October 2008
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LATEST ARTICLES
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The flamboyant stage presence and forthright views of Kotaro Tamura are becoming something of an annual highlight at Euromoney’s Japan Capital Markets Congress, and this year the LDP senator in charge of the sovereign wealth fund committee surpassed himself during an onstage interview that at times reduced a packed auditorium to helpless, if somewhat nervous, laughter.
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The US government warned that failure to pass the Paulson plan into law would lead to disaster. In the worst-case outcome, that could mean wholesale nationalization of the finance industry. With Frannie and AIG, and a banking system that fails without dramatic Fed intervention, the Bush administration has already made a start. Peter Lee looks at alternative strategies that might prove sharper than Tarp.
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The US economy is far more resilient than some commentators think. The present crisis also creates an opportunity for the Treasury to help itself and many pension funds.
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Greek banks’ share prices plummeted in 2008 – even before Lehman collapsed. Despite this, as well as higher inflation, slower economic growth and more taxes, they have ploughed on with ambitious regional expansion plans. Can Greek banks defy the global financial crisis? Dominic O’Neill reports from Athens.
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Analysts at JPMorgan suggest that prime money market funds, which had $2 trillion of assets under management in early September and are a leading provider of short-term liquidity to the banking system, suffered between $350 billion and $400 billion of redemptions after the Prime Reserve fund broke the buck following losses on its $385 million holdings of Lehman commercial paper.
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Short of a radical restructuring of the banking sector, the US government bailout will prompt a market rally. However the longer-term effects will be deleterious.
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Freddie Mac is seeking to reassure holders of its debt that the preferred stock purchase agreement announced by US Treasury secretary Henry Paulson will protect them, "regardless of who wins the elections".
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Insurers troubles spill over causing retail panic.
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It will take months if not years before we know with any certainty who the ultimate winners from the financial crisis will be. But having purchased the US businesses of Lehman Brothers it seems that Barclays Capital will be among them.
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Deutsche Bank is taking a 40% strategic stake in Russian fund manager UFG Invest, one of the top 10 players in the Russian asset management industry. Under the terms of the agreement between the two firms, Deutsche will have the option to increase its holding to 100%. Deutsche’s existing fund business, DWS Investments, will be combined with UFG Invest and the new entity will be branded Deutsche UFG Capital Management. "[This] transaction further strengthens our role in Russia," says Igor Lojevsky, chief executive of Deutsche Bank Russia.
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The outcry against and restrictions on short-selling of financials stocks were unjustified and ill-advised and will have a deleterious impact.
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Dubai Islamic Bank has appointed a new chief executive. Abdulla Al Hamli moves to the position from his role as chief of operations and information technology at the bank. Al Hamli has worked at DIB for nine years. For more than 10 years before that, he was director of information systems at the Dubai Ports Authority and Jebel Ali Free Zone.The previous chief executive, Saad Abdul Razak, left in late 2007 to join the Investment Corporation of Dubai.
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The rapid and decisive intervention of European national authorities to prop up vulnerable banks might well limit the extent of European banks’ funding problems.
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It might have been the most turbulent month in memory for global stock markets but equity capital raisings did not grind to a halt. In fact, September has seen a spate of equity raisings from banks despite, or rather because of, the fact that they are at the centre of the market’s turbulence.
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Bans on short sales, of naked shorting, and variations thereof were the order of the day in the second half of September as countries around the world attempted to stop stock markets falling.
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Onexim Group, one of Russia’s largest private investment funds, with more than $25 billion in assets, has entered into a strategic agreement whereby it will acquire a 50% interest in Renaissance Capital, the market-leading investment bank in Russia, the CIS and Africa. Commenting on the transaction, Stephen Jennings, Renaissance Group chief executive, says: "The partnership with Onexim creates a financial powerhouse with the resources, skills and ambition to be the clear leader in all its markets."
