Emerging Europe

Private equity in Turkey is finally gaining momentum. For the country’s first independent private equity firm, launching its second fund, it’s not a moment too soon.

Emerging markets Equity indices in emerging markets outperformed those of developed markets in 2007, rising 42% compared with a gain of just 9.4% in developed markets, according to Standard & Poor’s global stock market review, The World by Numbers.

Banks must come to terms with higher costs of funding, putting some at a competitive disadvantage to their peers for the first time. The worst hit might have to rethink completely how they fund themselves.

In a sign of growing economic cooperation between Russia and China, VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, has become the first bank from the country to receive a licence to open a branch in China. VTB’s Shanghai branch will primarily service Russia-China trade, big industrial inter-state projects and the investment projects of Russian and Chinese companies.

The bad news: in 2008 a global recession is bound to set in. The scant good news: the oil price will fall back and the development of environment-friendly technology will fuel investment.

Such is the fragile state of leading banks that they might have to sell their highly prized emerging markets businesses to survive.

Our annual poll shows which banks are best positioned to benefit from any upturn in the credit market's fortunes.

The Republic of Turkey, emerging Europe’s most prolific issuer in the international debt markets, made a strong start to 2008 with the reopening of its 2018 6.75% dollar Eurobond for $1 billion.

Central and eastern European issuers are likely to find accessing the international bond markets a challenging experience in the coming months given the continued US-inspired global liquidity squeeze. Speaking at Euromoney’s conference on central and eastern Europe in Vienna, Fokion Karavias, general manager of the global markets division at Greece’s EFG Eurobank, says that on the back of a general flight to quality from emerging towards developed markets all borrowers will face tougher market conditions but that government borrowers should find it easiest to issue. "Sovereigns will need to pay much higher spreads, but they will be able to issue," says Karavias, adding that even potential Euromarket debutantes such as Albania and Azerbaijan could get maiden issues away if they are prepared to pay the higher market clearing levels being demanded by investors.

A strong pipeline of deals keeps ECM bankers optimistic for 2008.

The strategic investment case for emerging European equities remains solid despite the deterioration of global markets caused by liquidity constraints in the banking system, says Martin Majdaniuk, manager of Baring Emerging Europe, which has $850 million under management and has returned 195.6% over the past three years.

Last month the panel examined volatility and the reported demise of the dollar. This month, they discuss the merits of prime brokerage, the weakness of algos and how to generate alpha.

After a stop-start year of asset-backed securities issuance in 2007, Fitch Ratings expects European emerging market securitizations to perform comparatively well in 2008. However, it says that a prolonged credit squeeze could hit demand for structured bonds. "Borrowers with hard-currency refinancing needs have so far weathered the liquidity crunch remarkably well but their funding needs will become more acute if the international capital markets remain closed for another two or three quarters, and local markets are not deep enough to provide alternative funding," says Jaime Sanz, head of European emerging market securitization at Fitch in London.

Goldman Sachs has taken a minority stake in Kiev-based investment bank Dragon Capital via a share capital increase. "This development is recognition of the professionalism and success of our 120-strong multinational team and of our track record of triple-digit returns on equity," says Tomas Fiala, Dragon Capital’s managing director and controlling shareholder.

Board stupid

The CEE region has huge potential for renewable energy, but there are obstacles to its development – not least the apparent unconcern of the region’s largest nation. Can Russia be induced to get behind the drive for cleaner energy? Jethro Wookey reports.

If you are a fund manager interested in investing in central and eastern Europe, there is a strong possibility that you will be directed towards Hungarian government debt. The country’s debt management agency, the AKK, has issued about €2 billion annually to meet the country’s budgetary deficit in recent years. With about 30% of the debt held by foreign portfolio investors, perhaps the most important influence on its price is perception of the government’s resolve to limit an unusually large deficit.

Rapid privatization in the 1990s in which foreigner investors took many of the best prizes has left the Budapest stock market in a fragile state. After a recent foreign attempt to acquire one of the exchange’s few blue chips, Hungary’s government and companies are on the defensive. Dominic O’Neill reports.

But cheer up – things might get better later in 2008.

Feeling the GE force

The credit crunch has precipitated a shift in the balance of power in the European debt capital markets.

Despite reeling from billions of dollars of losses in the US sub-prime mortgage markets, Citi is looking to expand its franchise in the high-growth Russian banking market. Bill Mills, chairman of Citi markets and banking for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, recently announced that the US bank would open new offices in Kazan, Perm, Ufa, Chelyabinsk, Omsk and Novosibirsk in 2008-09. Since 2002, the bank has opened more than 60 offices in Russia, including outlets in Moscow, Nizhni Novgorod, Samara, Rostov-on-Don, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

Eastern Europe has borrowed cheaply this decade to fund a credit binge. Now, as the global credit crisis starts to bite, the region’s economies are becoming increasingly vulnerable.

Market participants are confident that Scandinavian exchange operator OMX’s acquisition of the Armenian Stock Exchange (Armex) will help to boost interest in the Caucasian republic’s burgeoning capital markets in 2008.

Austria’s Wiener Börse is looking to steal some of the London Stock Exchange’s thunder in 2008 and break its stranglehold on international equity issuance from central and eastern Europe.

The flight of the Russian phoenix

The flight of the Russian phoenix

Despite being caught up in the perceived vulnerability of Kazakh banks to the global credit crunch, Kazkommertsbank has established a 100% subsidiary in the fast-growing market of Tajikistan. Banking assets in Tajikistan grew 43% in 2006, with deposits and loans growth up 93% and 79%, respectively. Including the central bank there are 20 bank and credit societies registered in the country.

Volatility in FX has increased because of the credit crisis but not as much as some expected. Inflation will bring more pressure and central banks face a dilemma.