“The first step towards America living within its means”. Undoubtedly an encouraging comment from Obama, but not exactly convincing. The budget deficit will still expand, and the burden of future Social Security and Medicare is no lighter. What deficit cutting has been imposed falls on the low and middle-income members of society, which can but reinforce the slowdown of growth? The argument that tax increases on the rich and on corporations would be economically damaging is entirely bogus in a country where tax rates are so low. |
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When the recession first began, we wrote that it would be L-shaped, i.e. a drop in GDP would be followed by a long period of negligible growth. For the USA we had estimated a 6-7% drop, but it turned out to be 5.1%. Money printing by the Fed delayed “flatness” for a couple of years, but it is now well installed, and, in terms of GDP per capita, even earlier than expected. |
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Austerity has now been recognised as unavoidable in the USA. That represents a major step forward in the ability of politicians to face reality. Yet they remain stubborn in their belief that they can achieve economic growth despite austerity. We have our doubts, although there may be degree of austerity which still allows modest growth. |
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The UK is at that point, showing just how difficult it is to find the right balance. While the determination of the Coalition to achieve a balanced budget can only be admired, the squeeze may be overdone. That is obviously the view within the UK, and it is now finding support from the IMF. |
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With the distraction of watching the USA go to the brink over the debt ceiling now over, the spotlight has returned to the euro zone, and particularly to Spain and Italy. The economic performance of Germany remains the saving grace of the euro zone, with all the responsibilities – some suspect ambition – of dominating Continental Europe in economic terms via EU fiscal centralisation. Just as the dollar is fundamentally weak, so the structure of the euro zone is fundamentally unstable. Both require radical treatment to overcome a chronic condition. Very slowly this is dawning on the authorities concerned: a balanced budget, including tax increases, for the USA, and a fiscal and transfer union for the euro zone. |
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Will the authorities in the euro zone act firmly and quickly enough? 10-year yields on Spanish and Italian government debt are now over 6%. 7% marks the level at which the country is deemed to have lost the support of international markets. Bail-outs have been granted for Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but the EU would have a real struggle dealing with Spain and Italy. |
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With a resolution of the US Debt ceiling debate, we had hoped that our clients would once again return to active position taking, but, alas, so far that has not happened. We also thought the rise in the CHF would halt, yet it has gone still further, prompting the SNB to this morning cut interest rates, and to state that they would intervene in currency markets following a ‘substantial deterioration’ in the economic outlook. If these actions are not successful, Switzerland is facing the prospect of severe job losses, and a potential exodus from the country as a manufacturing base. |
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Market Focus |
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Disclaimer |
August 3 , 2011 |
Dr. Roy Damary |