Strong business confidence, healthy demand for German products and an increasing share of income going to capital belie fears that Germany’s growth rate is under threat.

Continuing high levels of capital liquidity rest on flows from securitization and derivatives, and from dollar dominance in international trade. Neither source is immune to a violent adjustment.

There are signs that liquidity-generated inflation is spreading from financial bubbles into the output economy.

Eurozone countries are continuing to boost productivity vis-à-vis that in the US; consequently European equities are outperforming American ones.

Inflation is set to feed into the US economy, with destructive effects. But the beginning of the process won’t be the consumer slowdown that so many expect.

With the recent sell-off behind them, Japanese and eurozone equities look to be more attractive growth or defensive prospects than US stocks.

Less liquidity in equity markets suggests that investment strategies harnessing volatility are appropriate.

The ability of the US to run a high current account deficit rests on a widespread belief that inflation and the cost of capital will remain low. But the conditions that underpin the deficit and the dollar’s role as the principal source of global capital are unlikely to be sustained for long.

Forget the stymied constitution, Parisian événements, electoral tangles and government overspending – eurozone corporates are doing just fine and consumers are picking up on the mood.

The US housing boom is set to collapse, with adverse effects on domestic consumption. This, unlike the slowdowns in Australia and the UK, will have a marked effect on global growth.

Conflict over oil and gas supplies is set to fuel tension between western Europe and Russia in coming years.

A repricing of capital is coming soon. But advances in risk management suggest it will be a prolonged process, not a quick flip into deflation.

Europe is in better shape than a cursory examination of its politicians might suggest.

Japanese equities are at the start of a sustained bull market that in the next two years will take the Nikkei well above 20,000 from its current 14,000 level.

China’s inefficient economy is under threat because its capital costs are set to rise, but it is as likely to falter because US consumerism hits the wall. And there are signs that American profligacy cannot be sustained much longer

A punctured US property bubble is not far down the line as inflationary pressures mount. When it comes, as treasury yields inevitably move up, the US economy will slow sharply

News of an election is already perking up the Germany economy. If a centre-right coalition wins, as seems likely, expect yet more improvement

A neat theory has it that long-term interest rates are stubbornly low because of excess savings in Asia. But the Federal Reserve can't get off the hook that easily

The US economy is in a fool's paradise – Europe and Japan are by no means doomed to lag behind it. But none of these rivals can afford to abandon free trade to cope with China's massive growth

As the huge US and global debt bubbles burst under the weight of the cost of servicing, the US is certainly not the place for investors to be this year. Look instead to Europe, Japan, cash and gold

Forecasts of a soft landing for the global economy are off the mark – disinflation is at an end and interest rates are on the rise. For safe havens investors should look to gold and the euro

Americans are poor exporters. A falling dollar can't change that. What with globalization, low-cost rivals and the downplaying of the greenback, a collapse rather than an adjustment looks likely.

The productivity gap between the US and Europe is not as wide as is commonly believed. And eurozone productivity is growing, with more of that gain accruing to investors than to workers.

Inflation differentials between countries are returning and investment analysts will reinvent the technology for weighing them. First in the balance will be the US whose assets look set to weigh light against those of Europe and Japan

Asian governments have been fighting a rearguard action to hold down their currencies. They have stopped external surpluses from fuelling domestic inflation. But they are at their limits.

Current data suggest a gradual tailing off of the house price boom is likely in OECD countries. But there's still room for a sharp decline that could fuel recession and have a serious impact on overstretched banking systems and agency lenders.

Japan got through deflation in its own sweet way and its recovery is also idiosyncratic. In the long run the yen will slide but for now conditions will favour foreign investors, holding up the currency.

Deflation is on the way, summoning up a long and dreary financial winter. But it should be preceded by a burst of autumn sunshine

Although many governments will keep pushing loose fiscal policies, capital repricing is inevitable ? probably led by the ECB. That lead should favour the euro and European bonds, at least for a while

Is an oil disaster just around the corner? Barring political upheaval in the Middle East, which will not come right away, probably not. Rather, look toward benefits from falling oil prices by the year-end.