US banks decided that his credit was poor in the wake of a series of bankruptcies. It also serves as his private banker.
The conservation conversation after Bears Ears
December 2017
|
Conservation took a blow when US president Donald Trump announced the reduction in the size of the Bears Ears National Monument in Utah by two million acres, potentially opening the land up to oil and gas extraction, logging and other commercial activities. It is the largest rollback of federal land protection in the nation’s history and it may not be the last under this administration.
Lloyd Blankfein is Twitter’s anti-Trump
November 2017
The Goldman Sachs chief shows how less can be much, much more.
Banking: Harmonization is the watchword in Washington
November 2017
 |
US tax reform remained high on the agenda for delegates at this year’s IIF meetings, all the more so because it had been considered a priority of the Trump administration.
Markets brace for nomination of next Fed chair
October 2017
 |
The lead candidate, Fed insider Jerome Powell, promises continuity and investors would no doubt be relieved to see him step up, but they might swoon if Trump nominates persistent Fed critic John Taylor.
Trump is honoured by rising stock prices
October 2017
 |
I don’t know why at first, but watching Donald Trump tell Fox News in October that because the value of the US stock market has risen by $5.2 trillion since he became president that “maybe in a sense, we are reducing the debt” makes me feel warm inside.
October 2017
 |
Banks are hopeful that the Trump administration might finally get something done.
Mexican M&A shrugs off the Trump slump
September 2017
 |
The surprise victory of Donald Trump in last year’s US election stopped Mexican M&A in its tracks, but as the stock market and the peso started recover in 2017, so too did Mexican corporate appetite for acquisitions, not least in the US.
US banking: Back to fast and loose
May 2017
The first quarter of Donald Trump’s presidency has already been a boon for banks, according to the Banking Compliance Index (BCI).
Macaskill on markets: Trump’s top banks set off Volcker rule alarms
May 2017
|
Goldman Sachs badly underperformed other US banks in first-quarter fixed income results, setting off a frenzy of speculation about trading positions that could have led to the disappointment.
Regulation: The Fed means business on the Volcker rule
May 2017
|
The central bank found a way to enforce the rule just before lawmakers attempt to dismantle it.
Regulation: Volcker rules don’t apply
May 2017
 |
On April 21, Donald Trump directed his treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, to begin the administration’s long anticipated attack on the Orderly Liquidation Authority, created as part of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act to ensure the smooth management of US banks at risk of failure.
Trump’s Dodd-Frank haircut could be little more than a trim
April 2017
Changes to US banking regulation will focus on specific targets rather than wholesale legislative reform.
Regulation: Trump’s misguided motives
March 2017
 |
While the imagery around the Trump presidency looks awful, it may obscure some good intentions – but what stops us cheerleading these efforts is the worry where they spring from.
Bond market: Still too early to call the bull run done
March 2017
 |
For a man who has made his living erecting huge buildings, Trump seems to know little about the costs of big infrastructure projects.
Latin America: Mexico’s banks brace for Trump stress test
March 2017
 |
The country’s bankers are confident they can overcome any fall-out from their northern neighbour’s new regime. But falling consumer confidence is adding to pressure on the nation’s economy.
Sideways: Trump cronies need GSE intervention now
March 2017
 |
A US federal appeals court ruling on February 21 effectively ended a legal attempt by a group of hedge funds to stop the government from collecting billions of dollars of profits made by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in recent years.
Trump escalates era of regulatory competition
February 2017
 |
There’s plenty wrong with post-crisis US bank regulation, but as the new US administration looks to roll back Dodd-Frank, its protectionist instincts might start a global race to the regulatory bottom.
Macaskill on markets: Market share and marketing hype in the Trump era
February 2017
 |
The rally in bank stocks seen after Donald Trump’s election victory had stalled by the time of his inauguration as president on January 20. Fourth-quarter results from US banks were also announced in January, giving bank heads a chance to pitch their prospects relative to competitors.
Trump’s tax holiday proposal likely to see dollar surge, says Nomura
February 2017
 |
One of the US president’s oft-repeated election promises was a tax holiday to encourage US corporations to bring assets held abroad back onshore – if he delivers, the dollar is likely to strengthen considerably against the currencies in which those assets are held, says Nomura.
How Trump’s tax plans could hit DCM
January 2017
 |
A booming start to bond issuance in 2017 is threatened on two related fronts.
Against the tide: The impact of Trumpism
January 2017
 |
Globalization and alliances are at risk.
What’s behind Trump’s enthusiasm for GSE reform?
January 2017
 |
Reprivatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is high on the agenda of the new Trump administration – its close ties to the hedge funds that were hit by their conservatorship and subsequent cash sweep could explain why, and is just one example of the murky incentives that have followed Donald Trump into the White House.
Middle East: Iran’s banks struggle with expectations
January 2017
 |
Banks in Iran have made progress since the signing of the nuclear deal, yet many obstacles to doing business internationally remain; for every step forward, there seems to be one back.
January 2017
 |
Country risk scores continued to plunge in Q4 2016, prompted by uncertainty over Italy’s political and banking sector problems, and the outlook for global trade, with the rise of populism emanating from Brexit, Donald Trump’s election victory and prospective elections across Europe coming into view this year.
Departing CFTC chair warns against repeal of financial regulation
January 2017
As he steps down from the CFTC on inauguration day, Timothy Massad warns the new administration that wholesale repeal of post-crisis financial regulation would be a big mistake.
