The roller coaster in emerging markets threatens one of the few consistent bright spots for investment banks since the global financial crisis. If the rout spreads, they could be faced with a sharp decline in FICC trading and a collapse in deal flow. But bankers remain remarkably sanguine. Could this be the sell-off that finally proves the EM asset class has come of age?

Rates buyers are moving back into Portuguese government bonds as yields fall, growth returns and exports boom. The country finished the capital markets part of its 2014 funding programme in the first two weeks of the year and now looks forward to a possible clean exit from the bailout, which would have been unthinkable six months ago. That would be a political triumph for Portugal and the Troika. But it might be a step too far.

In attempting to curb the excesses of the leveraged lending market, regulators might end up pushing it into the arms of the very private equity sponsors they are trying to rein in.

Some have dubbed Antony Jenkins' reign at Barclays a work in transition. To me, it is undoubtedly a mess in transition.

Peso and exchange reserves have taken a tumble, interest rates have spiked and the money supply has tripled, yet analysts remain confident the economy is fundamentally sound. Can president Kirchner get full control, or will she leave it to the next government?

Pravin Gordhan says that he has given a counter-cyclical boost to South Africa and built up its underlying growth potential. But with capital flowing out, what more can the finance minister do to cut the country’s twin deficits?

Sells London markets business; Africa build-out continues

Demographics are the forgotten dimension of investment. The experience of Japan suggests we should pay more heed.

By coincidence, also in February, Euromoney hosted its annual awards dinner for the private banking industry and Tom Kalaris, Barclays’ former head of wealth management, sat at the top table. Kalaris resigned from Barclays last June. I have always liked Tom and will watch with interest how his career progresses. The compere for the dinner was Alastair Campbell, director of communications from 1997 to 2003 for prime minister Tony Blair. Campbell offered one key nugget of advice to the group of assembled financiers: "In order to win the public relations battle, you have to convince public opinion that banks and bankers provide a real service that individuals and the economy need." Obviously, Campbell is correct, but is anyone listening in the banks’ luxurious executive suites?

The data is misleading, say analysts; the region’s markets are fundamentally fine. Institutional investors are sticking around, but local companies are finding that they need a convincing story to attract international money.

Turkey has been in a state of turmoil for the past year. The political troubles are home-grown; the economic woes have come from abroad. Both problems appear worse than they really are and present opportunities for those who can hold their nerve.

The country’s economy has a good growth record, but it is vulnerable to the effects of Fed tapering and rising interest rates. Can it tap the market for $1.5 billion this year? The authorities certainly think the nation’s story is good enough to guarantee it.

Bank CEOs barely humoured corporate treasurers in the past. The promise of big-ticket investment banking business meant the corporate C-suite was priority number one. But as those revenues slide, treasurers and the transaction banking business they control have become a top priority. A new banking battleground has been drawn.

The EU elections are likely to deliver big gains for populist parties of the left and right, namely those opposed to the European project and/or further integration.

Issuance in ‘next financial year’; deal likely to be one-off.

Bourse set to launch this year; elecoms listings in doubt.

I hear that an article published recently by Reuters is causing waves at Morgan Stanley. The thrust of the piece – entitled ‘Wall Street’s most eligible banker Fleming waits for a suitor’ – is that 50-year-old Greg Fleming, the head of Morgan Stanley’s wealth and investment management business, might succeed James Gorman as chief executive. According to the piece, Fleming is also a flight risk as he possesses the talents to be chief executive of another financial firm.

The birth of Azerbaijan’s capital markets has been continually predicted, but has never come to pass. Now a tiny IPO is raising renewed hopes of access to one of the richest frontier markets. Will this time be different?

Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey have more in common than macroeconomic numbers.

Volcker damage contained; lending guidelines could lead to shortage of assets.

As three UK banks issue profit warnings springing from litigation costs and mis-selling charges, it takes a newcomer to show the value of good customer service.

"In the 2008 to 2012 cycle, emerging markets were providing the growth dynamic. Now, because you have slightly better growth in the west, it doesn’t mean that all emerging markets are basket cases."

"Emerging markets to investors are a bit like bankers to taxi drivers — not exactly flavour of the month."

Chinese bank’s London purchase likely to be followed by other acquisitions in foreign markets.

The new corporate gatekeepers know how important they are, and are demanding more from their banks.

Vikram Pandit, the former chief executive of Citi, who was reportedly ousted for damaging company relations with regulators and eroding investor confidence, is shopping his services around as, you guessed it, a Mr Fix-it for large corporations trying to improve corporate culture amid regulatory and legal problems.

Competition and jeopardy are on the way back in EM debt issuance.

Investors, bankers and policymakers were caught off-guard in early 2014 as new depths of pessimism about emerging markets were plumbed.

Post-election policies still hard to predict; fiscal discipline key to investments.