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LATEST ARTICLES
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The veracity of official data from China has long been questioned due to inconsistencies, missing key indicators or massaging of the numbers for political reasons. Now the stakes seem higher: the rise in the shadow banking system and question marks over the accuracy of economic and industry data add to fears that calculating systemic leverage in China’s economy is mission impossible.
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Banks remain disinterested or wary of Bitcoin but there is a growing acknowledgement that the digital currency’s popularity cannot be overlooked indefinitely, if a recent gathering of the faithful is anything to go by. From trade to settlement, Bitcoin offers plenty of opportunities – and threats – for banks.
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While emerging market equities have been taking a battering, their diminutive near-relative frontier market equities have been holding up rather well, seemingly immune to the headwinds buffeting the interconnected jigsaw that makes up the global equities market.
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The rapid, seemingly uncontrolled, expansion of China’s shadow banking sector is under intense scrutiny because of the risks it poses to the banking system, and the economy itself, but also because the sector is largely unregulated. Urgent steps are needed to beef up regulatory vigilance as China seeks to engineer a contraction of credit to levered sectors.
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Foreign firms with ambitions in China need a smarter strategy to crack the country as the old certainties of double-digit growth, untrammelled markets and low-cost production are replaced by a more complex growth picture, says Ben Simpfendorfer, founder of Silk Road Associates.
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Some credit managers are predicting a market rally, at least in the short term, as the recent market sell-off restores value in the bond markets.
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Fears are growing that a concentration of bad debt in China’s informal lending or shadow financial sector, is a ticking time-bomb that might not only weigh on economic growth and stoke inflation but could cause a far more damaging banking crisis.
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The appreciation of China’s renminbi in the face of deteriorating economic fundamentals and global disinflation represents a new normal in China’s political economy, but opinion is split about whether the currency is overvalued.
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Central banks’ imminent retreat from the unprecedented monetary easing adopted following the financial crisis could lead to a severe loss of confidence in the markets, economic contraction and deflation — not just inflation as many fear. Sherif Lotfi, Head of Corporate Advisory, Americas, and Edward B. Marrinan, Head of US Macro Credit Strategy and Co-Head, Markets Strategy, Americas, at RBS explain.
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George Osborne is demanding monetary activism from the Bank of England to speed a fragile recovery, but its new boss Mark Carney is unlikely to start a revolution on Threadneedle Street.
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Companies need easier access to their cash across the globe as regulatory changes are expected to make borrowing more expensive. But strict rules on getting funds out of emerging markets – where many have invested heavily – are a major roadblock. Fortunately, regulatory reforms mean cash previously caught behind a country’s borders is becoming more accessible.
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The mini liquidity crunch is the early warning sign of a substantial economic correction long overdue, amid rising leverage and a broken growth model, say bearish analysts.
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The violent synchronized sell-off in emerging market assets – across FX, local rates and credit – raises the spectre of a new normal: the end of unsustainably high foreign ownership of assets, particularly local currency credit, greater credit differentiation and the waning power of financial repression in the US as a fillip to EM flows, bearish analysts say.
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The development of FX trading venues has been idiosyncratic, but can it follow other asset classes toward an exchange-traded future?
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Like it or not, electronic currencies are here to stay, challenging traditional payment channels. Euromoney surveys the contenders for digital dominion as security and regulatory challenges bite.
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The 2008 financial crisis undermined the old model of corporate funding. A smarter, more balanced model is emerging in its place.
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Mobile banking is poised to become a crucial tool to help corporate treasurers make financial decisions and access a range of services. Carlo R.W. De Meijer and Jonathan Bye, Market Engagement at RBS, explain.
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With interest rates unleashed from their recent trading range, and amid a mini-panic over the end to cheap central bank liquidity, investors in the credit markets are seeking ways to mitigate losses, which are eating into the record returns seen earlier this year.
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Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe has promised structural reforms, alongside monetary action, to drag the country out of decades of slow growth. The jury is out on whether he is making sufficient progress.
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Risk models have come under the spotlight as markets fear that portfolios are at risk of interest-rate volatility amid swings in government bond markets. Concerns are growing that financial institutions and institutional accounts might be over-exposed to large paper losses – but the devil, as ever, is in the details.
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Talk of a bond market sell-off has increased after a jump in US Treasury yields in recent days, but many investors are convinced that, with inflation and unemployment off target, the Federal Reserve will continue to buttress the market.
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Fears are growing that China’s elevated debt levels, diminishing returns from its bank-financed investment-led growth strategy and slowing GDP prospects mean a credit crisis is in the making.
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The ECB has achieved some successes over the past two years. Its liquidity injections stopped the bleeding in bank deposits, narrowed the gap in core-periphery bond yields and made markets more resilient to shocks such as Cyprus or Italy’s inconclusive elections.
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The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) is attempting to bring the credit default swap (CDS) market into the modern era of government intervention in credit markets with its most profound consultation paper in a decade as bank bail-in risks rise.
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Optimism around the UK economy has been picking up lately: improved industrial production, a rebound for sterling, even the outgoing Bank of England governor is sounding a little more upbeat. But these tender green shoots of recovery are deceptive. They will probably turn out to be weeds.
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For all the rhetoric about the importance of international cooperation in banking oversight, a lack of trust, regulatory fragmentation and a complex pipeline of divergent policy measures, particularly at the national level, are preventing the creation of a workable cross-border bank resolution system, observers warn.
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Banks and businesses are being forced to transform how they report liquidity – regulators want them to understand their balances on an intraday basis instead of using end-of-day forecasts. This requires fundamental change but the insight it provides will enable banks to increase controls, decrease operational risk, reduce buffer requirements and offer better services.
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The IMF’s ambitious plan to flesh out new sovereign debt restructuring plans is laudable, but it faces strong opposition from EU policymakers, adding more uncertainty to the asset class, as fears grow of official sector restructuring in Greece.
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The Bank of Japan’s bond-buying plan is bedevilled by contradictions: it seeks to promote financial stability but has triggered inevitable bouts of market volatility. What’s more, the central bank wants low yields and greater inflation expectations. A new communications policy is needed, analysts say.
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Compressed yields and high valuations in many asset classes are leading more fund managers to employ greater leverage to juice their returns to investor clients.