ASIA

CP BACKSTOP FACILITIES

Enronitis

RUSSIA

A lot is riding on Brazil’s success. It has always been the dominant economy in south America but until Argentina collapsed it did not have to play a leadership role in sustaining investor sentiment about the region. Today Brazil must rise to its economic challenges or be held responsible not only for its own stagnation but for sinking south America as an economically significant continent.

It's a common assumption, in the US and abroad, that Americans believe they have the best financial system in the world and that it is the most open, the most progressive, and the best model for others to follow. But consider this statement from an American institutional investor. "You know, I really don't like the Vorstand-style of governance favoured in parts of Europe," he told Euromoney last month. "But maybe it does have some advantages over our system." His beef is simple: "The US CEO has become more and more the fox guarding the hen house," he explains. "And he is enriching himself and his executives in the process. More and more companies are being run for the benefit not of the shareholders but of the people running the firm."

US economic recovery is clearly under way. But is it a profitless recovery? Some bears say so. I don't agree. This year, corporate profits will not rise as much as the consensus forecasts. That's why I reckon that US Inc and the equity markets will recover at a canter rather than a gallop. But they will still rise sufficiently to support a 10% to 15% rise in equity prices by the year-end.

Let's hope John Mack is not too downhearted at his failure to lure his old friend Walid Chammah away from Morgan Stanley. It would appear to be the first setback the chief executive of CSFB has had since replacing Allen Wheat last July.

After years of complaints from regulators and private-sector rivals that Germany’s state banks are taking unfair advantage of public guarantees, the issue is in sight of being resolved. The EC has decreed that the Landesbanken will have to do without this subsidy within three years. Most state bank officials are confident that they can find new ways to compete but others are not so sure.

VENEZUELA

The US is in recession, or, at best, slowly coming out of it. As with all recessions, some things remain constant. First, company executives, bankers and investors generally don't want to admit there is a problem. They'll convince themselves that there's a new dynamic in the market that this time will make recession impossible, avoidable or at least short-lived. They'll hold off sacking people. They'll blame it on another sector of the market - in this case, they say, it started with the bursting of the tech bubble in April 2000 - and swear it won't affect them. And they'll refuse to take action to protect their companies, such as shoring up balance sheets, because they look back with nostalgia to the time when their stock prices were higher - two weeks ago, two months ago, six months ago...

David Komansky, Merrill Lynch's chairman and chief executive, has confirmed what many market commentators, and Merrill employees, have been expecting for months: he plans to step down as CEO before his official retirement date of April 2004. He does intend to stay on as chairman until that time.

Investment bank research has taken a further battering with Schroders, the asset manager, criticizing the role of analysts in the new economy bubble.

The days of promiscuous big spending on IT may be over for investment banks. However, because the splurge was often ill-directed and uncoordinated there’s still a lot to be done – and spent – to patch up old mistakes, deal with major developments such as T+1 clearance and upgrade neglected back-office systems. Worryingly, most banks still seem unwilling to cooperate with rivals on pooled systems and the development of common standards.

With worries about US corporate credit scaring bond market investors far more than Argentina’s default, emerging-market issues have retained their popularity. Emerging-market debt offers low volatility, rising prices and decent volumes. Latin issuers remain in the vanguard. The only problem is that their bonds are beginning to look expensive.

Shareholders in global telecom companies don’t want to hear about Latin American expansion any more. That leaves the way clear for smart, well-financed local operators.

Axa gave its brokers a nasty shock last year. It decided that it was inefficient for local offices to continue to deal with local firms and chose instead to select a much smaller number of global brokers. All of its brokers had to complete a hefty questionnaire explaining why they were up to the job of servicing one of the world’s biggest investing institutions. If relationship banks couldn’t fulfil various criteria, including access to senior staff, they were dropped from the list. And it’s not easy to get back on it.

Convertibles bankers are fretting about the lack of issuance so far this year. It’s hardly surprising, it was one of the most active markets in 2001. Some are hoping that the need to raise money quickly will help boost volumes but issuers may prove cautious.

Privatization in India has accelerated under firm government leadership but the process has been complicated by doubts about the involvement of state companies as buyers and government provisions to prevent monopolies developing. Foreign buyers have been notably absent, not least because of restrictions on the size of their holdings and other government provisions. Looming in the background is also the threat of a growing populist political tendency.

INDONESIA

Six months ago rising oil prices, the bursting of the new economy bubble and weaker financial markets were increasing the dangers of a recession even before the blow of September 11. Although the direct effects of the attacks have been relatively small and sector-specific, the effect on business confidence is likely to be large in the short term. In our latest review of country prospects Euromoney's panel of experts has revised down average global projections for 2002-03 for 79 countries and has revised up 105. On balance, consensus growth forecasts indicate strong resurgence in 2003.

Issuer: Napocor International Finance TrustAmount: $500 millionLaunched: February 1 2002, put on hold February 4 2002Lead manager: Bear Stearns

There is huge potential in business-method patents, and the financial sector in the US has begun to realize this. As in so many other areas of intellectual property, Europe is being needlessly left behind.

Seasoned international bankers believe that changes are now necessary in the area of off-balance-sheet financing - an activity that has exploded out of all recognition in the past decade or two. "Deregulation started 20 years ago and has gone way too far," says Minos Zombanakis, a well-known former Euromarket banker who is now an international financial consultant. "To allow off-balance-sheet financing of such enormous amounts is ridiculous. Banks use off-balance-sheet structures all the time to avoid capital adequacy." He adds: "The whole idea of off balance sheet is wrong. Consolidation is a necessity. You can use any kinds of structures during the year that you want, for administrative purposes or whatever, but when it comes to reporting, you must consolidate. That is the only way to protect the investor."

EUROPEAN BONDS

E-FINANCE

As German media empire Kirch begins to buckle and telecom firms are again making headlines for all the wrong reasons, contingent liabilities are suddenly a hot topic for credit fund managers. What’s particularly worrying them is the number and size of put options that might force cash-strapped companies to overpay for assets.

Deutsche Börse’s move to take full control of international central securities depository Clearstream highlights the divergence between banks, exchanges and clearers that would like to see an integrated utility-style system of settlement for European securities markets and those exchanges such as Deutsche Börse that see such operations as a way of generating value for their own shareholders.

When Forexster launched, it said it wouldn’t be just any new forex trading platform. It would revolutionize the market, taking banks out of forex trades and enabling clients to deal directly with each other. Banks and existing platforms scoffed at the idea, saying that while that model was attractive, the complex structure of credit lines involved would never work. Forexster begs to differ. Now it is filing for a patent to prove it. Still the banks think this is pie in the sky but if the patent works it could damage banks and rival platforms.

The imminent implementation of T+0 settlement for foreign exchange ought in theory to be an all-round blessing for market participants, reducing Herstatt risk. Some banks will, however, fall outside the system, raising the possibility of a two-tier market with differential spreads. Members will also incur new risks.