France’s creditworthiness has continually worsened during the six years since the global financial crisis. The question is whether the rising risk trend will continue into 2015 and will that begin to affect its borrowing costs, which have recently hit record lows.

Romania’s country-risk score improved slightly in the immediate aftermath of the Klaus Iohannis’s surprise election victory, as participating economists cautiously signalled their optimism over the likely policy direction the country might now take.

Peru’s investor safety has come under close scrutiny from economists over the past year, forcing it down to 45th in the global rankings. Although its risk rating remains far better than it was 10 or 15 years ago, several of the country’s economic and political risk indicators have slipped recently, mostly in response to falling minerals prices, weakening production and investment in the mining sector. This, in conjunction with lower state capital spending has pushed GDP growth down to around half the 6%-plus average recorded for the past decade. The resignation of finance minister Luis Miguel Castilla and impending sub-national elections are unsettling the political environment, and there are question marks hanging over corruption in Peru and its institutional strengths – two of the political risk assessment factors scoring fewer than half the points available. Yet the sovereign’s prospects remain favourable, with orthodox policies and large infrastructure projects continuing, including a gas pipeline, new copper and gold mines scheduled to start production over the next few years, and expansion of the Lima metro railway system.

Mexico has continued to find favour among risk experts in recent years and the country’s image as an investment destination is much improved, particularly since its risk rating surpassed Brazil’s last year. On a score of 62 points and lying 37th on Euromoney’s global risk rankings, the sovereign is closing in on tier-2 status, pointing to a future upgrade of its triple-B credit rating. At the heart of Mexico’s improving risk profile is a more stable and consensus-seeking political approach that is encouraging risk experts to raise their scores for government stability, as well as the regulatory and policymaking environment under the presidency of Enrique Peña Nieta, who has been working congenially with opposition parties to pass legislation since 2012. All five of Mexico’s economic risk indicators have enjoyed a rising score trend on the back of an expanding middle class driving a consumer boom, as well as improvements in educational standards and structural reforms boosting cost efficiencies. Removing entry barriers to private investment in oil, gas, electricity and telecoms sectors has bolstered Mexico’s global competitiveness, alongside the benefits of its highly productive maquiladora manufacturing base enjoying duty free access to the US market and solid economic growth.

One of the most striking performers in Euromoney’s survey, Uruguay has seen its risk score increase by more than any other Latin American sovereign over three years, taking the sovereign to 48th out of 189 countries in the global rankings. Much of that is down to politics, with all six indicators, ranging from non-payment/non-repatriation risk, to policymaking and government stability, on improved score trends. The predominantly agricultural economy faces risks from weakened FDI from Argentina and interrupted capital flows resulting from US liquidity withdrawal. The country’s road network and port facilities remain challenging, too, hindering logistics and preventing its infrastructure scores from rising much above five out of 10. But the economy is still performing admirably, growing by 3.7% year on year during the second quarter after a 4.4% expansion last year. Inflation, likely to exceed 8% in 2014, is a little high for comfort. However, the fiscal and current account deficits (scratching up 3% and 5% of GDP respectively this year) should improve in 2015 in response to a tourism drive and the start-up of export-oriented production from the Montes del Plata industrial complex, a huge wood-pulp investment in Punta Pereira, Colonia.

Paraguay’s claims for an investment-grade rating have been bolstered by a five-place jump in Euromoney’s risk survey this year, taking the sovereign to 80th in the global rankings. Economists are more confident of prospects since the election as president last year of the right-wing Colorado Party candidate Horacio Cartes, a reform-minded businessman, and the emergence of a more dynamic, investment-led economy. Cartes is enduring considerable opposition to the workforce dislocation that comes from reforms. The economy is vulnerable, moreover, to a reliance on cash crops – hence the still comparatively low risk score. Yet having long suffered from corruption, poor transparency, weak institutional underpinnings and inadequate policymaking, the shift in political ethos back to the right following six years of left-wing government has spawned optimism the country will shake off its economic and social challenges. A focus on transport and energy projects has seen Paraguay’s score for its hard infrastructure improve, while low inflation and debt, a current account close to balance and solid reserves epitomise the rewards of a policy approach shining in the shadow of Brazil’s failings.

The time when international fund managers saw Latin America as a homogenous investment call is gone. The days of differentiation are here. And as many of the region’s leading countries look to make the difficult transition from developing to developed economies, their finance ministers are fully aware of the need to create, and tell, their individual investment cases.

