September 2004
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LATEST ARTICLES
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Wait long enough and anything comes back into fashion. Even flares. Now it's high-yield cash collateralized bonds, or CDOs.
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Iran's economic liberalization programme has shown impressive results. But the victory of conservative forces in the latest elections threatens further progress. Meanwhile the country's banks are incapable of funding its corporations, which are turning instead to the capital markets.
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You're a populist left-wing politician in South America. Your country's elite doesn't like you, and Wall Street is scathing. Your reputation could do with a bit of help. What do you do? Why, take out an advertisement in the New York press, of course. The trend started in July, when an advert appeared in the New York Times. "Argentina," it blared: "A responsible country, a responsible proposal". A list of the great and the good followed, attesting to Argentina's "sincere and realistic proposal to creditors" (see Argentina's creditors brace for lowball offer). U2's Bono, Mikhail Gorbachev and actors Emma Thompson and Viggo Mortensen were prominent.
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Slovakia boasts the fastest growth rate in central and eastern Europe as it turns from regional laggard to leader. It has boosted growth, controlled government spending and attracted FDI with a tax policy some of its larger neighbours dislike. They won't intimidate finance minister Ivan Miklos.
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The Shariah-compliant debt market has grown rapidly, with interest from issuers and investors outside as well as inside the Muslim world. The next development is likely to be more corporate issues using Islamic structures.
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The appointment of former deputy central bank governor Jammaz Al-Suhaimi as chairman of Saudi Arabia's Capital Markets Authority looks set to accelerate the liberalization and broadening of the kingdom's financial markets.
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Iraq and Argentina's debt problems will dominate this month's IMF/World Bank meetings, with the size of their liabilities casting doubt on the international financial system's ability to cope.
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It's late on a Thursday night and the party cognoscenti are headed for one of Asia's slickest nightspots. From the exterior, f.bar, a bunker-like building with an unpromising squat black façade is guarded by serious-looking security personnel clad head to toe in matching black.
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The new coalition government led by Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh will kick off privatization sales with a billion-dollar initial public offering in September.
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www.breakingviews.com
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Google's decision to use an auction for its IPO sprang from a desire to get what it regarded as a fair price, avoid post-issue upsets and offer fair investor access. Did it succeed in these goals and might it have done better had it shown more respect to its bankers?
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Hedge funds are suddenly receiving high allocations in IPOs even though their participation can sometimes reduce issuers' proceeds. Are they suitable buyers or are investment banks favouring the clients which pay them the most?
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There has been an unseasonal tension on some of Spain's more exclusive beaches over the past month. August is usually a time for the great and the good of industry to leave the stresses of the cities behind them and unwind by the sea. But for the chairmen of some of the biggest companies, the holidays were spoiled by the knowledge that in the autumn they will be fighting for their jobs.
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The youthful managers of Kazakhstan's financial sector are determined that oil and minerals wealth will be used to create a strong mixed economy. A well-regulated banking system and controls on the inflationary effects of oil earnings have been established but diversification and financial markets development still face significant hurdles.
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The prospect of next month's European Commission decision on EU membership for Romania has concentrated the minds of the country's politicians and bankers. A flurry of reforms have been accompanied by an acceleration of privatization to get the country into shape for a 2007 accession target.
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Low interest rates and improvements in financial stability and management in large parts of Latin America are putting banks on the path to increased lending capacity as demand for credit increases.
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Deflation is on the way, summoning up a long and dreary financial winter. But it should be preceded by a burst of autumn sunshine
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Through western eyes, China and India might seem locked in a struggle for economic supremacy. The truth is quite different. The economies are complementary more than being competitors with each other, and the implications will shape the global economy for decades to come.
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A well-executed privatization programme, carefully directed investment in education, valuable trade agreements and astute management of debt and inflation have underscored the growing health of the Jordanian economy, symbolized by its graduation from IMF programmes.
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Real money investors such as mutual funds, as well as credit hedge funds, prop traders and other specialist investors, are finally treating credit risk as an asset class to be managed like any other. They bring new liquidity to the markets in default swaps and credit indices that have made this possible.
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Sandy Nairn loves a good challenge. After 10 years at Templeton Investment Management he took on the task of reviving Scottish Widows Investment Partnership, Lloyds TSB's languishing Edinburgh-based investment business in November 2000.
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Argentina has over half a million creditors, while Iraq has comparatively few. But dealing with $100 billion of Iraq's debt has given everyone from the IMF to the Paris Club a tough problem to resolve. The US government will urge generosity but a happy solution for all interested parties is next to impossible.
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First Wit dumped its attempt to build a retail platform. Next, it dumped its name, and moved out of its Silicon Alley headquarters in New York to Connecticut. Then last year Charles Schwab Capital Markets bought it. At least Wit, by then Soundview, the name of the boutique it bought in 1999, was joining a like-minded firm with ambitions to change how markets work.
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If your competitors are beating you to the most lucrative deals, it could be they're better at pressing the flesh. Wooing potential clients over drinks or dinner is as much a part of a banker's job as making formal pitches.
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In 20 months as governor, Alfonso Prat-Gay built a credible central bank from almost nothing, managed the money supply brilliantly, oversaw currency stability, kept rates low and even began whipping the banking sector into shape. For these achievements, he is Euromoney's central bank governor of the year. But he also strove for greater independence for the central bank. Now, on the eve of the country's crucial bond exchange, president Nestor Kirchner has chosen to dispense with Argentina's most internationally respected policymaker.
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New tools such as credit default swaps and index products have changed the ground rules of hedge fund activity in emerging markets. They are paying off now but will sophisticated pricing and technology be able to cope with the next emerging-market debt crisis?
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South African banks are working out how to structure and finance the Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) deals that are altering the ownership structure of the country's financial services industry. Under South Africa's voluntary Financial Sector Charter, direct black ownership in financial institutions should reach 10% by 2010.
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The EU's decision in December on Turkey's bid for membership will have dramatic effects on the country's economic development. But even if the formal accession process begins, major reforms will still have to be undertaken.
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Does present poor hedge fund performance cast doubt on the broad validity of the sector or have new investors that flooded into hedge funds recently fallen for myths about their success and failed to see performance in a historical context? What is clear is that attempts to match capacity to demand have at least temporarily undermined some hedge fund strategies.
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Oil and gas still lord it over all other sectors of the Russian economy but beyond the energy markets other businesses are making their mark on the international stage. Euromoney identifies some of the rising stars.