When Germany's federal election takes place on September 27 the miracle of chancellor Helmut Kohl's winning in 1994 against all predictions won't be repeated. There are good reasons why. Germany's economy may be picking up, but domestic demand recovery is tentative. During 1997 the rebound was export-led, and although the domestic investment cycle is turning up, household spending remains flat at best. At 10.7% unemployment is still too high and much of the recent job creation has come from government-sponsored schemes, especially in the eastern Länder where Kohl's ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) remain deeply unpopular.
This time the opposition Social Democrats (SPD) are led by a capable personality. Gerhard Schröder is highly popular and an effective debater who handles the media well. What's more the SPD has maintained a united front during the campaign and Schröder has set out to reassure the middle class that it has nothing to fear from his party. There have been no pre-election overtures to the communist PDS and the SPD has kept its distance from the Greens. So the odds are Kohl will be pushed out, ending 16 years of conservative rule. Indeed, the main speculation in Germany is about the kind of coalition Schröder can put together.