China’s incoming leadership must to do more to fix deep-seated structural problems hurting the economy. If they don’t face up to the challenge, the country’s future growth and social cohesion is at risk, says Louis Kuijs, Chief China Economist at RBS.

It will be one of the biggest shakeups in finance since the 2008 crash. But few financial firms have so far grasped the revolution about to hit derivatives trading as new rules are introduced on both sides of the Atlantic this year and next, says Fred Matt, Global Head of Prime Services Sales at RBS.

High yields and the ECB’s backstop, in theory, suggest pension funds could consider a tentative return to peripheral sovereign credits. However, reputational risk, febrile market sentiment and a lack of relative value means strategic real money institutional allocations are few and far between.

The 2022 World Cup, hosted by Qatar, has galvanised the country’s infrastructure investment and made it the fastest-growing area in the Middle East. But there’s more behind this growth than football, offering potential business opportunities for years to come.

Regulatory capture, a pro-cyclical hike in capital costs and the intrusive micro-management of liabilities – the volley of criticism over European insurance reform, known as Solvency II, echoes the dissent that has blighted new banking regulation. It’s not clear whether even the 2016 deadline will be met.

Gear up for another bumper year in the leveraged loan market – even in Europe – amid competitive yields, a pick-up in M&A activity and tentative signs of economic recovery.

Regulation forcing up the cost of borrowing has been eased and delayed. With loan volumes low and banks’ lending capacity high, now is the time for companies to consider loan financing. Pippa Crawford, Head of Loan Capital Markets EMEA at RBS, explains.

Febrile market sentiment, mutual suspicion between regulators and the divergence between American and European financial systems blight the push for a global level playing field in the form of harmonized capital and liquidity standards under Basel III.

Companies are being forced to choose between investing in growth or honouring their commitment to their pension plans with increased allocations, to bridge a growing asset-liability mismatch.

As China transitions to a market-based consumption-led economy, financial reform seems inevitable and yet China’s big four government-backed lenders continue to dominate the landscape. More competition is needed to boost innovation in the formal banking system and lending to small and medium-sized enterprises.

Pent-up global demand, Chinese economic dominion and monetary reform have fed optimism that the renminbi is on the path to becoming a global trade and investment currency. However, although currency internationalization will boost China’s growth model in the medium-to-long term, the short-term political and economic costs are huge.

The days of tight ranges and low volatility in the cash FX market is over amid weakening inter-currency correlations. Country-specific themes are developing as the risk-on/risk-off trade recedes and foreign exchange re-emerges as an uncorrelated asset class.

The Basel Committee’s loosening of the regulatory noose around non-standard derivatives still leaves many issues unresolved, such as the definition of parties, according to the new margin proposal, harmonization of rules and the macro-prudential objective of the non-cleared market.

Volatility is low across nearly all major asset classes. But companies should not be complacent because it will return, warns David Simmonds, Head of Currency and Emerging Markets at RBS.

Algorithms are set to become the norm for FX execution among institutional investors such as pension funds and corporates, and the change may come quicker than many expect.

The BRICs are in danger of becoming the RICs. Brazil is losing ground to its major emerging market rivals Russia, India and China, and could slip further if it doesn’t get to grips with chronic under-investment, says Flavia Cattan-Naslausky, Director of Latin America FX Strategy at RBS.

Democrats and Republicans will probably fail to agree measures that would prevent a $1.2 trillion spending cut over the next decade, a senior Republican Party strategist has told RBS.

Overzealous risk appetite, sloppy credit selection, herd mentality and tight yields despite a weak growth backdrop – fears are growing that the European high-yield market is sowing the seeds for a correction, despite the positive technicals of the market.

Development of technology combined with reduced bilateral credit friction has contributed to the fragmenting of liquidity into many different pools. These developments have added to the complexity of currency trading, say Toby Cole, managing director FX client advisory group and Jeremy Smart, global head of electronic distribution at RBS.

Use of China’s renminbi is increasing rapidly despite the country’s slowing economy and the time is now for the new leadership to push it as a major international currency. John McCormick, CEO, Markets & International Banking and Chairman, RBS Group, APAC, explains.

New industry efforts are in the offing to tackle the much-lamented shortage of global collateral, triggered by tighter regulation and strong structural demand for perceived safe assets. One such innovation is the Liquidity Alliance, which brings together central security depositories in Australia, Brazil, Spain and South Africa – but it’s an uphill battle.

Finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram has battled valiantly to feed the nimble elephant that is the Indian economy at its best, restarting its stalled fiscal and liberalization agenda. But market expectations are sky-high ahead of the election year and recent evidence that the economy has run out of steam.

A banking crisis, a sovereign debt crisis, an existential crisis. That was the easy part. After weathering multiple disasters, the spectre of a regional growth crisis that threatens to further exacerbate the region’s woeful debt burden has come to the fore after the shock contraction in German growth in the fourth quarter.

The two main pieces of regulation about to hit European financial markets and the derivatives market, in particular – Mifid and EMIR – have sparked fears over their unintended consequences to collateral velocity, liquidity and transparency. But some industry participants believe these regulatory shifts will yield benefits.

Since the Lehman collapse, bond and equity markets have knelt before their G7 central banks, as seemingly omnipotent monetary policymakers offer boundless liquidity. But amid fears over inflation risks and asset bubbles, is this the road to redemption or the path to perdition?

Low returns, new regulations, shifting business practices and – for the first time – fears over counterparty risk are challenging banks’ traditional cash-management products in an era of high corporate cash piles. Corporate treasurers are now mulling alternative short-term cash management solutions.

Credit markets are poised on a knife edge, with a huge pool of European corporate debt needing to be refinanced in the coming years in an era of scarce liquidity, fear some market players. But others believe market innovation will enable borrowers to scale the refinancing cliff.

Spanish corporates are poised to issue a record volume of bonds this year even though the country’s debt rating risks being cut to high-yield. Companies would have to shake up their funding strategies should Spain lose its investment-grade status, but for those yet to access the bond markets, a stiffer challenge may await, says Alberto Viarengo, Head of Corporate Debt Capital Markets for Southern Europe at RBS.

Don’t believe the doom-mongers. Currency managers take a sanguine view over the prospect of a full-blown global currency conflict, amid a tentative pick-up in growth and inflation.

Core EU nations pushed ahead with a controversial financial transaction tax last week, triggering the ire of financial participants, who argue the tax will drain much-needed liquidity and capital.