–38 the average percentage return from IPOs globally.

The European secondary loan market was bracing itself for a painful year-end in December as balance-sheet-driven forced selling started to bite.

The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has secured more than $12 million in restitution and civil monetary penalties against nine Florida defendants in settlement of an anti-fraud lawsuit related to the marketing of illegal off-exchange FX options.

Hedge funds were ill-prepared for a downturn. Survivors of the shake-out will need to develop their business management skills to cope, says Nick Evans, editor of EuroHedge.

The Norwegian government and Eksportfinans have announced a facility that will provide long-term financing for the country’s export sector.

Kazakhstan’s bankers are taking a defiant stance towards the financial crisis. Despite the fact that important sectors of the economy such as banking and construction have been hit hard by the global credit crisis, which has cut off the supply of cheap foreign funding that backed their rapid expansion, investment bankers believe there is still plenty of potential business to be fought over.

A GDP growth rate of 8% has long been touted by Chinese authorities as well as commentators as an important threshold; should the rate slip lower, the argument runs, the slowdown might trigger dangerous social problems. Analysts at foreign banks have universally tended to avoid predicting that this might happen but an interesting trend to watch for in 2009 will be the emergence of the ‘below-eight-percenters’ if conditions in China do not improve. Early out of the gates was Qu Hongbin, analyst at HSBC, who wrote in December that while China’s Rmb4 trillion ($2.16 billion) stimulus could lift growth above 8% in the second half of the year, "weaker growth in H1 ‘09 will drag the whole year average to 7.8%". Watch this space.

South Africa’s central bank cut rates for the first time in three years in December. The repo rate was lowered to 11.5% compared with an annual inflation rate of 12.4% in October. The central bank expects inflation to fall within the 3% to 6% target range by the third quarter of next year. Lower oil prices and consumer demand have helped tame inflation. However, lower gold and platinum prices have also hit South Africa’s exports.

What does the future hold for Mexico’s Banamex, which Citi owns? Although the US bank claims that Banamex is important to its recovery, after its sub-prime losses, many bankers and analysts in Mexico are sceptical. Speculation is rife about the future of the bank.

Dubai investment bank Shuaa Capital has announced that it will cut 9% of its workforce, or 21 jobs. "Our approach to managing our expenses is driven by the reality imposed on us from external market conditions and how we see our businesses performing next year," said Iyad Duwaji, chief executive. "We have a clear plan that reallocates resources to areas where we see demand in 2009, such as the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and increasing our market share in brokerage and asset management," he said. Diminishing Gulf issuance has harmed Shuaa’s revenue. Moody’s is reviewing the firm’s rating for downgrade.

Not all doom and gloom for 2009, though capacity will be tested.

Biggest names in European securitization research culled.

Even in tough capital markets, open only to the few, it’s still possible to craft good deals, attract new investors, bolster balance sheets and stave off disaster. For all their past sins and excesses, investment banks – the good ones at least – will prove themselves invaluable over the coming 12 months

Government support has prevented a systemic run on the banks, but funds are not getting through.

The president of the European Central Bank is at the centre of the global financial storm. He knows his actions are crucial to the survival of the entire global financial system. He gives his most in-depth interview since the collapse of Lehman Brothers to Clive Horwood and Mark Johnson.

Markets are positioned for something akin to the Great Depression. With so much doom and gloom in the air, now is the right time to buy equities.

Five years ago, Euromoney was catching up over lunch with a senior figure at a large European bank. Something was troubling him. His private bankers were reporting that emissaries from a large US-based hedge fund had been approaching wealthy European clients telling them that they had unearthed a secret formula to extract regular, risk-free returns from the stock markets.

Non-performing loans will haunt the People’s Republic in 2009.

Madoff should mark the end of feeder funds.

Relationships count more than ever in the world of equity trading.

Otherwise the country faces a crisis akin to 1998.

Having negotiated away their covenant protection in the boom years, lenders find themselves in a weak negotiating position in the bust.

Levels quoted make no market sense whatsoever.