Latin America and Caribbean

Toxic outlook for economy and NPLs; impact of higher NIM sparks debate.

Central bankers in Latin America stress policy limits; macro-prudential tools out of favour.

Guarantees to aid private sector flows; BNDES scaling back but still dominant player.

Commodity exports overvalued the real; manufacturing went 'down the drain'.

China’s risk score fell 1.5 points, to below 60 out of 100, for the first time in almost two years in Q3 2015. With Brazil in freefall and a US interest-rate hike on the cards, investor risk is rising for many – but not all – emerging markets (EMs), complicating portfolio selection.

IRB Brasil Re delays IPO pricing; debt markets down 52% on year.

Investment banking fees in LatAm are on the way down and international banks face a tricky choice of whether to stick or twist.

The country’s economy is going through tough times, putting a greater onus on private bankers to look after their clients’ investments. An emphasis on overseas diversification of portfolios is crucial. However, domestic investments still take up the greater share and require careful management

The Brazilian government is pinning its hopes on infrastructure finance to boost GDP growth and help woeful productivity rates. But the source of finance and the viability of some of the proposed projects mean that an infrastructure-led recovery won’t be coming to Brazil’s rescue any time soon.

Brazil deal lifts Bradesco; UK bank fights to retain Mexico.

It is time for Brazil’s central bank to encourage some competition and shake up the cosy world of its domestic institutions.

Battle-ready long-term investors could pick up equity and debt on the cheap, according to research, as S&P finally cuts Brazil to junk after Euromoney Country Risk rankings.

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DCM issuance down by 40%; locals and internationals suffer.

Plans to involve the capital markets seem to be attracting the wrong investor – one who might not understand the risks.

Government seeks private investors; buyers ‘not fully aware’ of the risks.

Brazil’s economy must absorb a lot more pain before it starts to grow again. Until then, investors will stay away, and the deals won’t come.

Demand rising, busy second half expected; Par Corretora holds key to Brazil return.

New rules to boost risk-weighted assets at G-Sibs are ramping up the pressure on those banks to change their business model, and become less global. Latin American markets, until recently a battleground for global banks, could now see several of them retreat. Are local banks about to benefit from a less competitive environment?

Global firms feel pinch; Chinese banks set to enter?

‘Deal surge’ predicted; Goldman Sachs urges caution.

Falling real creates value; upturn predicted for 2016.

With equity and now debt funding getting scarcer in public markets, Latin American corporates must think of other options. For longer-term investors, and for those with a strong appetite for risk, the region’s troubles are a rare opportunity.

Tarpon takes control of Abril for R$1.3 billion; new regulation might limit numbers of higher students.

Needs credibility before returning; wants to avoid punitive pricing.

Brazil has all the ingredients for successful local markets, but it keeps failing to deliver.

The troubles at Petrobras have hurt all of Brazil’s borrowers but bankers in the country think the worst is now over and that the bad news has been priced in. The proof will come when issuers return to the markets, but who wants to go first – and can the local markets produce the goods?

Brazilian bank Bradesco opens its London office on February 9. A small delegation of senior bankers from the bank’s Brazilian headquarters will fly over to mark the occasion.

The private banking industry in Latin America had a difficult 12 months as wealth creation slowed throughout the region. The picture for the year ahead looks brighter for some countries, but Brazil remains the dominant market and its prospects are still murky.

Sovereign reopens market; Petrobras saga stymies Brazil.