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April 2001

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LATEST ARTICLES

  • Jorge Gallardo, minister of finance and economy of the Republic of Ecuador, offers his views on sovereign debt restructuring.
  • HypoVereinsbank’s decision to combine its mortgage banks under one roof has revived the long-running debate about the validity of the specialist bank principle - the foundation of Germany’s system of mortgage banks.
  • In the first quarter of this year, the US Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by 150 basis points. But Nasdaq is down 25%, most European equity markets have fallen 15% to 20% and even the Dow, which had been flat for two years, is now off 14% for the year.
  • Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, America's two largest agency debt issuers, have now implemented the latest steps in their voluntary six-point programme agreed with Congress last year to reassure clients and the public of their safety and soundness.
  • David Komansky has found an innovative new way of getting analysts on his side - he insults them. The Merrill Lynch chief executive was taking questions from the floor after delivering his speech at the firm's second annual investor day conference in New York last month.
  • Minority investors in Russian companies have got their act together. Before the 1998 crisis foreigners were making enormous returns from a soaring stock market. The few that bought into problem companies, and saw their investments diluted, won the sympathy of the market but little else.
  • Economic and competitive pressures facing telecoms operators in Europe and internationally could, in turn, expose the equipment suppliers to heightened credit and legal risk.
  • For all the talk of US slowdowns, Argentine crises and prudent spending-policies, there was little evidence of belt-tightening at the annual meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) in Santiago in March.
  • A cooling in relations between Sergei Dubinin, former governor of the Russian central bank and now deputy chairman of Gazprom, and the EBRD lies behind the very public dispute between the bank and the management of Russia’s largest company.
  • The senior Botswanan banker who told Euromoney last year that he didn't care what rating Botswana got, as long as it was better than South Africa's, has finally got his wish.
  • Just after the piece of masonry connected with the side of the mongrel's head, a showdown ensued outside Banca Agricola's administrative headquarters. The pack of dogs, which seconds earlier had been snarling at pedestrians and leaving their own special deposits on the bank's doorstep, stared at their attacker. The man who threw the missile glared back.
  • Amid the extreme volatility in financial markets around the world so far this year, one of the biggest surprises has been the strength of the US debt markets. It has been a roaring start to the year. In January over $70 billion of high-grade corporate paper of between two and 30 years' maturity was issued. Short-term interest rate cuts helped create a steeper yield curve, which historically has been good for corporate bonds.
  • A little more than three months after Greece's entry into Emu, the country finds out that eurozone membership does not guarantee immunity from financial and other crises raging in neighbouring countries, such as the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Turkey. However, membership has helped reduce, if not eliminate, the sensitivity of its bond and equity markets to events in nearby emerging markets.
  • Issuer: RHM Finance Amount: £650 million Type of issue: whole-business securitization Date of issue: February 28 Arranger: JP Morgan
  • With south-east Asian economies recovering, governments are making cautious moves to restructure and expand their power industries to meet increased demand. None wants a California-style crisis. However, foreign investor interest is likely to be limited and financing must be provided by local debt and equity markets.
  • In a world where sovereign bondholders are disparate and disunited they are hard pressed to get a good deal if a defaulting sovereign and its bank advisers devise a unilateral exchange offer or other restructuring. With the often bitter experience of three such restructurings behind them, bondholders are getting together to protect their position.
  • On February 28, Indian finance minister Yashwant Sinha announced an annual budget that should have given a strong push to economic growth. Tax cuts, a sharp cut in interest rates and a raising of the ceiling on foreign portfolio investment in Indian companies should have given the stock markets the boost they badly needed.
  • The German Pfandbrief market, in particular the jumbo sector, has grown dramatically in recent years and assumed a larger and larger slice of European bond fund managers’ portfolios. But now many of the leading issuers face significant challenges in the underlying lending businesses that generate Pfandbrief collateral. The German mortgage banks are seeking non-traditional business opportunities, as well as starting to sort out their underperforming mortgage lending businesses. Volumes are likely to shrink.
  • Turkish banks will have to roll over $6 billion in syndicated debt this year. Though first-tier banks will be able to roll over, albeit at higher interest rates, life will not be so easy for medium-sized and smaller banks.
  • The Emerging Market Creditors Association is becoming nervous because Ecuador included exit constraints in its exchange offer. Now they have been used successfully once, they may be used again elsewhere.
  • Last month's announcement of a merger between DG Bank and GZ Bank was a long awaited step in the consolidation of the top level of Germany's cooperative banking sector.
  • Credit default swaps have proved a popular derivatives instrument with banks and other credit investors, but one possible trigger for default – the restructuring of a bond or loan – has cast uncertainty over the market. It is possible that liquidity might be damaged by the proliferation of different classes of instruments.
  • Romania is not planning to over-compensate for scarcity by issuing heavily. But it is clearly keen to establish itself in the international debt markets.
  • How times have changed. Only three years ago, any foreign investor planning to come to Indonesia would have been delighted to receive an appointment list featuring the following names: Bob Hasan, minister of trade and industry, Ginandjar Kartasasmita, co-ordinating minister for economics and finance, and Ali Wardhana, economic adviser to then president Suharto. If he also managed to see Siti Hardiyanti Rukmana, the president's daughter, he would probably have been immediately ready to sign on the dotted line.
  • The international strategic investor has become, and will continue to be, the key figure in eastern European privatization. The most effective sales seem to be those that have involved transferring a substantial equity stake to a foreign company.
  • Those central and eastern European countries that have pushed furthest and fastest with privatization have benefited from healthy government finances, restructuring and modernization of key industries and enhanced economic growth. That’s undeniable. But privatization remains ever politically contentious. Selling their banking systems to foreigners was hard to stomach, and now these countries are selling even more essential services, their energy generators and power distributors. If they can maintain the political will, at least governments will find buyers in these sectors, unlike in telecommunications.
  • Ruben Vardanian, president of Russia’s leading broker Troika Dialog, talks about the changing structure and behaviour of Russia’s companies and investment opportunities in them.
  • Egypt has weathered the economic storms of the past two years and looks set for steady growth over the next decade. But tough decisions must be taken on the exchange rate and privatization if the country is to achieve its long-term potential.
  • As the European credit market has grown in the past two years, banks have struggled to position themselves to capitalize on the opportunity. In a bid to win much more lucrative underwriting business than high-grade, frequent issuers ever offered, they have poured money into credit research, importing staff from the US, where credit analysis is a long-familiar concept, and plundering the rating agencies for talent. But the response from investors has been mixed. While sell-side credit analysts may offer a convenient shortcut to essential facts and figures about a company, fund managers are quick to highlight their lack of independence. In a volatile credit market, buyers of credit bonds are doing more of their own analysis in-house. Still, brokers insist that this doesn’t mean their role is under threat.
  • Understanding sovereign risk is the key to investing in central Europe, where foreign investors have an important role to play, says Ashmore Investment Management’s Jerome Booth