Equity boom or bust?

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Equity boom or bust?

Last year the international markets raised a record $113 billion in new equity and equity-linked instruments. Judging by rising secondary markets and heavy trading volumes in January, and an ambitious privatization calendar, investment bankers should be in for another busy year. But are hectic new issue schedules a recipe for mistakes? Peter Lee asks if the equity bonanza could end in disaster

A SUPPLEMENT TO EUROMONEY - MARKETS 1997

The head of equity capital markets at a large European bank hesitates, just for a moment, before making a surprising confession. The bonus his firm paid to him in early 1996 still sits in cash at his bank. He has not invested the substantial windfall in the equities markets. Nor does he feel any inclination to invest the bonus he is about to be paid for 1996 which, given the scale of new issue activity last year, will be an even more handsome sum. The reason is simple. He feels that world share markets are at or close to their tops. Instinct tells him that stocks are unlikely to move up substantially from their present values and may well fall back.

But the same banker is rubbing his hands in glee at the prospect of another year of hectic activity in international equity primary markets, during which he will be urging buyers to exchange their cash for shares. "If just a fraction of the deals we have in the pipe-line are done this year, we will have a very strong 1997," he chortles.

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