Macaskill on Markets
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Wall Street’s Trump party could end in a hangover
US banks will get a trading and dealmaking boost from Trump’s re-election, but rising Treasury yields could pose challenges. -
Sideways: Timing is everything at Deutsche Bank
Former credit trader Shikha Gupta discovers that a verbal contract isn’t worth the paper it is written on. -
Macaskill on markets: In the year of equities, derivatives are key
It is turning out to be an equities year for the big investment banks, as fixed income revenues fall or stall and fees from dealmaking recover slowly.
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A US climate bill filled with green credits will create business for banks and provide relief from the backlash against ESG products.
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West Virginia state treasurer Riley Moore has opened another front in a campaign by Republican officials in the US against banks that promote ESG policies.
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HSBC Asset Management’s head of responsible investing has had it up to here with consultants and regulators lecturing him on climate change risk.
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Elon Musk is full of praise for his bankers at Morgan Stanley. It’s a shame his $44 billion Twitter deal is set to cost the bank money rather than earning a tip for good service.
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Bankers are sending mixed messages about market strains. Dire warnings about year-end pressures, pleas for regulatory help and assurances that banks can sort this out are being deployed simultaneously.
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From Spacs and securitized products to executive compensation and supply-chain planning, Credit Suisse could split its investment bank into more than three parts.
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Removing UK bonus caps and undermining the BoE could exacerbate a sterling crisis while entrenching US IB dominance.
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Wall Street’s junior human capital resources may not appreciate that there is now a bear market for their output, and that could spell tough times ahead.
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Bank shares have failed to close a valuation gap with fintech competitors despite the prospect of higher interest income from rate hikes. Will the Fed’s newly tough stance on inflation-busting finally give bank stocks some respect?
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If Rishi Sunak prevails in the race to be the UK’s prime minister, then Goldman Sachs will still have one alumnus as head of a leading European economy, even if Mario Draghi steps down from leading Italy.
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Trading divisions at banks aren’t just offsetting slumping deal fees, they are also becoming more efficient. They could drive an upgrade in equity valuations.
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The head of crypto firm Galaxy Digital should get creative about his tattoo of failed token Luna.
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The current market slump gives banks a chance to repel competitors such as crypto firms and fintech lenders.
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The US government’s case against Archegos Capital sets up a contest to guess which of the fund’s prime brokers was the most gullible at any given time. To keep the game interesting, the answer might not always be Credit Suisse.
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Elon Musk’s $44 billion Twitter deal could see his bankers shift from cordial competition for fees to a desperate battle to avoid margin losses if the value of his Tesla holdings falls sharply.
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It looks like Chelsea bid heartbreak for the structuring team at asset manager Centricus, but football financing is a funny old game and it’s never over until the final whistle blows.
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Margin hikes are raising the table stakes in markets from commodities to stock loans. Margins may be a better risk signal than curiously subdued measures like the ViX index of equity volatility.
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Russians could try to use cryptocurrencies to dodge sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine, but a move into the mainstream by crypto exchange heads hungry for fiat currency wealth will complicate evasion tactics.
