Political risks outweigh improving credit background
How the world got more risky: 13 year review of country risk data
GLOBAL RANKING:
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For historical country risk data please visit the Euromoney Country risk website |
THE LATEST COUNTRY risk survey carried out by Euromoney again indicated a slight downgrade in the assessment of overall risk levels, reflected in the total country risk score decreasing by 0.5% on the figures six months before and falling a sharp 3.8% on September 2004. This was despite a general trend in the past six months towards improved sovereign credit ratings from the main ratings agencies. However the analysts polled by Euromoney are not as optimistic as the rating agencies.
There was also a moderate narrowing in bond spreads as well as a fall in stock prices in the period. Saruhan Hatipoglu, director of US-based risk analysis consultancy Business Environment Risk Intelligence (Beri), maintains that world trade is showing signs of yet another slowdown, which will have an adverse impact on exports globally but particularly on those from China.
This increase in risk is further confirmed by credit risk rating agency Coface's country rating, which downgraded Italy (for its export sector) and Greece.