This should be the moment when banks' credit analysts, long the poor relations of their more celebrated colleagues on the equity trading floor, finally come into their own.
First, theirs is the market with all the momentum. The credit market in Europe has doubled in size since 1999. The asset class continues to grow - the 940 replies to Euromoney's credit poll this year, compared with 340 last, is testimony to this. In Europe in particular, new funds continue to be dedicated to credit investing at a time of shrinking primary market supply. That provides strong technical support, despite all the recent credit blow-ups, such as at Marconi and Swissair, and all the concerns that have swirled around Invensys, France Telecom, Sonera and others.
In 2001, a year when Argentina defaulted, Enron went bankrupt and downgrades outstripped upgrades by a record margin, credit still outperformed the equity markets.