Cold Turkey

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Cold Turkey

Too far, too fast?


Turkish banks are self-confessed addicts of the short-dollar position. They borrow dollars, change them into Turkish lira, and buy government bonds that currently yield 108%. Unless the lira plummets against the dollar, and the central bank makes sure that it doesn't, the banks make a huge margin - so huge that it would be insulting to their shareholders not to play this game.

Once or twice the banks have been caught, for example when the lira devalued 23% in 1994. But in general they're ahead. What's more, since the 1994 crisis, when three banks folded, all Turkish bank deposits have been guaranteed by the state.

But Turkish banks have been lucky, because Turkey is a member of the OECD. According to the Basel committee's 1988 accord, its sovereign risk weighting is zero, and the risk weighting of its banks is 20%. Turkish banks holding their own government's debt need hold no capital against it. Banks lending to Turkish banks need put only 1.6% of capital against the loan, rather than the full Basel ratio of 8%. If they lend short-term, or in 364-day chunks on a rollover basis, they need put up no capital at all, as far as the supervisors are concerned.


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