THE TIMES ARE A-CHANGING
Foreign exchange rate forecasters escape the ordeal this year. Euromoney's traditional system of measuring performance no longer fits the diverging routes forecasters have gone to cope with today's volatile markets.
A total of 12 forecasters agreed to provide Euromoney with historical track records of actual recommendations made since their inception or 1981, whichever was later. They are Barnes & Co; Best & Associes; AG Bisset & Co., Inc; Brian Marber & Compan ; Friedberg Commodities; FX Concepts; Hanseatic; Interfinance; Multinational Computer Models; PREDEX; Valuta; Waldner & Company.
Of these, only three have not appeared in previous studies while four have appeared since the original study in 1978. Six services also provided calculations indicating the level of return that service each believed it had achieved over each representative period. Three services provided actual audited results of their performance, as calculated by internationally recognized accounting firms.
Setting out to perform the calculations for the 1986 survey proved to be more difficult than that of previous years. The environment has changed as the pressures of the forecasting industry's clientele, combined with the ever-volatile foreign exchange marketplace, has forced forecasting firms to become increasingly more sophisticated in their efforts to remain profitable and ahead of their competitors.