Passing the point of no return

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Passing the point of no return

Don't be distracted by chaos in Albania, Bulgaria or Russia ­ there is no chance of a return to communism in eastern Europe. Nigel Dudley reports

A SUPPLEMENT TO EUROMONEY - APRIL 1997

It was the perfect symbol of the new Russia. Last month president Boris Yeltsin appeared at the Helsinki summit looking fitter and more confident than he had done for months ­ an image reinforced by the contrast to Bill Clinton, who had been confined to a wheel-chair after a knee operation.

For most of the 1990s Russia has been the sick man of eastern Europe, weakened first by the loss of its satellite states in eastern Europe and then by the disintegration of the USSR. Things seemed to worsen last year. The conflict in Chechnya spiralled out of control while Yeltsin at first seemed incapable of winning the June presidential election ­ and once in office he appeared unlikely to live more than a few months.

But every month that Yeltsin stays in office ­ and remains healthy ­ reinforces the reform process not just in Russia but across the whole region and makes a regression to communism less likely.

The World Bank, for instance, argues in its World Development Report ­ from Plan to Marketthat the chances of a return to state planning are remote.

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