February 2008

The credit crunch has spurred an increase in the number of new hedge fund launches. Marco Masotti, partner in the fund formation practice at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison in New York, says he has had an increasing number of enquiries from new managers over the past two to three months. "Some are setting up as they wish to take advantage of the investment opportunities that have sprung up, others are leaving financial institutions to start on their own as they are unhappy with management changes, or bonuses at their financial institutions."

According to prime brokers in New York and London, funds of hedge funds are reducing the number of new managers they are taking on their books, and, in some instances, are reducing their existing portfolios of managers. One prime broker says that some funds of hedge funds have reduced their books of managers by 10% to 20% over the past two quarters.

US and European fund managers are snapping up stakes in Brazil’s small, specialist fund boutiques. They are looking to gain exposure to some of the world’s fastest-growing financial markets, diversify revenues, and capture the huge Brazilian shift out of bonds into equities and other assets. For their part, Brazilian managers are gaining know-how, technology and access to well-oiled marketing machines.

Proposals for establishing an EU-wide definition for bank capital have caused a stir in the arcane world of hybrid regulation.

Former chairman of the Federal Reserve Alan Greenspan has joined Paulson & Co as a member of its advisory board. He will provide advice to Paulson’s investment management team on financial markets in an exclusive arrangement. John Paulson, founder of the event-driven hedge fund, saw assets balloon from $7 billion to $28 billion last year because of correct calls on the sub-prime market.

Electronic broker Icap, the world’s biggest interdealer broker, acquired a 15% stake in the Bolsa de Productos de Chile (BPC) commodity exchange in January. This deal makes Icap the first international investor to have an ownership stake in a Chilean exchange, after acquiring the last three shares that belonged to BPC for Ps400 million ($800,000). This deal values the Chilean exchange at $5.6 million.

But lack of legislation might deter traditional investors.

Cognotec, an FX trading solutions provider, has formed a partnership with Saxo Bank. As a result, Saxo will stream liquidity to Cognotec’s RealStream Margin trading platform, which Cognotec developed specifically to target what it calls the professional retail market. In a press release, Brian Maccaba, Cognotec’s chief executive, said: "We are delighted to partner with a progressive bank such as Saxo Bank with its depth of FX experience, and particularly their leading profile in the professional retail trading market."

The strategic investment case for emerging European equities remains solid despite the deterioration of global markets caused by liquidity constraints in the banking system, says Martin Majdaniuk, manager of Baring Emerging Europe, which has $850 million under management and has returned 195.6% over the past three years.

2007 was a mixed year for Japan, with the stock market suffering from foreign investors uncertainty following the subprime crisis and the long-hoped for recovery of the economy still not fully underway.

Central and eastern European issuers are likely to find accessing the international bond markets a challenging experience in the coming months given the continued US-inspired global liquidity squeeze. Speaking at Euromoney’s conference on central and eastern Europe in Vienna, Fokion Karavias, general manager of the global markets division at Greece’s EFG Eurobank, says that on the back of a general flight to quality from emerging towards developed markets all borrowers will face tougher market conditions but that government borrowers should find it easiest to issue. "Sovereigns will need to pay much higher spreads, but they will be able to issue," says Karavias, adding that even potential Euromarket debutantes such as Albania and Azerbaijan could get maiden issues away if they are prepared to pay the higher market clearing levels being demanded by investors.

During the course of 2007 launching deals went from being the ­easiest in history to perhaps as tough as it has ever been. But the finance industry continued to show it could produce the goods whatever the market’s conditions. These are the deals where issuers and advisers got their timing and structure just right.

The Argentine government under the leadership of Cristina Kirchner will have to reach a resolution with the holdout investors from the sovereign’s debt restructuring of 2005 if it is to avoid financing issues, according to analysts.

Fitch Ratings has placed Sigma Finance’s senior note programme on negative watch, in a move affecting $31.6 billion of medium-term notes rated triple A and some $2.3 billion of F1 rated CP.

Euromoney has been informed by a source claiming to have been close to an eight-figure deal that cash-rich Saudi Islamic bank Al Rajhi entered into with troubled US bank Bear Stearns just before Christmas.

FSA gets mixed response to proposals on disclosure while LSE plans to trade the instruments on its orderbook.

Bolsa de Mercadorias & Futuros, the Brazilian derivatives exchange, has announced that it will introduce a new electronic platform to trade spot US dollar/Brazilian real. The venture is a joint initiative with the Brazilian Federation of Banks and the Banco Central do Brasil. BM&F says it is currently responsible for the registration and settlement of about 95% of transactions in the domestic dollar/real market. About 85% of this is traded OTC. The exchange says the addition of transparency and easier access to the market will improve efficiency and facilitate the execution of arbitrage and hedge strategies. The platform is scheduled to go live in the second quarter of 2008.

A strong pipeline of deals keeps ECM bankers optimistic for 2008.

We asked leading debt market officials what products they thought would be hot in 2008.

In a sign of growing economic cooperation between Russia and China, VTB, Russia’s second-largest bank, has become the first bank from the country to receive a licence to open a branch in China. VTB’s Shanghai branch will primarily service Russia-China trade, big industrial inter-state projects and the investment projects of Russian and Chinese companies.

Regulator considers allowing foreign exchanges to operate in the US without registering and rules to make it easier for foreign issuers.

Redecard, a merchant servicing business in Brazil that Citi holds a majority stake in, plans to undertake a follow-on secondary offering. The announcement came within hours of Citi announcing write-downs of $18.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2007.

The average cost of using a prime broker is slowly increasing, say those in the industry, but do hedge funds really care?

We all know that Iraq is bad but to hear many experts tell it, Afghanistan is the genuine headache of the age, military and economic. With the struggling economy as much a battleground for hearts and minds as the caves of Helmand province or Tora Bora, you’d expect the brightest minds at the IMF and World Bank to be poring over the stricken country, keeping vital but fragile institutions such as the central bank tightly clasped under their intensive care, right? And, with $30 billion of western aid – your taxes – sloshing around the place, at least making sure its books are done properly. Think again.

After a stop-start year of asset-backed securities issuance in 2007, Fitch Ratings expects European emerging market securitizations to perform comparatively well in 2008. However, it says that a prolonged credit squeeze could hit demand for structured bonds. "Borrowers with hard-currency refinancing needs have so far weathered the liquidity crunch remarkably well but their funding needs will become more acute if the international capital markets remain closed for another two or three quarters, and local markets are not deep enough to provide alternative funding," says Jaime Sanz, head of European emerging market securitization at Fitch in London.

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez raised the regulated price of milk and threatened to seize dairies that tried to charge more as he attempted to increase milk supplies.

Structured finance departments have taken a bit of a battering in the past few months but in southern Africa there is still belief in and appetite for the business. The domestic market in South Africa is growing rapidly, partly to meet political pressure to transfer assets to people with little money and no equity. Electricity shortages might well also be a key driver of new deal flows.

Lehman’s new loan modification programme reveals its pessimistic view of the UK housing market.

Goldman Sachs has taken a minority stake in Kiev-based investment bank Dragon Capital via a share capital increase. "This development is recognition of the professionalism and success of our 120-strong multinational team and of our track record of triple-digit returns on equity," says Tomas Fiala, Dragon Capital’s managing director and controlling shareholder.

Hedge funds are on the verge of large-scale direct recruitment of talented graduates, a recent student-organized LSE alternative investments conference suggests. Neil Wilson reports.