September 2002
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LATEST ARTICLES
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A couple of years ago, wearing a suit and tie marked you as a stick-in-the-mud. It might mean you were caught in the past and didn't get the new economy.
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With asset prices beaten down, private-equity firms see big opportunities to buy now. But are they calling the bottom of the market too soon?
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China is a massive liberalizing market. Does this mean big opportunities for foreigners to make money? Up to a point perhaps – size of this order is difficult for outsiders to get a grip of and domestic institutions will in any case want the biggest share.
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The Korean government’s sale of Seoul Bank to another domestic player has upset foreign bidders . But the sale is likely to prompt further consolidation.
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Kazakhstan led the world growth table in 2001 and credit rating agencies see it as a sound candidate for borrowing. Export credit agencies are not so confident, pointing in their ratings to paltry political reform and a nepotistic ruling elite.
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In my view the bear market in equities will resume beyond the so-called summer rally. Crucially, the huge fall in household wealth will dampen consumer demand and rising risk aversion will delay a revival of global investment. There will also be much weaker corporate earnings growth, making equities overvalued; a weaker dollar spreading deflation into emerging economies; and poor leadership from the US administration on global economic policy and geopolitics.
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The IMF has disbursed $13 billion to Tukey this year and claims to see widespread support for economic reform in the country. But the summer’s political crisis has raised the prospect of electoral success for the Islamists.
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Despite robust GDP growth in 2001 in most Arab countries, their banks suffered falling earnings because of more domestic competition, weakness in global investment markets, tighter margins, and higher loan-loss provisions.
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A minority of a minority – five holders of part of the 15% active capital of Icelandic mutual savings bank Spron – are crucial to the takeover bid being made by commercial bank Búnadarbanki.
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Debt markets
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Saudi Arabia’s investment needs are so great that it looks as if economic reform – however halting – will win out over statist, introverted policies.
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Forget proper arguments, who's got the best celebs on their side? This is what the euro vote is coming to in the UK as the two camps draw up their campaigns.
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European integration
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Brazilian banks continue to dominate indigenous banking in Latin America and continue to grow despite the economy’s woes.
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Will it be fourth time lucky for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil's presidential elections? If he wins, the result will not be welcomed on Wall Street. What are the repercussions for Brazil, already teetering on the brink?
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MarketAxess has risen to the top of online credit trading through a mix of luck and skill. Now TradeWeb has launched corporate bond trading too. The downturn has helped position them as the two biggest platforms. But they’re competing for a tiny share of overall corporate bond business.
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Visitors to Washington for the IMF/World Bank meetings might be perplexed by the recurrent mention by their hosts of one Anthony Williams. Williams is DC's mayor but perhaps not for much longer.
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Russia is facing its first real economic test since the fall of the Soviet Union. The strong growth of the past two years is slowing down as the last of devaluation’s beneficial effects wear off.
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IMF/World Bank meeting
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Latin America faces what one analyst calls the worst period in its economic history since the middle of the 19th century. The decade of reform appears to be ending with little having been achieved. Political crises abound. Much needed foreign capital is drying up. And those looking to the IMF for salvation are likely to be disappointed.
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Latin America
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You will find them in the leafier, tonier suburbs of London, Frankfurt, New York, San Francisco, Chicago. Well-groomed, satisfied-looking men and women sipping cappuccinos, enjoying the afternoon sun on a working day. The new investment banking unemployed are rediscovering the pleasures of family life and ample leisure.
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Equity exchanges
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South Africa
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Fund management
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Dubai is busily preparing to host the annual IMF/World Bank meetings in 2003 which it hopes will showcase the city’s credentials as an international financial centre.
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When it comes to corruption, some things never change. While Nigeria is consistently seen as one of the most corrupt countries, Finland, Denmark and New Zealand are viewed as perennially clean.
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The robber-baron days of the Yeltsin-era oligarchs might be over but high-level power play is still a feature of Russia's economy, fuelled by a still underdeveloped legal system.
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Euromoney’s analysts have taken a measured view of such hyperbole as the “axis of evil” and resisted over-reacting to the situation in such regional crisis points as southern Africa. Latin America’s troubled economies suffer the severest downgrades.
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Issuer: Republic of LebanonAmount: $750 millionLaunched: August 2 2002Bookrunner: Morgan Stanley