Asset-backed securitization (ABS) took off in a big way in Europe last year, with the value of transactions soaring to a record $35.4 billion, roughly the level of the US market about seven years ago. Growth potential is still huge, especially as countries in Europe and elsewhere are beginning to put enabling legislation into place, but securitization teams don't expect the boom to rival levels in the US, where issuance last year rose to $150 billion. In its relatively short life the European ABS market has flourished to a point where today's outstanding volume is about $360 billion, equivalent to nearly 80% of the total German bond market.
"There will be a continuing increase in the market but I do not anticipate a dramatic move upwards," says Dorian Klein, Merrill Lynch's director of structured finance. "If you look at 1996, it was a bit of an aberration. Three transactions accounted for about half the total volume."
Klein argues that the European ABS market will never be quite match the US's. He sees one-off opportunities for very large deals, but probably not on a annual basis. "The market will do perhaps two to five multi-billion dollar transactions a year," he says.