Contrary to the pessimists' view, Europe will show economic recovery this year and next. And that will ensure monetary union stays on track for 1999. In core Europe, super-cheap money has been complemented by weak exchange rates. And those easy monetary conditions are likely to win out over Europe's Maastricht fiscal masochism to produce economic recovery.

The world is all perversity. The worst that could happen to investors is stronger global growth, producing weak financial markets. That will happen if Japan picks up this year at the same time as core Europe, and there is a continued boom in the US.

Core European growth is picking up. Late last year, I said growth disappointments would make the "Emu on time" outlook seem less probable by early 1997. Consumer spending would disappoint because of Maastricht masochism and the fiscal squeeze, and because of job losses and labour market deregulation.

January's dreadful German unemployment figure is the most politically significant euro event since the Dublin summit. Chancellor Kohl was always seen to be more powerful from abroad than he was in reality at home. He is now seen as a chancellor with a great plan for European integration and no strategy for German economic rejuvenation.

Europe is changing. Against all expectations, the advent of a single European currency, backed by a strong fiscal "Stability and Growth Pact", could prove the catalyst for a much more efficient corporate sector. Despite the economic absurdity of the Maastricht criteria, the struggle to meet them is producing what Europe needs most a smaller government take from national income.

Last September in this column, I argued that the industrial economies could be heading for much lower growth than expected in 1997. Now I'm even more convinced that OECD growth will fall short of consensus estimates, which means that central banks will not be raising short-term interest rates until late this year. This affects all investment decisions. It means that the yen will be strong, and the Deutschmark and dollar weak in 1997; bond yield curves will flatten.

by David Roche

by David Roche

Japanese bond issuance sharply increased in the first nine months of this year as borrowers rushed to raise funds before interest rates rose. But the revival might fade next year. Charles Olivier reports from Tokyo on changing attitudes to capital-raising

by David Roche

by David Roche

by David Roche

by David Roche

by David Roche

My optimism depends on the EU's single market surviving the demise of Emu.

I've said it before in this column: the 1999 date for European monetary union will be postponed. I'm saying it again because the chorus of Europe's politicians proclaiming that EMU will happen on time is deafening. But I think postponement will happen, by common agreement of the 15 member states, probably before the end of this year.

The beacon of European integration can never be turned off by a nation with Germany's history, as Herr Kohl has made clear in recent comments. But there is a dimmer switch - delaying the start of European economic and monetary union (Emu).

Privatization has been one of the strongest oars rowing the boat of global economic liberalization. By David Roche.

by David Roche