Virtuous circle of cash and mobility

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Virtuous circle of cash and mobility

Will Emu collapse under the weight of its own contradictions? Ian Cormack argues that it will not. Liquid bond markets and massive capital flows will create a virtuous circle unlocking the flexibility of Europe's labour markets.

Until recently, much of the debate over Economic and Monetary Union has concentrated on the line-up of participating countries, the process and mechanics of transition or the stewardship of the European Central Bank.

Yet the key topic for professionals must now be the shape and nature of Europe after the event. It will be a whole new world - a world of new political pressures, new financial priorities and new business perspectives.

Cost and price transparency across national borders will have unpredictable behavioural implications on individuals, institutions and companies, and governments.

They will feed on and interact with each other in different ways, at different speeds, in different sectors and in different countries. There will be no simple conversion from the current state to the future state. There will be no standard response to the new financial circumstances. It will be a lot more complicated than that.

My perspective on the economic framework within which Europe's future may evolve has two sharply divergent outcomes - one very bearish for Europe's capital markets, the other very bullish. My own belief is that the outcome will not only be a positive one, but that Europe post-Emu has the potential to become the emerging economy of the next century.

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