Trade Finance Survey 2017: Tough times in trade finance
January 2017
 |
Donald Trump’s election victory owed much to his promise to tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Trans Pacific Partnership.
|
Goldman Sachs: Gary Cohn has left the building
January 2017
Gary Cohn, president and COO of Goldman Sachs, was poised to join president-elect Trump’s new administration at the end of last year, having been appointed director of the National Economic Council.
Bond markets: Two cheers for rising rates
December 2016
|
Bond market losses that began in November with the sharp rise of inflation expectations for Donald Trump’s coming presidency continued towards the end of the year.
|
21st-century Keynesianism? Get real
December 2016
UK and US economic policy has changed tone since last year’s electoral rebellions. Markets should jump at the chance to buy into higher-yielding real assets, but politicians will struggle to make reality match their rhetoric on infrastructure investment.
Bond market shoots first, asks questions later
December 2016
 |
The election of Donald Trump prompted a vicious sell-off in global bonds. Investors face the new year with warnings over volatility and inflation ringing in their ears. Will it be as bad as they think?
 |
FX: Fed indicates steeper path for US rate rises in 2017
December 2016
The mood of uncertainty is likely to prevail until there is more clarity over US president-elect Donald Trump’s plans for fiscal policy. It is anyone’s guess whether that will be the case by the time of the FOMC’s March meeting.
Macaskill on markets: Making Markets Great Again in 2017
December 2016
 |
Jon 'Mystic Mac' Macaskill takes a look at the year ahead in banking and trading.
Iran: Nothing cements treaties like money
December 2016
Commerce could reverse Trump’s vow to dismantle the Iran nuclear deal.
Japan: The surprise US election winner
December 2016
Japanese bank stocks have shot up in the wake of the US election result. The reasons have to do with shifting sands in bank regulation.
Inside investment: Debt – status quo anti
December 2016
Being awake at 4am is not usual for me. But when the US networks declared the state of Pennsylvania for Donald J Trump, the call of bed was finally too strong. It was over.
Against the tide: Trumping globalization
December 2016
|
The rise of populism in general, and Trumpism in particular, brings severe geopolitical and economic risks and could have a disastrous impact on growth and productivity.
December 2016
Global Aggregate index yield jumps by 25bp in 11 days; $8.2 billion leaves US bond funds in one week.
Iran’s bankers wait for Trump’s next move
December 2016
 |
Immediately after Donald Trump’s election victory, Euromoney visited Tehran to gauge the reaction of one group likely to be affected more than most – Iran’s banking community. Throughout his campaign Trump threatened to tear up the nuclear agreement that has allowed Iran to take its first tentative steps towards international rehabilitation. But bankers in Tehran are determined to hold on to their hard-won gains.
Macaskill on markets: Bank trading desks set to win bigly under Trump
November 2016
 |
Bank stocks rallied after Trump’s victory in the US election on hopes that higher trading revenue will outweigh potential disruption to global trade. A second act for traders now beckons.
Sideways: Trump’s tangled ties to Wall Street
December 2016
 |
Donald Trump vilified Wall Street during his presidential campaign in stump speeches and an advert that featured an image of Goldman Sachs CEO and chairman Lloyd Blankfein as a symbol of the “corrupt machine” that needed to be overthrown.
Trump and Friends: The one with Ross as commerce secretary
November 2016
 |
Investor Wilbur Ross has always had an eye for a deal, but is he the right choice for an economy that is embracing new technology faster than any other?
Country risk expert insight: Uncertainty permeates views on Mexico after Trump victory
November 2016
 |
Mexico has climbed two positions in Euromoney’s latest quarter results, ranking 37th out of 186 monitored countries, but the new US presidency has analysts worried.
FX: China ponders implications for renminbi of Trump victory
November 2016
 |
The US president-elect has talked tough on China, but he could be good news for China’s economy and its currency.
Behavioural finance: You can’t model Trump
November 2016
 |
Much of what counts as the modern study of economics consists merely of advanced mathematical modelling of financial markets, and the election of Donald Trump now renders it mostly worthless.
Trump victory sends markets haywire, extending the rise in country risk
November 2016
 |
Investor risk has been rising this year with fears over Brexit, China, the oil price slump, eurozone debts and global conflict weighing heavily on portfolio decision-making. The shock impact of the Republican victory has made the picture even murkier and sent assets into a tailspin.
Trump good for US equities, bad for bonds
November 2016
 |
Markets might have sold off on Trump’s win but this is far from anyone’s definition of panic.
FX versus Trump: Too calm for comfort?
November 2016
 |
Better hedging seems to have enabled the FX market to shrug off concerns over Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections, with some strong moves in Asian trading giving way to more restraint when European markets opened.
Latin America: Mexico to bear the brunt of Trump
November 2016
 |
Regional FX volatility and capital outflows likely to hit LatAm; biggest risk comes from protectionism policies in the medium term.
Macaskill on markets: Trading a Trump upset
September 2016
 |
Unlike the contrarian investors who would welcome some creative disruption to market certainties, most bankers seem to fear the turmoil that could well follow an election victory for Donald Trump.
Mexico’s investor risk spikes as the US elections approach
August 2016
 |
Uncertainty is increasing for peso assets as the fight for the White House heats up. Even a victory for Hillary Clinton comes with reservations attached, demonstrating how it is not just the possibility of Donald Trump winning that is ringing alarm bells.