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As the region’s stock markets tumble and the international bond market shows no sign of opening, Latin American companies in need of cash are turning to plan B. "The loan market is still open in Brazil. There is also securitization. At the moment there is a plan B beyond the international bond market that will work for many Latin companies, especially for those in Brazil," Dan Vallimarescu, head of debt capital markets at Santander, told Euromoney just days after Lehman Brothers’ collapse. "Several issuers are getting a bank deal done quietly," says Chris Gilfond, joint head of Latin American debt at Citi. "People are also staying local and/or regional. For example, in Mexico and Peru the local debt capital markets business has been doing very well."
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The relaunch of FX futures by Ice finally provides the CME with some proper competition.
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One of the curiosities of the financial meltdown has been the conspicuous absence of China’s leading commercial banks and brokerages in picking up bargains from the wreckage.
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Chris Lees has been officially unveiled as the new head of financial institutions group origination in debt capital markets at Citi. He reports to Eirik Winter, head of DCM EMEA. Lees previously spent much of his career at Citi in the European syndicate team where he worked in the high-grade sector. His appointment fills a gap in the origination wall chart at Citi since Alan Patterson moved to run its capital markets product group in March 2007.
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Market share expected to be more evenly spread.
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Millennium Global Investments has been awarded a A$450 million ($370 million) active currency overlay mandate by Vision Super, the A$4.3 billion Australian superannuation fund. The fund manages defined contribution and defined benefit schemes on behalf of 100,000 members and provides superannuation and retirement incomes to local government authorities, primarily in the State of Victoria.
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Exchanges try to steal a march on their rivals.
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JPMorgan has unveiled a new e-commerce offering. Developed internally, the platform, MorganDirect, can be used to trade spot, forwards and outrights from either desktops or BlackBerries, 24 hours a day. MorganDirect will provide streaming rates for more than 300 currency pairs and the bank says that other products and assets will be added in due course. Elsewhere, JPMorgan has replaced AIG as the central counterparty on Currenex’s FXTrades platform.
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Data provider Markit announced at the end of September that it was planning to offer free access to its daily CDS pricing data to non-clients for a limited time. It also announced that buy-side accounts that wanted to confirm index trades would be given free access to its RED (reference entity database) system – again for a limited time. This largesse follows Markit’s decision earlier this year to offer free access to RED for buy-siders that only trade lightly in the CDS market. The moves will be welcomed by the smaller, second-tier institutions involved in the CDS market that have struggled to get access to information following the credit events at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and WaMu.
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Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela, ordered the US ambassador, Patrick Duddy, to leave the country last month. Chávez accused the Bush administration of planning a coup to overthrow him. Alleged conspirators have been detained. The Venezuelan president also recalled his envoy in Washington. Chávez said: "When there is a new government in the US, we’ll send an ambassador." These moves came shortly after the US government expelled the Bolivian ambassador after the Bolivians sent the US ambassador home. Chávez is a close ally of Bolivia’s president, Evo Morales. Both are antagonists of president George W Bush.
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Fund suggests some European financials are an opportunity.
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UBS heads the Dealogic league table for investment banking fees earned between January and September this year. The Swiss bank, which was awarded the title of best investment bank in Asia in Euromoney’s Awards for Excellence 2008, took a 5% market share with $323 million in fees during the nine-month period. Citi and Goldman Sachs were second and third respectively.
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It was not only US investment banks such as Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch that found themselves in dire trouble in September. In the middle of the month, Russia’s KIT Finance found itself unable to meet repo obligations and had to hurriedly find a strategic buyer to prevent itself following Lehman’s fate. According to market sources, KIT Finance failed to settle repo obligations worth about Rb6 billion to Rb8 billion ($153 million to $230 million) In the end the company was rescued by Leader Asset Management, the pension fund arm of Russian energy company Gazprom.
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The Spanish central bank prevented its financial institutions from investing heavily in the US sub-prime related securities. But Spain’s mid-tier banks are heavily exposed to a local property sector in crisis. Can they ride out the downturn? Peter Koh reports.