![COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai](https://assets.euromoneydigital.com/dims4/default/be1b40b/2147483647/strip/true/crop/960x640+0+0/resize/800x533!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Feuromoney-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F2d%2Fef%2Faaf761584a048ffe0a4d608bfe87%2Fshanghai-street-rts9gzxc.jpg)
“For the rest of the year, everything will be carefully managed and manicured. The 20th Congress is just too important.”
George Magnus – referring here to an upcoming November 2022 meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, where president Xi Jinping should be anointed president for an unprecedented third term in office – knows China better than most.
A former chief economist for UBS Investment Bank, Magnus is also an associate at Oxford University’s China Centre and author of ‘Red flags: Why Xi’s China is in jeopardy’.
![George Magnus, UBS Investment Bank.jpg](https://assets.euromoneydigital.com/dims4/default/058dead/2147483647/strip/true/crop/960x650+0+0/resize/800x542!/quality/90/?url=http%3A%2F%2Feuromoney-brightspot.s3.amazonaws.com%2F9c%2Fc4%2Fa478c6174aedbc1447d7f094f056%2Fgeorge-magnus-ubs-investment-bank.jpg)
In normal conditions, Magnus’s assessment would be a dead cert.
Xi is setting himself up as president-for-life, Magnus says, which means there must be no nasty surprises in the months ahead. So no pandemic spikes in big rich cities or the poor hinterland; no growth fears or bank runs; no social instability; and absolutely no flirting with recession.
Oh, hang on a minute.
Actually, China faces all those issues in capital letters – and more besides.
Amid the myriad problems facing developed nations – from slow growth to high prices to supply-chain bottlenecks – China’s economic woes have largely gone unnoticed.