Emerging Europe

Russia’s and Venezuela’s plight was predicted by Euromoney’s country risk survey well before the market priced in their deteriorating creditworthiness. Other, similarly ranked oil-producing sovereigns could endure a similar fate.

Crude oil prices dropped precipitously in the latter part of 2014, raising challenging questions about where they might go in 2015. Undershooting well below a mythical fundamental equilibrium price is a distinct possibility if history is any guide.

Euromoney meets Ioana Petrescu in Bucharest as she wrestles with the challenge of kick-starting an IMF-bound sputtering economy in the teeth of political opposition.

The Ukrainian hryvnia has been ravaged in 2014, with the conflict with Russia exacerbating the challenges faced by this highly indebted economy.

The WSE should pursue local opportunities, rather than chasing new listings from foreign firms.

Moscow’s revamped stock exchange has everything it takes to be a global player, with the exception of supply and demand. Has Russia’s isolation put a dampener on its ambitious domestic capital markets development programme?

Three years ago, the leader of one of the world’s biggest countries almost called for a run on one of its biggest banks.

Turkey’s president has tried to kick of one of the country’s largest banks into touch, through public attacks and behind-the-scenes pressure. Despite becoming a political football, Bank Asya is still in the game. Can Turkey’s reputation in the west as a place to do business survive Erdogan’s continued, politically-motivated vendetta?

Merger with Vienna ‘too complex’; regional listings in the spotlight.

Romania’s country-risk score improved slightly in the immediate aftermath of the Klaus Iohannis’s surprise election victory, as participating economists cautiously signalled their optimism over the likely policy direction the country might now take.

The latest results of a systemic risk index reveal elevated risks in Russia, Portugal and France but a generally marked improvement across the rest of Europe.

Analysts support the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) response to the collapse of the rouble, arguing it will shift market expectations and could stabilize the currency in the medium-term. In an interview with Euromoney before the move, a CBR official discusses the opportunities and challenges in the regime shift.

When Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz paid $1.6 billion to redeem a bond maturing on October 1, one Twitter commentator accused the country’s policymakers of “defaulting on its citizens”.

The country’s banks will not be able to shoulder the debt burden of its planned infrastructure programme. But palatable alternatives that don’t involve government guarantees aren’t yet ready, so for the foreseeable future, debt refinancing of projects is confined to after construction.

Politicians have promised that reform is on the way. International investors are apparently ready to step in if the conflict calms. But will it be in time to rescue an economy bedevilled by fighting, corruption and currency shortages? Banks are struggling to survive, hamstrung by lack of funding and capital. On the eve of parliamentary elections, Euromoney visited Kiev to canvass the views of policymakers, bankers and international sponsors. Is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Stock exchange consolidation is back in focus in emerging Europe after the appointment of a new head for the Warsaw bourse. Further tie-ups across the region could yet prove politically problematic.

Investor demand tops $11 billion; Oil price, rouble falls raise devaluation fears.

The chief executive of the leading Turkish Islamic bank claims it is the victim of a politically driven campaign by the country’s president, in an exclusive interview with Euromoney.

While sanctions are hitting the Russian markets and pushing up interest rates, senior executives at Sberbank and potash producer Uralkali tell Euromoney the country’s banks and corporates are looking internally and to the east for new sources of financing. But with Russia sliding towards recession, liquidity is vanishing.

I was intrigued to see that Blackstone, the leading private equity firm, is disengaging from Russia.

Turkey’s embattled investors can be forgiven feeling defensive, with economic challenges closing in on them from every side – from the Middle East crisis and strengthening dollar to the stubborn current-account deficit.

Sector profitability holding up; central bank adds dollars to liquidity provision.

CEE enthusiasts should not despair just yet. A number of the clouds handing over the region might turn out, on closer inspection, to have a silver lining.

It has been another torrid month for the rouble, but the possibility of tensions with Ukraine abating in the near term and a package of monetary reforms next year offer hope for more trading opportunities.

In our September edition, Euromoney explores the banking and capital-market landscape in emerging Europe, including sanction-laden Russia’s courtship of Asia, corporate debt issuance in the region, Turkish banking and an interview with one of Russia’s most independent billionaires.

Incensed by their failure to reform, Brics policymakers have established a flawed rival to the World Bank and IMF. Rhetoric aside, the west dismisses emerging-market dissent over the broken financial architecture at its peril.

Kazakhstan is going all out to achieve its goal of becoming a middle-income state by 2030, forming unique partnerships with development banks. It could be a turning point not just for the central Asia nation, but for the multilaterals too.

With a seemingly bottomless pool of cheap bank funding readily available, companies in emerging Europe have tended to shun the international bond markets. A recent spurt of debut deals, however, has prompted speculation that the long-awaited shift might finally be under way.

Two bold moves by Borsa Istanbul indicate that the exchange is seeking to take advantage of the Turkish economy’s new found confidence. Both focus on its understanding that Turkey needs to facilitate markets and expertise to leverage economic growth. The first is the creation of a partnership with the US stock exchange operator Nasdaq OMX. The second is the launch of a private market for unlisted companies.

There’s a new buzzword from Ankara to Istanbul in Turkey’s financial markets: sustainability. Not of the environmental kind, but borne of a desire to keep the positive developments of the country’s economy, and its banks, flowing.