September 1999
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LATEST ARTICLES
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The Asian crisis delivered a devastating blow to the region's sprawling conglomerates. For years they diversified and grew rapidly, feeding on a rich diet of debt, much of it in foreign currencies. Then suddenly their markets collapsed and their debt service costs soared. But the bad times are ending and after drastic restructuring the best companies are on the move again. Alex Mathias reports.
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Last month an earthquake brought Turkey's economy to a temporary standstill. It was already in the throes of a recession. Now it's time to rebuild, take advantage of extra sympathy from the IMF and international capital markets, and perhaps revitalize and reform the country in a way that wasn't politically possible before August 17. Metin Munir reports.
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A consolidation wave has broken over the Arab banks. In Bahrain, Gulf International Bank and Saudi International have created a new giant. In Saudi Arabia, Saudi American Bank and United Saudi Bank merged. Years of low oil prices and weak economies are the spur, though banks are still making profits. Commentary by Andrew Beikos and Elena Antoniou
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Bankers tossed out of jobs in last year's emerging markets crisis should now be brushing off their CVs. Quietly and cautiously banks are rebuilding their emerging markets teams - primarily in Asian and Latin American equities - in the hope that this year's momentum in the asset class will be sustained. ING Barings which was heavily criticized for radically downsizing a tip-top team is leading the way back.
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All you need to make good money in Brazil is a banking licence, a few retail outlets and faith that your biggest customer will keep up payments. You don't need to worry too much about credit analysis, operating efficiency or branding. Risk-management skills may help you make even more money, but if you don't have them, relax, you should still come out ahead. Michael Peterson reports
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The credibility of the UAE's stock market continues to be affected by the lack of a settlement, clearing and custody system - leaving it highly unregulated, devoid of transparency and subject to manipulation. But, Nigel Dudley reports, a regulatory system now seems on the way
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Forget about the euro. Forget about Y2K. These are no more than simple exercises in crisis management. E-commerce is what you should be preparing for: get the power of the internet around you. It is a power that is revolutionizing equities trading, a power likely to spread into core investment banking, in the process stripping away the inefficiencies previously integral to the financial system. Established market leaders already face an array of upstart competitors. There are new banks, new trading systems. Pricing and research are the main targets. All-comers now have access to liquidity. Huge amounts of research are freely available. Ma, Pa and the Belgian dentist can pile in there with the best of them. All under the cloak of anonymity. As a senior investment banker puts it: "This business used to be a pitched gun-battle. It could get messy but you knew who the opponents were. Not any more. It feels as if we're being shot at from every direction." Heed his words but don't delay in joining the fray. Three years will be too late. E-commerce is the power of the future. But it's here now. Antony Currie goes behind the wires to report from the new frontier.
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Nothing surprises crisis-hardened Desmond Supple any more, but even he was left slightly baffled by Malaysia's bid to resurrect talk of a single south-east Asian currency. Supple, head of research at Barclays Capital in Singapore, deftly reeled off reasons why, in his opinion, such a concept would not work, at least for the foreseeable future. Variations in development levels between the countries and differences in business cycles are top of Supple's list.
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Credit and swap spreads have already risen in anticipation of the world's financial markets clamming shut this December. Borrowers and bankers talk nervously about the disappearance of liquidity and short-term funding in the run-up to year 2000. Central banks are on standby. So are some traders who hope to take advantage of illiquidity and mispricing. The frustration for many is that it is their own contingency plans, not their computers, that threaten chaos. But no-one knows how fierce the full millennium effect will be. Marcus Walker reports
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Banks, like priests before them, have survived in part because of their monopoly of information and access. The internet is changing all that. As Steven Irvine argues, the data and choices that can be accessed with a mouse click must mean the death of banks as we know them.
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As Daewoo, once symbolic of the strength of new Korea, is forced into dismemberment because of crippling debt, the government hopes the demise of the second largest of Korea's chaebols will spur others to restructure to avoid a similar fate. However, there is a worry that economic recovery has taken some of the pressure off chaebol chiefs. Steven Irvine reports
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When former paratrooper and failed coup leader Hugo Chávez was elected president of Venezuela in December promising to do whatever was necessary to improve the lot of the bulk of the population, the country's bankers weren't sure what kind of treatment they could expect. They are beginning to find out.
