LEBANON
A SUPPLEMENT TO EUROMONEY/FEBRUARY 1998
Lebanon aims for the millennium
After the war, the reconstruction. It means $15 million-worth of damage has to be repaired to say nothing of international sentiment. But, as Jules Stewart reports, the international banks are back and optimism is returning
The 1989 Ta'if Accord put an end to more than 15 years of civil war in Lebanon. The country's task is now to rebuild its shattered economy and infrastructure. About 150,000 people were killed in factional fighting between 1975 and 1990, and physical damage is estimated at more than $15 billion. Some 750,000 Lebanese fled the violence and now live abroad. The government anxiously wants to attract these people and their skills back to Lebanon to work in reconstruction. Even in a low-growth environment it is estimated that this will require $26 billion in investment, of which $20 billion will have to come from foreign sources. If growth picks up, the respective estimates are $32 billion and $22 billion.
How plausible is it that Lebanon can absorb and attract such substantial capital inflows?
"The answer depends to a large extent on the relative real after-tax rate of return to investment in Lebanon as compared with other countries, as well as the perceived risk of investing in the country," says Nasser Saidi, vice-governor of the Banque du Liban, Lebanon's central bank.