September 2002
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LATEST ARTICLES
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IMF/World Bank meeting
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Forget proper arguments, who's got the best celebs on their side? This is what the euro vote is coming to in the UK as the two camps draw up their campaigns.
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Kazakhstan led the world growth table in 2001 and credit rating agencies see it as a sound candidate for borrowing. Export credit agencies are not so confident, pointing in their ratings to paltry political reform and a nepotistic ruling elite.
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European integration
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The IMF has disbursed $13 billion to Tukey this year and claims to see widespread support for economic reform in the country. But the summer’s political crisis has raised the prospect of electoral success for the Islamists.
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With asset prices beaten down, private-equity firms see big opportunities to buy now. But are they calling the bottom of the market too soon?
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Hedge funds
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The Korean government’s sale of Seoul Bank to another domestic player has upset foreign bidders . But the sale is likely to prompt further consolidation.
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In my view the bear market in equities will resume beyond the so-called summer rally. Crucially, the huge fall in household wealth will dampen consumer demand and rising risk aversion will delay a revival of global investment. There will also be much weaker corporate earnings growth, making equities overvalued; a weaker dollar spreading deflation into emerging economies; and poor leadership from the US administration on global economic policy and geopolitics.
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A couple of years ago, wearing a suit and tie marked you as a stick-in-the-mud. It might mean you were caught in the past and didn't get the new economy.
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China is a massive liberalizing market. Does this mean big opportunities for foreigners to make money? Up to a point perhaps – size of this order is difficult for outsiders to get a grip of and domestic institutions will in any case want the biggest share.
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A minority of a minority – five holders of part of the 15% active capital of Icelandic mutual savings bank Spron – are crucial to the takeover bid being made by commercial bank Búnadarbanki.
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Despite robust GDP growth in 2001 in most Arab countries, their banks suffered falling earnings because of more domestic competition, weakness in global investment markets, tighter margins, and higher loan-loss provisions.
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Debt markets
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Saudi Arabia’s investment needs are so great that it looks as if economic reform – however halting – will win out over statist, introverted policies.
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Will it be fourth time lucky for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential elections? If he wins, the result will not be welcomed on Wall Street. What are the repercussions for Brazil, already teetering on the brink?
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Latin America faces what one analyst calls the worst period in its economic history since the middle of the 19th century. The decade of reform appears to be ending with little having been achieved. Political crises abound. Much needed foreign capital is drying up. And those looking to the IMF for salvation are likely to be disappointed.
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You will find them in the leafier, tonier suburbs of London, Frankfurt, New York, San Francisco, Chicago. Well-groomed, satisfied-looking men and women sipping cappuccinos, enjoying the afternoon sun on a working day. The new investment banking unemployed are rediscovering the pleasures of family life and ample leisure.
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Russia is facing its first real economic test since the fall of the Soviet Union. The strong growth of the past two years is slowing down as the last of devaluation’s beneficial effects wear off.
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MarketAxess has risen to the top of online credit trading through a mix of luck and skill. Now TradeWeb has launched corporate bond trading too. The downturn has helped position them as the two biggest platforms. But they’re competing for a tiny share of overall corporate bond business.
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Visitors to Washington for the IMF/World Bank meetings might be perplexed by the recurrent mention by their hosts of one Anthony Williams. Williams is DC's mayor but perhaps not for much longer.
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One-upmanship is the norm in investment banking and UBS Warburg and Goldman Sachs have proved it's alive and well after the listing of Bank of China Hong Kong. But rather than the usual "our execution was better than yours" routine, this time the boasting is over who gave the snazziest gift to a client.
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Ian Macfarlane points to the dynamism of Australia’s economy, neglected by a market that went hi-tech mad, as part of the reason for his success at the Reserve Bank of Australia. But he’s made a few good calls of his own.
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Brazilian banks continue to dominate indigenous banking in Latin America and continue to grow despite the economy’s woes.
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The robber-baron days of the Yeltsin-era oligarchs might be over but high-level power play is still a feature of Russia's economy, fuelled by a still underdeveloped legal system.
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Issuer: Republic of LebanonAmount: $750 millionLaunched: August 2 2002Bookrunner: Morgan Stanley
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Fund management
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Dubai is busily preparing to host the annual IMF/World Bank meetings in 2003 which it hopes will showcase the city’s credentials as an international financial centre.