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  • There are some macro events in the next few years that will influence how the British economy goes and how British banking shares perform. The two most important for me are the fate of the Conservative-led coalition government at the May 2015 elections and whether or not the UK remains in the European Union. If the Conservatives stay in power and the UK stays in the EU, things should be fine. If either of these things does not happen, I would expect British banking shares to suffer. The UK chancellor of the exchequer, George Osborne, might well experience a warm glow when he contemplates his investment in Lloyds Banking Group, but I have no doubt he scowls as he ponders the quagmire that RBS represents. The UK taxpayer has an 80% stake in RBS and there is no clear exit strategy in sight. Indeed, since the chief executive, Stephen Hester, was unceremoniously elbowed aside last month, the bank has resembled a rudderless wreck, listing from side to side. "Amateur central," a source sniffed. "Sacking the chief executive when you have no clear successor in place is pure folly."
  • Wealthy Brazilians’ traditional dependence on positive real interest rates for investment returns has been undermined. Euromoney’s roundtable of private bankers discusses how wealth managers are developing new investment opportunities for their clients and how those clients are responding.
  • Activity and prices remain buoyant in China’s gold markets despite the slip in prices in the west.
  • The end of the commodities super-cycle of rising prices is being accompanied by a series of humiliating reverses for some of the biggest bank traders in the energy and metals markets. These banks might struggle to retreat to a sustainable, client-based commodities business model, given over-ambitious former revenue targets, the over-sized egos of some of the main players involved, and the extent to which they have alienated customers and regulators.
  • The Archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby has started his incumbency with a bang – or should that be, a bank.
  • When António Horta-Osório took over Lloyds Banking Group in 2011, a once great institution was on its knees. The scale of the challenge he faced surprised even the new chief executive. Two-and-a-half years later, Lloyds is in the black, posting £2.1 billion in first-half profit, paving the way for the UK government to divest its 39% stake and begin discussions with regulators over resuming dividends. Euromoney tells the inside story of one of the great post-financial crisis turnarounds.
  • Brazil private banking debate: Brazil’s private banks adapt to a changing economy
  • Vince Cable, the UK’s business secretary, has coined a phrase. He described the continuing efforts of the Bank of England to make banks in the country hold more capital as being one of the biggest brakes on economic recovery.
  • Bank CFOs warn market of mortgage impact; drop in refinancings to hit revenues.