“Latin American countries are experienced with inflation – even hyper-inflation – and that is in the DNA of the people,” Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis tells Euromoney. “We are coming out of a world [in developed markets] that, since 1982, inflation has been falling until it was almost non-existent. These people have never experienced an inflationary cycle – it’s something completely new – so it is a mental and philosophical advantage to be operating in a world that’s had experience of inflation.”
Gijsels has partnered with the bank’s chief economist Koen De Leus on a recently published book called 'The New World Economy in 5 Trends' in which they say that the outlook for the global economy will favour Latin America.
Four of the five identified trends – climate, multi-globalism, debt and ageing – will, they say, create inflationary pressures, and Gijsels believes these will create competitive advantage for Latin American economies.
And he says it is not just a mental advantage. The region’s status as a producer of soft and hard commodities will also help in a global inflationary environment.
“Latin America is certainly well positioned because what you need is real assets – you need gold, you need commodities, tangible products.”