After a decade of outperformance, the US equity market will struggle to keep pace with Europe and Japan. But US treasuries will do better this year than last, particularly if the US equity market corrects (as I expect). The euro will eclipse the US dollar as the strongest major currency as growth accelerates in the eurozone. The yen will drift lower, but not until after the end of the current fiscal year in March. As last year, the internet will remain a driving force of investment returns - even if volatility remains high. The web is here to stay, reshaping the corporate landscape globally. Those companies that respond quickest to the challenge of e-commerce may face rising investment outlays now. But they'll be the leaders of the future, as volume gains drive down the marginal cost of doing business. Global inflation is rising again. Producer inflation is already up sharply from levels a year ago and consumer inflation is gradually following suit. |
