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THE RECOVERY IN trade has mirrored that of the global economy – historically trade expands at two to three times the rate of GDP growth and this recovery follows that pattern. According to the World Trade Organization, trade volume (measured by exports) grew annually by nearly 6% on average between 2000 and 2007, before slowing to 2% in 2008 and then plummeting by a record 12% in 2009 in the wake of the global financial crisis.
By July 2010, world trade volume had recovered to roughly its level of July 2008 and was close to its pre-crisis peak in April of that year. Although growth slowed in the second half of 2010, the World Trade Organization forecasts world trade volume growth of 13.5% for the year as a whole.
Just as the recovery in economic growth has been uneven, with pallid expansion in much of the developed world and near-boom conditions in leading emerging markets, so the recovery in trade has amplified the growing strength of developing markets.