The ECB president is striving to stave off deflation in the eurozone yet Germany will not countenance full quantitative easing. Something must give.

The big happening in the next 12 months will be the repricing of global capital. It will impact the price of every currency and asset. It’s a complex and exciting story.

Key energy suppliers are increasingly politically unstable and Europe faces a rise in prices, even though demand is falling.

ECB president Mario Draghi has resisted using his quantitative easing bazooka up to now. However, with inflation expectations already moving lower, he will have to fire it before the year is out.

There is no time to waste for intervention to overcome persistently low inflation in the eurozone.

The ECB view that eurozone disinflation is slowly reversing is unconvincing. QE might be the only strategy left, although it is not risk free

The crisis in Crimea should give the west pause for thought in its relations with eastern European states and with Russia.

The EU elections are likely to deliver big gains for populist parties of the left and right, namely those opposed to the European project and/or further integration.

A more optimistic picture of the eurozone economy is clouded by deflationary pressures, which are especially perilous in Greece. There is no easy fix, but a cheaper euro would help.

US claims that Germany’s external surpluses are hindering global recovery are inaccurate and unjustified

The debt crisis is not over. A renewed bout will spring from banks in the EU periphery.

Germany will dig in its heels about structures that might put it in a minority in decision-making and might expose its taxpayers to unwanted bailouts.

The Fed’s U-turn on tapering and the likely shakiness of any coalition Merkel builds in Germany both add uncertainty to investor sentiment.

Despite recent positive GDP figures, there is still depressed consumer demand and tight credit in large parts of the single-currency area.

Dovish forward guidance from the European Central Bank has been followed by a similar approach from the Bank of England.

The immediate actions of key financial strategists have a direct impact on the markets. But what of the trends that are beyond these leaders’ control?

There is just about enough global growth activity to sustain growth-dependent assets. But stagnating Europe remains the weak link that could disrupt peaceful progress.

The Cyprus solution is inadequate as well as sending the wrong messages on depositors’ risks and free capital flows. Then there’s Slovenia... and Italy.

In the ledger of economic recovery, reasons to be optimistic are neatly balanced by reasons to be pessimistic.

The mini-deal reached to avert the US fiscal cliff offers no solution to excessive public borrowing, which has to be dealt with by the end of this month.

Spain, Italy and Greece should not expect a happy new year – the eurozone’s bumpy ride is set to continue.

The US, Japan and Europe will be too cold next year. Manufacturing from emerging economies might be too hot. The result, though, might be just right.

Domestic political concerns continue to stall progress on solving the euro crisis. Fortunately, there are more propitious financial indicators elsewhere in the world.

Financial markets should benefit from recent policy moves in the eurozone and the US, but the underlying economic picture remains uncertain and potentially grim.

Eurozone moves to resolve the euro crisis are propitious for global markets. But an Israeli attack on Iran this autumn would undermine economic recovery.

The pressure is on for the US to get its private and public sector debt down – through inaction.

Spain cannot expect pan-EU economic reform measures to be introduced quickly enough to save itself from a troika programme.

None of the policy responses, monetary or fiscal, addresses the real global sickness: debt.

The end of QE support means that markets must face up to a repricing of assets on the basis of economic reality.

Greece will be forced to default and face an exit from the eurozone. That’s when the issue of contagion will rear its head again.