The darling of Latin America’s bond issuers for many years, Chile remains by far the safest sovereign in the region. Commanding a first-rate score of 77 points out of 100, the business-friendly nation is comparable with safe havens such as New Zealand, Hong Kong and even the US. However, Chile’s macroeconomic scores have slipped since last year. Economic headwinds include reduced demand from China weighing on copper prices – its principal export – and on the peso’s exchange rate, boosting inflation. Investment is also contracting slightly. Yet although economic activity has slowed, 3% growth is still expected for 2014, the current account deficit is narrowing and FX reserves exceed five months of import coverage. Chile’s survey score for government finances remains rock solid and less risky than any of its other economic sub-factors. A strong starting point and a manageable debt profile allow for a small fiscal deficit to arise in 2014/15 without derailing sovereign creditworthiness. Political risk is lower too than any other country in the region, with investors facing limited threats from non-repayment, opaque fiscal accounting or weak institutions.

Colombia had a bumpy path in the previous decade, reflecting the costs and uncertainties of its civil conflict with leftist rebels. Yet the sovereign’s score has lately improved to 58 points and to within a hair’s breadth of Brazil, ranking 42nd on ECR’s global scoreboard. The re-election of president Juan Manuel Santos provides a mandate to deliver peace with the Farc rebels. The sovereign’s brighter outlook rests too on a rising score for its economic outlook, which is higher than Brazil’s, as are its survey scores for monetary policy/currency stability and bank stability. A strong policymaking environment is responsible, with monetary policy enhanced by inflation-targeting and a flexible exchange rate; financial stability benefiting from improved supervision and regulation; and fiscal credibility underpinned by structural sustainability with a fiscal balance rule and tax reform containing the deficit. Admittedly Colombia is as vulnerable to negative shocks as any country and plagued by a depressingly low score for corruption.

The latest results from the Euromoney Country Risk survey point to an unprecedented rise in risk across almost all geographical regions since June, with emerging markets (EMs) taking the biggest hit as doubts over China, the eurozone and US liquidity support weigh heavily on experts’ evaluations.

The rating agency is still holding out on awarding the investment grade Fitch and Moody’s are standing by. Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey explains why.

Paraguay’s rising score in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey reflects a fundamental shift in the political and structural outlook since the new president took office last year.

Euromoney Country Risk’s expert panel identifies corruption as the main political risk factor in most countries in the region, though overall economic risk has fallen since 2011.

US indicators are slowly improving, but Euromoney’s country-risk experts are still not as confident in its creditworthiness compared with the rating agencies. The question is why?

With Ireland’s sovereign yield now comfortably below 2% and risk score continuing to climb, investors have reason to be optimistic over its prospects.

The sovereign’s rising score reflects a fundamental shift in the political and structural outlook since the new president took office last year.

Investors might be worried by the tail-risk implications of the failed Portuguese lender BES but the sovereign is in a much improved state since completing its three-year bailout programme.

The failure of Portuguese lender Banco Espírito Santo (BES) points to lingering fault lines in the financial regulatory framework and knock-on effects for banks outside the EU.

The sovereign’s risk score has been falling for the past two-and-a-half years, culminating in overdue action by Moody’s.

From Estonia to Belarus, many sovereigns have been caught up in a crisis their credit ratings fail to reflect.

The latest results from the ECR survey show emerging markets (EMs) becoming riskier during the first half of this year, in contrast to the increasing safety offered by developed countries across the G10 and an improving eurozone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina is the world’s riskiest sovereign, according to a new model developed to calculate default probabilities, ahead of other high-risk countries such as Belarus, Ukraine and Rwanda.

The rating agency’s upgraded assessments still seem out of line with improving Euromoney Country Risk survey data, market indicators and its own ratings for other sovereigns.

The Asian tiger heads a select group comprising Poland, Israel, Colombia and Uruguay, all resisting the increased investor risks afflicting other EM sovereigns.

Crashing through ECR’s global rankings, the sovereign’s plight underscores the perils of investing on a risky frontier.

Focusing on the larger, fragile EMs has deflected attention away from worrying risk trends afflicting other borrowers.

With faith slowly restored in Brazil, India and Indonesia this year, there is no longer a fragile five of large EMs, leading risk experts to shift focus to the fragility of borrowers in sub-Saharan Africa.

Experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey were ahead of the game in predicting the increased default risk plaguing peripheral, eurozone sovereigns in the wake of the 2008 crisis, and repeatedly so across a range of issuers.

Asia has succumbed to increased risk during the past year, with experts taking part in Euromoney’s Country Risk Survey downgrading scores for the majority of these sovereigns. South Korea is among a handful bucking the trend.

Improved risk scores by Euromoney Country Risk indicate the worst might be over for the debt-distressed eurozone sovereigns, but caution is the buzzword, as many countries are grappling with huge debt burdens, and with question marks still surrounding Greece.