While bond markets are up in arms about the contingent liabilities of Greek, Irish and Portuguese sovereigns, high-risk Bulgaria appears to have slipped off their radar.

The Japanese people have a remarkable capacity to rebuild their country after disaster. Consider the medium-term impact of the current tragedy; it is not all negative.

It began with the confiscation of a vegetable stall in Sidibouzid, Tunisia. Now it has spread throughout the Middle East. A region where political change had seemed unthinkable is approaching a defining moment. Andrew Mortimer reports.

With special thanks to the World Bank, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s Investors Service, Fitch IBCA and the following economists/institutions for their contributions: Adam Antoniak, Bank BPH SA; Anjali Verma, MF Global Sify Securities I Pvt Ltd; Azusa Kato, BNP Paribas; Bernard Musyck, Frederick University; Camilo Perez, Banco de Bogota; Cheng Cheng-Mount, Citibank Taiwan; Colen Garrow, Brait SA Ltd; Dr Olga Mrinska, Institute of Local and Regional Initiatives; Eduard Hagara, ING Barings; Francesca Panelli, Aletti Gestielle SGR SPA; Hans Holzhacker, Nenci Francesca and Rozália Pál, UniCredit Group; Helena Horska, Raiffeisenbank; John R. Harris, Boston University; Julien Manceaux and Dmitry Polevoy, ING; Madan Sabnavis, Credit Analysis and Research Ltd; Maristella Ansanelli, Banco Fibra; Michael Kappeler, LGT Capital Management; Michael Loufir, National Bank of Greece; Nassib Ghobril, Byblos Bank; Nuchjarin Panarode, Capital Nomura Securities; Olena Bilan, Dragon-Capital; Oliver Kovacs, ICEG European Center; Panicos Demetriades, University of Leicester; Peter Meister, BHF Bank Aktien Gesellschaft; Philip Hanson, Chatham House; Plamen Plantev, ISIS; Pornthep Jubandhu, Siam Commercial Bank; Robin Clements, UBS; Shakill K. Hasssan, University of Cape Town, Tiina Helenius, Handelsbanken; Vicky Redwood, Capital Economics; Vitaliy Vavryshchuk, BG Capital; Henry Mo, Credit Suisse; Lana Soelistianingsih, PT Samuel Sekuritas; Michal Dybula, BNP Paribas; Georgy Y. Ganev, Centre for Liberal Strategies; Wei Li, Standard Chartered Bank China; Pragrom Pathomboorn, Siam Commercial Bank; Aysegul Aykol Kocabas; Tekstil Bankasi; Martin Pelucha, University of Economics in Prague ; Galina Borisova Hale, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco; Ilias Lekkos, Piraeus bank, Athens; Dalton Gardimam, Banco Bradesco; M. Nicolas J. Firzli, Canadian European Economic Council; Yasuo Yamamoto, Mizuho Research Institute

Singapore is now considered to be the sixth least risky country in the world behind Norway, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Denmark and Sweden, according to a survey by Euromoney Magazine

Euromoney’s latest country risk results reflect political turmoil in the Middle East and the continued uncertainty within the Eurozone. The global recovery is in serious danger of being undermined by a host of financial and political risks. Andrew Mortimer reports.

Country risk rankings

Country risk March 2011: Middle East drops, sub-Saharan Africa rises

Despite growing concerns over Egypt’s ability to cope with a significant hit to its economy, the relative strength of the country’s finances mean that its leaders have some breathing space. But that may not be true for other countries in the region. Andrew Mortimer, Deputy Editor of Euromoney Country Risk, reports.

Five reasons for: 1. A Fragile Coalition: Unusually for Central Asia, the election in October of an interim government led by President Roza Otunbayeva was judged by international investors to have been a fair contest. However, it remains to be seen whether the new parliamentary system adopted since the deposing of Kurmanbek Bakiyev last summer can be made to work as a system of government. The coalition between the SDPK, Ata-Meken and Respublika parties has already fallen apart once in December after the Ata-Meken party leader, Omurbek Tekebayev, failed to win election as parliamentary speaker. The dispute was eventually resolved, but tensions remain over which parties will control key government posts. The number of parties in the already stretched coalition may soon increase to four if, as many observers predict, the nationalist Ata-Jurt party are invited to join. The party has close links to former President Bakiyev, but its strong electoral base in the south may help remove the perception that the government is northern-dominated.

