July 2013
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LATEST ARTICLES
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Nobody panic. OK? That is no mere suggestion. Rather, it is strong advice to reporters straight from the propaganda department of the Chinese Communist Party. Directives from Beijing recently told bemused hacks, who mistakenly thought it was their job to just report stuff that was actually happening, that they should stop “hyping the so-called cash crunch” and instead spread the message that the country’s markets are well stocked with money.
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On June 12, RBS announced the impending departure of chief executive Stephen Hester almost five years after he took on the job of restructuring a bank that had collapsed into 82% state ownership. The press release on the bank’s website, mimicking news items on conventional wire services and daily newspaper sites, invites comment beneath the official platitudes. Is this a new approach?
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The IPO market in China has been variously described as dormant, slow or just plain dull. With respect to one IPO that got shelved last month, you might say hibernation was a more appropriate term. Fujian Guizhentang Pharmaceutical pulled its planned IPO after a public outcry over its seemingly utterly disgusting business of bear-bile extraction.
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BrewDog, probably the most ridiculous name for a beer-brewing company in the world, is retapping a particularly liquid source of funding.
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Are we experiencing a bout of the summer doldrums? The high-adrenaline events of previous years have dwindled to an unsatisfactory dribble.
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PKO BP buys Nordea Poland; Regulatory flux means pension business excluded
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Protest clampdown amid emerging market sell-off; central bank seen delaying rate increases.
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US dollar strengthening in anticipation of QE tapering; in response, emerging market assets have repriced.
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The immediate actions of key financial strategists have a direct impact on the markets. But what of the trends that are beyond these leaders’ control?
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The jump in treasury yields in late June prompted the two highest-profile US bond gurus to make public pronouncements designed to calm the nerves of their acolytes.
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The bond market tremors of late June maybe do not signal an impending fixed-income earthquake, but they do demonstrate the challenges banks face in maintaining revenue streams as investors adjust to the prospect of higher rates.
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Potential bankruptcy would be largest in market’s history; Observers divided on contagion risk
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Likely QE tapering prompts investor rethink; most funding needs already met.
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Funding squeeze reaches peak; PBoC to safeguard stability
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Bankers focus on positives; say authorities will strike right balance.
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Edward Gibbon wrote about the decline and fall of the Roman Empire and, for a few years now, I have been thinking about whether London can continue its dominance as an important financial centre. I am starting to think that we might be witnessing the decline and fall of the London empire. In a way, London is a city-state which bears little resemblance to the rest of the country. The European Banking Authority has become a Rottweiler and is insisting that, from next year, any banker who earns more than €500,000 will be affected by a EU-wide bonus cap. Such employees will have variable pay restricted to the same level as salary, or twice that level with explicit shareholder approval.
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Market volatility is unsurprising. The actions of no longer really independent central banks are stoking the embers of a dying system. A final reckoning is coming.
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In late June, I attended the International Capital Market Association’s dinner at the Savoy Hotel in London to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the Eurobond market. In 1963, the first fixed-rate Eurobond was launched by Autostrade. The issue was $15 million of 5.5% guaranteed bonds due 1972/78. Icma had gathered together an impressive group of market participants from all over the world. Issuers and bankers mingled and reminisced. Euromoney, which was founded in 1969 and has chronicled the development of and the milestones in the Eurobond market, was a sponsor of the dinner. As I scanned the guest list, I saw many familiar names: Cyrus Ardalan, Samir Assaf, Johannes Attems, Allegra Berman, Charlie Berman, Viscount Bridport, Waltraut Burghardt, Lachlan Burn, Maria Cannata, Christopher Carter, David Clark, Nicholas Clegg, Joe Cook, Frank Czichowski. And that brings me to only the fourth letter of the alphabet.
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$1 trillion fund to boost foreign buying; Move is meaningful for Europe
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Long-dated bonds collapse on tapering talk; Volatility underscores need for new thinking on liquidity
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Fed stress tests likely to make risk public; warnings of impact on securities portfolios.
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Veteran US healthcare dealmaker takes charge; UBS tops first-half fee tables.
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Al Noor listing shows reality; Morocco suffers on frontier downgrade
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US demand for LatAm investment expected to hold up; also developing vehicles for Brazilians investing abroad.
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According to Reuters, Crispin Odey, a respected hedge fund manager, took a 5% stake in Man Group last October and increased this further in April when the share price was around 100p, some 20% higher than the current price. Odey is a very astute investor and is admired for buying Barclays’ shares at their post-crunch low in the spring of 2009.
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Market share of financial businesses vital to supporting global economic growth is concentrating rapidly into the hands of a small group of the world’s biggest banks. Dealogic finds that of the $36.3 billion customers paid out in investment banking fees in the first six months of 2013, 56% of that total, fully $20.3 billion, went to just 10 banks.
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Bears thrive on accelerating inflation, weak growth and a falling real. But a positive, reforming response to protests might transform sentiment in Brazil.
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China RMB debate: The renminbi’s road to full internationalization
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A slight improvement in the UK’s economic outlook cannot mask the challenges facing the BoE’s new governor.
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Suntory Beverage might be just the tonic, or shot in the arm, that the Asian markets have needed.