Macaskill on Markets

A US climate bill filled with green credits will create business for banks and provide relief from the backlash against ESG products.

West Virginia state treasurer Riley Moore has opened another front in a campaign by Republican officials in the US against banks that promote ESG policies.

HSBC Asset Management’s head of responsible investing has had it up to here with consultants and regulators lecturing him on climate change risk.

The film of The Big Short provides a welcome reminder of the glory days of Morgan Stanley’s fixed income franchise, when Howie Hubler managed to lose $9 billion on botched structured credit tranche trades.

The European Central Bank meeting in December provided a reminder that it is tough to make predictions – especially about the future. Goldman Sachs’s chief currency strategist Robin Brooks was forced to admit that he had dropped his crystal ball on his foot in predicting euro parity to the dollar by year-end and revised his forecasts for 2016 before 2015 was out. Undeterred, Euromoney’s Jon Macaskill makes his own predictions for the coming year in investment banking.

European Central Bank president Mario Draghi has been dropping further hints that he is considering unconventional measures to combat deflationary pressures in the region. This sets the stage for potential central bank buying of European corporate bonds, which in turn raises the question of whether there will be opportunities for nimble investors to game a new ‘Draghi Put’ for corporate credit.

Jes Staley can add an entry to his ‘to-do’ list for December 1, his first day as CEO of Barclays: send all staff an email about how to send emails.

Deutsche Bank co-CEO John Cryan took a clear-headed approach to most of his management overhaul in October. There are unresolved issues in the global markets unit that remains the bank’s revenue engine as well as the source of most of its reputational problems, however.

Jon Macaskill imagines how the star fund manager ruminates over his legal assault on his former Pimco colleagues.

Volkswagen’s bonds head into the red.

UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti may just have ‘Done a Diamond’ with his widely reported message to bankers at the firm that they should take more risk and not be afraid to make mistakes.

China’s struggle to communicate effectively with markets was demonstrated by its scapegoating of journalists for supposedly worsening the crash in local stock prices.

The return of market volatility in late August put a focus on asset managers, with investment banks for once ceding the spotlight during a period of turmoil. There will surely be some bank trading mishaps, but the main threat to revenues is likely to come from diminished demand for investment products rather than dealing room blow-ups.

The dismissal of Martin Wheatley, head of the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, by Chancellor George Osborne was widely interpreted as a step towards less intrusive regulation of the financial industry

A scathing report by German regulator BaFin on interest rate rigging by Deutsche Bank will no doubt give any potential employer of former co-CEO Anshu Jain pause for thought.

Deutsche Bank’s failure to acknowledge the enormity of the change it needs to return to health was demonstrated by the strange spin it gave to the departure of co-CEO Anshu Jain.

It is now a mark of the serious individual in finance to issue a dire warning about the threat posed by a lack of market liquidity. What climate change is to the young liberal (or young person), so liquidity has become to the ageing plutocrat, secure perhaps in his own billions, but with a furrowed brow as he contemplates the potential havoc that could be wreaked by diminished liquidity.

If the movie version of The Big Short does prove successful, it could spur the commissioning of other banking-themed films.