A question of timing

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A question of timing

Thailand in mid-1997 has an economic fight for survival on its hands. Can things get worse? Gill Baker examines the market

The mother of all water fights has been going on in Thailand recently. In the Songkran festival, Thais celebrate the lunar new year by sprinkling water in temples. At least that's the tradition. Now the ceremony has developed into a three-day water-hurling exercise. No-one, including passing motorcyclists, is spared a drenching from exuberant Thais armed with water guns, buckets and hosepipes.

The Songkran excesses are perhaps proof that the people of Thailand have not lost their sense of fun, although they have lost much else. Repossessed Mercedes and BMWs line up in the parking lots of hire purchase companies, the property market has ground to a halt, and the stock market has been in free-fall for the last year. Thailand in 1997 is definitely not flushed with success.

Finance minister and deputy prime minister Amnuay Viravan, together with Bank of Thailand governor Rerngchai Marakanond, spent the run-up to their Songkran holiday in the US, presenting a series of roadshows to investors. They apparently came across well enough to convince institutions to oversubscribe for $1 billion of the country's $600 million yankee bond issue. But, with a Moody's downgrade from A2 to A3, the country's image in the international capital markets is very different to the blossoming Thailand of a few years ago.

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