September 1998
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LATEST ARTICLES
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When Russia announced a moratorium on its debt payments and a rouble devaluation, Latin American debt traders had only one thing to say: "The markets are closed."
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Only floating exchange rates will allow the world to steer between the Scylla of capital controls and the Charybdis of recurrent financial crisis and wealth destruction, argues Bernard Connolly.
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When Hotman Hutapea, Indonesia's premier bankruptcy advocate, presented his first case to the new commercial court on September 1, he set telephones ringing in bank offices all over town. "Now they believe it," says one senior banker. "They see they'd better do a deal - or else."
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The men charged with sorting out Korea's sickly, debt-laden corporate sector are making many of the right noises, but old habits are proving hard to break. A year after they went bust, Kia is still churning out cars and Jinro is still brewing the nation's favourite tipple. Jack Lowenstein reports on the dangerous brew of nationalism, legal failings and bureaucratic intransigence which is preventing Korea Inc from getting back on its feet.
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It's a measure of the turmoil in world markets that not a single bank was at first prepared to supply the forfaiting rates used by Euromoney in its calculation of these country-risk rankings. So fast were things changing that even these usually stable indicators became too volatile. Banks supplied them on request on a day-by-day basis to clients an indication of how difficult trade finance, the lubricant of the real economy, was becoming.
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Eugene Black argues the case for an alternative method of funding the IMF that would enable it to tap the private markets and reduce the need to return to member states for additional funds.
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Profits are down, salaries are being sliced, portfolios are moving into cash, buyers are getting choosy about the brokers they use. Is it all doom and gloom? Not if you're smart. Markets that were overbroked are losing the dross: that means new opportunities for firms with good counterparty risk. And research is getting better as brokers fight to sell their services to investors. Steven Irvine sketches in the background to the Euromoney/Global Investor 10th annual Asian broker survey.
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They remain small and vulnerable to outside shocks, but the Middle East's stock markets have grown substantially over the past few years and, as Alex Mathias reports, are attracting a broader range of investors. Research by Luciano. Mondellini
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Outside it is a bright, warm summer's day and the narrow streets of Prague are thronged with tourists. Inside the faceless municipal building that houses the new Czech Securities Commission (CSC) the light is thick and gloomy and there is an almost unnatural quiet. It may reveal a sense of anticipation. Equally, it could be foreboding.
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The bad times are far from over for Hong Kong. The financial crisis that has engulfed Asia is continuing to put enormous pressure on the once-vibrant local banking sector. Profits are down and bad and doubtful loans have soared. But in spite of the deteriorating operating environment, bankers are scrambling to maximize existing sources of income and to identify new ones.
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Brazilian banks continue to dominate our annual ranking of Latin America's biggest banks. But some smaller institutions top the ranking by capital, assets and profit growth, while Banespa has by far the highest return on equity. Data for the Latin 100 is supplied by Fitch IBCA.
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Imagine the volume of issuance if German mortgage banks were allowed to securitize their home loan portfolios. What if Germany's big commercial banks could turn their loan books into CLOs and sell them to bond and commercial paper investors? Well now they can. German banks will issue Dm20 billion in asset-backed securities this year. As Euan Hagger reports, the market should get much bigger.
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On a lighter note, we say goodbye for the time being to our resident US banker, Herbie. Herbie first started writing home to Mom in 1969. A firm believer that friends are God's apology for relations, he has spent the last 28 years based in London, as far from his mother as possible, though every faithful month his letters home have kept her, and you, abreast of the latest financial happenings. In the process he has chronicled, mocked and satirized most of the key events in the life of the modern capital markets.
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Before he left Turkey for the US to study civil engineering at Oregon State University in Corvallis, Husnu Ozyegin bought a notebook and started keeping his accounts.
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Their mission is the same: to hunt down and execute mandates. They're all winners. Yet their tactics differ greatly, reflecting the varied cast of characters now reigning on Wall Street - tough New Yorkers, Cuban exiles, a laid-back Brazilian, an English lawyer, even a Senegalese photographer. Brian Caplen investigates the mix.
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George Jedlicka, managing director and chairman of Expandia Finance finds it hard to call Tomas Pardubicky, his colleague, Mr Pardubicky, as formality demands. It's understandable: Pardubicky is a fresh-faced 23-year-old who has been at Expandia just a year and confesses that he is still finishing a university degree. With a laugh, Jedlicka gives up, and reverts to the more familiar Tomas.