Ghana will experience its first full year of oil production in 2011. Up to 120 thousand barrels of oil a day will be produced according to new research from Renaissance Capital. Oil production from the offshore Jubilee Field is being managed by a consortium lead by UK resources company Tullow Oil. This should propel real GDP growth to 10.5% in 2011, according to new research from Renaissance Capital. The government estimates that 250,000 barrels will be produced by 2013. Tax revenues generated from oil production are expected to contribute 1 percent of GDP this year, (approximately 300 million Euros). Oil exports are forecast to contribute 8-10 percent of GDP in 2011.

This year some changes have been made to the methodology for Euromoney’s bi-annual Country Risk survey. To make the ranking more subjective to the opinions of economists and research heads globally, the survey weightings have been changed to increase the influence of the political risk, economic performance and access to bank finance/capital markets categories. To obtain the overall country risk score, Euromoney assigns a weighting to six categories. These are political risk (30% weighting), economic performance (30%), structural assessment (10%), debt indicators (10%), credit ratings (10%) and access to bank finance/capital markets (10%).

Euromoney’s new-look country risk rankings reflect the seismic shifts that have taken place in international investment over the past three years. Markets that were once seen as growth opportunities are now becoming core investment propositions. Poorna Harjani reports.

Growth markets on course to overtake old safe havens

After a year that turned out better than anyone could have expected, 2010 began with a new bout of nerves on financial markets.

With the international economy more volatile than ever, global investors are paying more attention to country risk analysis. Risk looms both where you most and least expect it. In Euromoney’s latest rankings, the US has fallen out of the top 10. Jacqueline Cutler reports.

The impact of the credit crunch spread across the world over the past 12 months. Eastern Europe was badly hit, and the Middle East and Asia could no longer claim to be immune.

It could be the perfect storm – financial, macroeconomic and geopolitical risk are all on the rise. Risk is both where you anticipate it, and where you least expect it.

The US is in danger of dropping out of the top 10 in our semi-annual country risk survey as fears of an economic downturn and an uncertain political future dent analysts’ confidence.

Despite the fallout from US sub-prime woes, analysts are optimistic about prospects for the global economy, as commodities remain strong. But the US drops out of the top five in Euromoney’s latest country risk rankings. Oliver Hexter reports.

Event risk remains the biggest threat to the world’s economic prospects. But globalization means that, although economic imbalances might persist, the likelihood of a major worldwide correction is low.

The latest country risk poll reflects a global economy in good health, despite a period of stock market volatility and the prospect of a slowdown. But the Middle East and the high price of oil could have far-reaching implications, writes Florian Neuhof. Research by Paul Pedzinski.

Oil producers strike it rich, but long-term issues remain

The high price of oil highlights the fact that many economies are too reliant on raw materials exports, with governments creating unfavourable conditions for foreign investment through neglect or for political reasons. Florian Neuhof looks at the main drivers behind Euromoney’s latest country risk poll.

Country risk index: Most countries have better access to capital than ever before and sovereign credit ratings have been on the rise for the past three years. But an increasingly tense geopolitical environment has led to marked decline in this year's country risk ratings. Research and analysis by Paul Pedzinski.

A reveiw of 13 years of country risk, region by region. Emerging markets are now established as part of the fabric of international investment. But don't be fooled into thinking that the increased flow of investment follows a decline in risk. Research and analysis by Chloe Hayward.

Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey reflects a slight downgrade in the assessment of overall risk levels despite sovereign upgrades from rating agencies.

Country risk index: The latest Euromoney country risk survey, which for the first time incorporates data on perceptions of corruption, reflects continuing upheaval in the Middle East and Africa that is only partly compensated for by a favourable global trade environment.

Country risk index: The strong currency is damaging economic performance in the eurozone. But the outlook for some emerging markets is brighter, thanks to rising commodity prices and improving prospects for Asia. Paul Pedzinski and Andrew Newby report.