Russia and Ukraine

The pandemic and the war in Ukraine have brutally exposed the fragility of global supply chains.

India’s refusal to take a side over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is typical of a geopolitical approach that aims to keep everyone onside – to India’s advantage. Doing so helps the country to keep inflation in check, the one threat to an exceptionally powerful domestic story that is enticing the banking sector.

Ukraine’s recent debt restructuring agreements with international bondholders give it a better prospect of returning to market once its war with Russia ends. But the IMF – more used to pulling countries out of purely economic crises – faces a policy challenge in assisting a country at war.

With Turkey maintaining its ties with Russia, the risk of secondary sanctions against Turkish banks rises. But even if such sanctions are targeted, the central bank’s policies are already risking a deeper crisis.

If Russia stops the gas this winter, the damage to European banks will be worse than Covid, and Germany will be at the centre of the storm.

China’s support for Russia is part of its strategy to reduce the world’s dependence on the greenback – might it work?

The idea of capping the price of Russian oil and gas exports sounds good in theory, but it might be better to test methods for energy rationing.

Kyrylo Shevchenko, governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, has been corresponding with Euromoney as war rages in his country. Here he tells us how the central bank has kept the banking system operational and protected the currency in extraordinary circumstances.

SocGen’s deal to sell Russian lender Rosbank back to Vladimir Potanin’s Interros Capital is painful, but could help it to move on from the war in Ukraine.

Without Russia, Raiffeisen will be a different entity – one focused on safer countries in the former Habsburg heartlands. The low home-market profitability that Russia once served to mitigate, however, will be more evident than ever.

A number of commodity currencies have received an unexpected boost from the conflict in Ukraine as Western economies look to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels from Russia more rapidly than previously planned.

A combination of geographical position and commodity strength is working in the country’s favour.