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What's behind Lehman Brothers' decision to form an executive committee? The news this August that the heads of the major businesses would join chief executive Richard Fuld in a six-member committee came four years after Lehman split from its marriage with American Express Bank. Ostensibly, the team is being set up to formulate strategy.
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Ukraine has been pushed to the brink by Russia's financial turmoil and the government's resistance to reform. The treasury bill market needs restructuring or there will be default, equity trading has ground to a standstill, and foreign investors are counting the days until they can get their money out of the country. Theodore Kim reports.
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Is it a correction rather than a crisis? Perhaps, but consider this sobering list of 31 crises, prepared by Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital. His conclusion? "A western equity market crash will complete this litany of disasters ... since [equities] are mispriced by most yardsticks and since their fundamentals are daily worsening."
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From the Silk Road, to Basingstoke, to Buenos Aires, the HSBC Group has grown into one of the most formidable names in international banking. Its recent spurt of acquisitions - which have made it the most profitable bank in the world three years running - were masterminded by the workaholic Scotsman William Purves, who gave up the role of chairman this year. His long-time deputy, John Bond, is today the taipan of a bancassurance group that grew out of the old HongkongBank founded in 1865 in a diversification strategy that is looking wiser by the day.
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Amidst all their other problems, just how well prepared are Japanese financial institutions for the millennium computer bug? After more than a year of debate and the odd testy exchange between banking officials and information officers across the Pacific some real evidence could soon be at hand.
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In an uncertain world, one thing is clear. Persistent rumours that a displeased or desperate Japan will cause financial mayhem by suddenly offloading its US government bond holdings is nonsense. This possibility is so universally reject by informed market participants that it's hard to see how it ever gained any credibility.
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Mexican corporates are raring to go but the borrowing outlook is grim. International markets are expensive, the local banking sector weak. The big names can raise funds but may be hit because their customers are cash-strapped. By Matthew Doman.
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Economists and academics will long ponder why east Asia's currencies have depreciated so much. Euromoney thinks it may have found the answer - perhaps each country is trying to outdo the others for the title of cheapest currency in Asia.
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Could it be true that Deutsche Bank was considering a bid for JP Morgan in mid-August? Deutsche was supposedly offering $175 a share in cash, 49% above the closing price the day before. But pooled accounting is forbidden by German law, so Deutsche's capital ratios would have fallen to an unsustainable and illegal level had the deal gone ahead. And Deutsche's recent history is hardly such as to endear Morgan's chief executive, Sandy Warner, and his senior staff to a link-up.
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Brazil long needed a heavyweight in the central bank chair and now it's got one. Gustavo Franco earned his spurs in last October's Asian meltdown. His policy regime, especially the use of capital controls, is being studied around the world. Brian Caplen reports.
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Must the IMF grow in size just to stomach the next bail-out, or should it reinvent itself as a tougher, global rating agency of countries and their banking systems? Such an IMF would not whisper advice into the ear of crony capitalists and then pay off their creditors - it would be a lean, mean agent of transparency and would deal out pain where pain is due. James Smalhout reports.
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For a system that supposedly conquered the world in 1990, free-market capitalism doesn't look so good any more. After Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Russia, which of capitalism's self-appointed disciples will stumble next? And who is to blame? The track record has embarrassed all but hard-liners into thinking there might be a Third Way - between free capital flows with floating exchange rates and the dirigiste controls of the 1960s. Chile, China, James Tobin - they've all been held to ridicule for their batty market ideas. But today it's not just bleeding-hearts and socialists who are looking at their attempts more closely. Michelle Celarier reports.
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World stock and futures exchanges are in a turmoil of change and uncertainty. Fusion and cross-border linkages are in the air. Regulation to take account of this rapid change lags far behind, and stateless, borderless trading facilities may soon make it impossible. Remember, the only reason for an exchange to exist is to reduce transaction costs, argues Ruben Lee. Any new step that doesn't will end in tears.
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How do you wean crisis countries away from official bail-outs onto private funding? There has to be a way to reward borrowers for improved behaviour yet punish lenders for piling in indiscriminately. New lending models include contingent repos, sovereign default options and credit spread bonds. But will they catch on? James Smalhout reports.