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January 2006

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LATEST ARTICLES

  • Congratulations to the winner of the inaugural Euromoney award for media relations. This bank, before pitching a CDO as part of our deals of the year research, invited the relevant Euromoney journalists to sign a beautifully drafted, five-page confidentiality agreement.
  • Although Asia remains in the vanguard of private banking growth, a new survey from Boston Consulting Group highlights key challenges ahead.
  • The Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported record FX volume on December 12. A total of 872,271 futures and option contracts were traded, representing $96 billion in notional value. This was 16.6% up on the previous record of 748,050 contracts, set on June 8 2005. Electronic transactions on the exchange’s Globex platform accounted for 71% of the turnover. Even though calendar rolls into the March contract inflated the total, if the CME can maintain levels at anywhere near the record, the debate on whether or not FX can migrate to an exchange-traded environment will grow louder.
  • “OK, if there were a big credit event, and if it coincided with one of the dealers going down, there would be a problem. How many ‘ifs’ do they want?”
  • The security for the sixth ministerial conference was intense but Korean protesters were still able to set off a police fishing operation and the director-general did not escape a barracking, while residents wonder what it’s all for.
  • Stephan Theissing is the treasurer of Allianz as well as its head of corporate finance. He’s the man that investment bankers, looking for a share of the global financial group’s substantial capital markets activity, need to impress. Peter Koh finds out what they have to do to win his favour.
  • India’s private banking industry is booming. Indians living abroad and at home want to invest in the domestic markets. This is providing opportunities for local and international private banks. Kautilya Shastri reports.
  • “What surprised me when I became minister of finance was that we had the debt situation, but nobody wanted to talk about it. We need to first explain how we got into this position before we can talk about how we will get out of it.”
  • Private banks are enjoying a period of growth as financial markets improve and global wealth increases. Long-term success will lie in offering a broader range of products linked to investment banking, while ensuring the high levels of service that clients now demand. Euromoney reports on the drivers of success in its annual survey.
  • Republic’s next challenge is to revamp its domestic debt portfolio.
  • China Aviation Oil (Singapore) Corporation (CAO) the Singapore-listed subsidiary of mainland Chinese aviation fuel importer China Aviation Oil Holding Company (CAOH) announced in December a successful debt restructuring including significant investments from BP Investments Asia and Temasek Holdings.
  • A recent report by BreakingViews has revived the familiar story that EBS is up for sale, claiming that the company was hawking itself around via its adviser, Citigroup. The £1 billion ($1.8 billion) valuation that BreakingViews has put on EBS looks a little toppy and might well scare potential suitors away. Back-of-the-fag-packet calculations suggest that EBS captures about 20% of the total spot market. As FX volumes are still expected to grow, and EBS could quite conceivably increase its market share, someone with deep pockets might well decide it is worth a punt, even at £1 billion. However, whether its multiple owners will ever agree on the attractions of a suitor remains to be seen.
  • Africa:
  • Everyone seems to be making the decision to seek alpha in foreign exchange, but what does that entail? Leading figures in the FX market debate how to combine systematic and discretionary risk allocation, the importance of choosing the right managers, understanding volatility and whether or not the sell side has helped the transition to alpha.
  • In an historic move in late November, the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, conducted the first ever swap of renminbi with the US dollar, a move that it intends to repeat fortnightly.
  • After earlier forecasting that European share prices would rise in 2006, Standard & Poor’s equity research now expects a 7% fall. The change in outlook is the result of the European Central Bank’s decision to jump on the bandwagon of global monetary policy tightening.
  • Innovation and wider investor participation continue apace.
  • Last year was tumultuous for Ecuador. A president was ousted, a spat with the World Bank threatened to get out of hand and there were genuine fears that the sovereign might default. At long last, though, there are signs that Ecuador might be on the path to recovery, not least because of the strong support that the sovereign received for its first bond issue in six years.
  • In early December HSBC and Deutsche Bank simultaneously engaged in a charity event to raise funds for London’s Great Ormond Street Hospital’s development fund. In order to entice its workers to stump up some cash, the two banks had a number of celebrities tour their trading floors.
  • Investors seem to like Mexico’s new investment fund, Impulsora del Desarrollo Económico de America Latina (Ideal), owned by the country’s richest man, Carlos Slim.
  • In December, the UK’s Financial Services Authority held a meeting with the Association of British Insurers setting out its position on securitization and reinsurance for life insurers. All year there had been talk of monetization being a big story. Legal and General has been rumoured to have mandated a structuring mandate, and Standard Life was looking at both new business strain and value in force (VIF) structures before being overwhelmed with the process of demutualization. There has been talk of VIF securitizations coming from France and the Netherlands. However, some originators argue that the cost effectiveness of this approach is far from proved and question whether the six months or so spent working on structures is worth it. Also the competitiveness of reinsurance has improved dramatically in response to the capital market, especially for one-year maturity. But for a five-year maturity, a reinsurance treaty is twice as expensive as a capital markets solution. It appears that the FSA is trying to give greater guidance to issuers and arrangers on how to streamline the process; there are hopes for as many as four deals in 2006.
  • The markets revere individualists who are prepared to follow their hunches – think Soros, Buffett or Kerkorian. But are the many actually smarter than the few?
  • With their core jobs as trustees and paying agents commoditized, corporate trustees are relishing the chance to carve out a new role for themselves on structured credit deals.
  • As economic growth slows in 2006, more businesses are expected to fail, with the biggest increases likely in Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US.
  • Weak execution caused by the end-of-year rush to issue was mostly limited to the CMBS sector. Execution lower down the capital structure suffered the most, with triple B notes hitting three-month Euribor plus 100 basis points, a level not seen for more than 18 months.
  • Excitement over corporate hybrids has been replaced by hopes of a boom in M&A refinancing.
  • Nicolás Aguzín’s appointment as chairman of JPMorgan’s Latin American franchise heralds a new strategy in the region. Gone is the big picture approach; now the emphasis is on getting the nitty-gritty right and building long and lasting corporate relationships. Felix Salmon reports.
  • Management consultants are as famed for their work ethic as for their innovative ideas. But the strain of working long hours and spending long periods away from home at clients’ offices takes its toll. Consulting firms lose anything between 15% and 40% of their consultants every year.
  • Greece’s economy grew faster than expected in 2005. But its government faces a major challenge in 2006: to maintain its strong growth rate while complying with the EU directive to cut its budget deficit by the end of the year. By Dimitris Kontogiannis.
  • It was set up by private bankers. It is run by private bankers, and it is built around private bankers. The brightest talents are flocking to it. Does EFG International have the model to take wealth management by storm? Peter Lee investigates.