September 2011
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LATEST ARTICLES
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The euro crisis has already resulted in the region’s country risk scores falling by a greater margin than the Asian economies in 1997. That’s before any of the countries involved has actually defaulted. Andrew Mortimer asks: how many years will Europe take to recover?
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The buoyant Thai economy kept motoring on through the political disturbances of the past year. But the recently elected government of Yingluck Shinawatra is already being challenged on its economic policies by former finance minister Korn Chatikavanij. Eric Ellis reports.
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Alan Brown believes that it is incumbent on guardians of other people’s money to be nimble and react to changing data and the evolution of markets. Tactical moves are as important as long-term strategy and sentiment; cussedness or the rigid adherence to any set of beliefs have little role to play in making investment decisions. In spite of this, it is possible to detect a hint of schadenfreude when Brown talks about the current woes of the eurozone. Since before the introduction of the single currency in 1999, he has been unwavering in warning that imposing a one-size-fits-all monetary policy on Europe’s diverse economies would entrench imbalances and eventually wreak economic havoc.
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The economy has been brought to a near standstill by domestic and regional political turmoil, but the country’s banks report rising deposits and profits and feel they can ride out the crisis. Dominic Dudley reports.
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The Asean region could be the world’s sixth-largest economy but its financial systems are far from homogenous. Free movement of goods, services, investments and labour planned for 2015 should boost unity but the lack of an integrated capital market is a big stumbling block. Chris Wright reports.
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It seems unlikely new political freedoms in the Middle East could bring greater economic empowerment. In the short term investors are being put off by the volatility. Banks are reassessing their positions. Dominic O’Neill reports.
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The political unrest in Bahrain has adversely affected banks and their customers. Loss of business to other Gulf states might be hard to reverse, especially as the government crackdown continues, leaving popular resentment smouldering. Dominic Dudley reports.
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The pat excuse for volatility striking markets in August is that the investment heavyweights are on the beach. Not so Alan Brown. The chief investment officer of Schroders met Euromoney as panic turned to hysteria. Brown believes these are among the most treacherous markets he has ever experienced, but finds a few boltholes for investors brave enough to be contrarians, writes Andrew Capon.
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Spending state oil revenues on prestige stakes in western brands no longer fits so well with the political climate in the Middle East. Mubadala has an alternative model for what Gulf governments can do with spare cash. If you want its investment money, you’d better bring something else to Abu Dhabi as well. Dominic O’Neill speaks to the firm’s senior management.
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THE ARAB-NATIONALIST old guard that hung on to power for 40 years or more is falling. Even in the Gulf, regimes are under pressure. And as with the fall of the Berlin Wall, these events are having a far-reaching impact.
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While regulators’ attention has focused on those that are too big to fail, the financial institutions in Europe that face the sternest challenge might be those that are too small to get funding from investors. And those at risk could include some sizeable and well-known banks, as Phil Moore reports.
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The fall of the multi-billion dollar Sino-Forest Corporation is merely the most prominent show in the overseas-listed China stock scandal circus, as a colourful cast of auditors, corporate executives, exchanges, investors, regulators and short sellers argue over who’s to blame and what can be done about the alleged frauds and misdeeds now coming to light. Lawrence White follows a saga that takes in Hong Kong, New York and Shanghai.
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New entrants to Asia’s crowded brokerage market are spending heavily in the belief that committing fully to the region is the only way to survive. There’s a lot of money being spent, but not enough business for all of the competition to survive. Lawrence White reports from Hong Kong, Seoul and Tokyo.
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Some of China’s wealthiest people are banding together to use their money and local knowledge to invest in the country’s growth businesses. Little is known about these groups, their investments or their returns. Elliot Wilson shines a light on the underground investment culture, and asks what chance international private equity firms have of competing against local intelligence and power.
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The summer of turmoil in the eurozone has cemented the transition of the region’s sovereign debt sector into one large and volatile credit market. Traditional passive fixed-income fund managers barely know how to cope, while credit specialists are jumping in and expecting to make big returns. Louise Bowman reports.
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Egypt’s top bankers took extreme measures to ensure that the country’s financial infrastructure did not break down as the Mubarak government fell. Now, as they desperately hope that a new regime will enable the banking industry to flourish, optimism is tempered with the reality of how much work there is to do. Eric Ellis reports from Cairo.
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The economies of developed nations are now dangerously dependent on consumption funded by debt to spur growth. Turning the clock back to make do and mend won’t be painless but it is both inevitable and long overdue.
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For all the policy decisions of the past three years, nothing has been done to address the fundamental problems facing the economies of the developed world. Four key issues will continue to keep the world in a prolonged period of stagnation. If they all get worse at the same time, the consequences are painful to contemplate. Peter Lee and Clive Horwood look at the state we’re in.
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For three years, policymakers have failed to address the root problems of the financial crisis. Only one tool is left – for central banks to buy up and thereby reduce the amount of debt outstanding. David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff bemoans the failure of leaders to tackle the debt problems head on.
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In both the US and the eurozone there is a failure to recognize that the crisis is about solvency not liquidity.
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Analysts see acceleration from low base; $5 billion for investment, M&A, dividends
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Mexico’s century bond a good omen; Region expected to outperform even in a recession
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Over 50,000 jobs on the block; Move to fixed compensation added pressure
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UniCredit trade proves the exception; Senior unsecured still shut
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Offshore market meets convertibility rule; Global rebalancing bullish for Asian currencies
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Astana Finance dismays investors; Samruk-Kazyna favours ECAs
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Buffett instils confidence but at what price?; Deals positive signs for bank capital-raising
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Argentina unit sold for $600 million; Focus on retail and smaller businesses
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It’s easy to think with what’s going on in the eurozone that the biggest financial crisis facing the world is the future of sovereign debt. But without wishing to diminish its seriousness there’s one issue that overrides its importance: food prices.
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Concern grows for munis; Will Chapter 9s increase?