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Issuer: EuroCredit CDO 1
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The 17 superchefs of the European Central Bank who sit on its governing council have 17 ideas about how to set rates, and how transparent the process should be. From the orthodox toughness of Duisenberg and Issing to the softness on the Nordic and southern fringes. Here are the two Germans, two Frenchmen, two Dutchmen, two Finns, two Spaniards, two Italians, the Austrian, Irishman, Portuguese, Belgian and Luxembourgois who rule euroland. By David Lanchner
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Ever thought about dropping out of the City or Wall Street, and setting up your own little business, producing something real and tangible, perhaps even socially useful, and fostering it all the way to an IPO? If you're an investment banker, the answer is probably ... yes.
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Croatia has too many banks and most of them are poorly run. Bad debts are on the rise. Related lending has been widespread. The government has taken some banks under its wing and hopes to rehabilitate and privatize them. Yet fundamental reform of the sector is coming too slowly and in insufficient doses. Alex Mathias reports.
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Plummeting oil prices, turmoil in world markets and natural disasters: José Angel Gurría's first months as Mexico's finance secretary were a baptism of fire. But his legendary powers of persuasion enabled him to make vital budget cuts to keep Mexico on track. By Brian Caplen
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The figures are alarming. A worldwide survey by Standard & Poor's shows that 55 rated companies failed in the first half of 1999, defaulting on total debts of $20.5 billion. That easily exceeds the 37 failures and $8.3 billion in defaulted debts in the second half of 1998, when the rising default trend began. What's worrying is that, while common sense and historical data teach that the level and volatility of default rates rises in a recession, the US is in anything but that.
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Richard Deitz didn't realize how provocative his new firm's name would be when he set it up in Moscow after the crisis. VR Group, the snipers say, stands for "vozrozhdenie or vozkrezenie Renaissance" - Russian for Renaissance revival or resurrected. Others claim it means virtual Renaissance.
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Rolf Breuer, speaker of Deutsche Bank, defends the purchase of Bankers Trust
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John Reed's pronouncements that Citibank and Travelers Group are not merging fast enough may be too severe. The banking group's merged corporate and investment banking divisions are trying their best to show otherwise.
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When the ministry of finance regulated banks in Japan the watchdog turned a blind eye to foreign banks doing things domestic ones couldn't. Not that there was anything illegal in the lucrative business of creating structured deals for firms intent on disguising losses. The new regulator - the FSA - takes a different view and has imposed an exemplary clampdown on Credit Suisse. There's apparently a limit on the number of times something legal can be done if it's deemed against the public interest. The bankers are bemused by the vagueness of it all and so is our reporter Steven Irvine.
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Elections have a nasty habit of destabilizing Latin America's fragile financial markets. The latest election-inspired jolt came in July when Eduardo Duhalde, Peronist party candidate for Argentina's presidency, suggested that the country might not need to pay back all its debts. The impact was felt throughout Latin America. Spreads on bonds widened, stock markets fell and currencies weakened. While some Latin issuers have taken advantage of brief windows of opportunity to sell bonds and equities this year, many are struggling to raise finance, while much of the region heads into economic downturn. Michael Peterson reports
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When Armínio Fraga quit his job at Soros Fund Management to become Brazil's central banker he was dubbed a "poacher turned gamekeeper". But he is no stranger to the public sector. With stability restored he is now modernizing Brazil's finance sector. Brian Caplen reports
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It's huge, it's teeming with wild creatures, and it's fragile. In 1994 Deutsche Bank began to build an investment bank. In 1998 it restructured itself around corporate and investment banking. In 1999 it totally absorbed Bankers Trust. The result is a behemoth that relies heavily on global securities markets and the charisma of one man. Is this a safe vehicle for the next millennium? David Shirreff reports
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There can be no stronger sign of progress in Russian financial structuring than the news of the revival of Inkombank, one of the institutions worst hit in the crisis.